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Wilmington North Carolina and Surrounding Beaches Real Estate Sales, and Rental Market Report... Yes it's true, the national housing crisis is having an effect on the Wilmington area, but when compared to national data, Wilmington is one of the best fairing cities in America , and I can prove it. In the past I cited a few sources to back up what I said, in this update, I have compiled tons of research and articles that explicitly explain why the fundamentals of the Wilmington NC economy have us poised for a massive boom after our global economy stabilizes. As of right now, the average home price in Wilmington is slipping, but given our global economy, it's surprisingly strong. For the entire MLS area, mostly New Hanover County , the average sales price is only down about 6% from the highs. Almost all of that occurred in the last 5 months. |
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For my buyers: I speak to many buyers, and they are literally upset about home prices in Wilmington . While I have to admit sellers have been slow to come around, don't expect to hear stories of massive foreclosures such as in Florida , and California . Wilmington has far too many amazing attributes to slow down too much. That doesn't mean that it's not a good investment. |
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Sometimes you have to pay a little more to be the best. I can cite 100 different articles forecasting huge growth for Wilmington and NC, so be careful about sitting the sidelines for too long. When it breaks loose, it is going to boom! I have said it before, and I can't emphasize it enough. While prices may come down in the next year or two, a great deal that fits your needs typically only comes around a couple times a year. It will be Spring of 2010 soon. ( This is when I forecast Wilmington pulling away from the rest of the country and making huge increases all around ) Even in light of a full on recession, I doubt you will see the average price drop much more than 15% in this area. Of course on Carolina and Kure Beaches homes are selling for almost 100% less than they did three years ago . This is the best place to find amazing deal s, as these owners are victims of a HUGE, classic real estate bubble. Wilmington is currently being effected by a global slowdown, and this will certainly benefit the buyer for at least another year, but don't expect to steal a cheap home in this area. Affordable housing is nonexistent in Wilmington , and cheap homes will barely depreciate. The million dollar homes will actually suffer the most , and therefore present the best opportunities.
For my sellers , don't make the mistake of thinking this problem will blow over quickly. If there is one thing I know about housing, it's that it's seldom a quick process. You may have noticed that I said prices could still fall 15% from their highs a year ago. Especially for higher priced homes, that is still a substantial figure. I have said it before, if you think you may have to sell anytime in the next 3 years, I would sell now. If you think you may have a problem making your payment at some point in the next 3 years, then you will want to sell now, and for a competitive price. Don't make the mistake of chasing the market down. I have attached a great article at the bottom about a couple of homeowners who held out for too long.
Reasons why Wilmington is poised for a huge recovery in the next few years.
Huge improvements to the Wilmington ports. With the weak dollar, and Asian growth, exports have increased substantially around America . Through recent upgrades, the Wilmington Port is reaping great rewards as a result. The Milken Institute's study of Best Performing Cities in America cited this as the #1 reason for ranking Wilmington at #2 in the nation in terms of growth and prosperity. See the attached report at the bottom.
Substantial cut backs in building permits and new homes (Supply) due to sewer moratoriums, and decreased demand. Building permits are down more than 20% on average compared to last year. See the attached report at the bottom.
North Carolina is ranked in the top 3 according to several studies of the Best Business Climates in America . Strong business growth from Asheville , to Charlotte , to Raleigh , on over to Wilmington are making North Carolina one of the hottest spots in the world. See the attached reports at the bottom.
Several cities in North Carolina have been named as the most desirable places in America to live. With a huge part of the Wilmington homeowner population living in other NC cities, this is great news.
General Electric and the increased spending on nuclear energy have already, and will continue to have a huge impact on our local economy. In the process of hiring 900 new employees, I have personally worked with GE relocation employees. Their growth will also substantially contribute to the local tax base.
Stock Tip: I don't normally do this, but PPDI is a stock to look into. In fact I never do this. While researching a proposed expansion, I came across several articles stating that they recently reported 22% higher than expected NET INCOME so far this year !!! Their stock, hasn't seemed to react yet. The expansion is a proposal to add another 400K sqft high rise to their world headquarters downtown. This will employ nearly 1000 more highly educated professionals, and doctors.
The Wilmington Convention Center is going to have a profound effect on this entire area in my opinion. Although it coincided with a national housing boom, the Marriott and Convention Center is what eventually made Carolina Beach a well know beach for 2 nd homes. Carolina Beach experienced price increases of nearly 300% on many properties. I spoke to hundreds of people who found out about Carolina Beach as a result of an event, or simply lodging at the new Marriott, and this is what drove prices so high. I expect the Wilmington Convention Center will also open this area up to hundreds of millions of people across the world as word of mouth spreads about our world class location... Carolina Beach will also be adding another major player to their skyline as well. Hilton is in the process of building a world class hotel in good ol Carolina Beach . The convention center alone will employ over 1200 people, bring tens of thousands of additional vacationers a year to our area, and add 1.5 million dollars a year to our tax base. The real benefit will be the world wide exposure. In addition, the unbelievable Hotel Indig o that will service the convention center will be a major employer as well.
Last month in Wilmington , the average days on market was 28 days longer than last year. On average in 08 it's been about 15 days longer. While you can't judge from one month, it is still a downward acceleration. The Wilmington market is obviously softening, and it could continue for well over a year. However, Wilmington residents have proven their ability to ride out a storm. Want to View a FULL Wilmington Area Market Report Complete with the Articles Mentioned Above? Click Here... |
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What's going on in my business...
Even though the market is still recovering at the moment, I have managed to stay busy working with buyers and sellers. Although my "pay per hour worked" has gone down quite a bit, (working more for less money) I can't complain. Considering that only 50% of the brokers in our MLS region sold even one listing last year, I am proud to have sold well over 1 million dollars in 2007. While it's nice to achieve a figure like that, I am well aware that production is a minor piece of the puzzle. Many brokers hire tons of assistants, pay for massive lead campaigns, then sell homes via quantity of leads rather than with quality of service. More importantly, I maintained my 100% customer satisfaction goal in 2007. I was able to do this by giving exclusive, personal attention to my clients. I like to think of myself as an investment advisor, rather than someone a client calls every 5 years or so. I love to discuss real estate strategy, often for my client's homes in other parts of the country.
Last year was really a huge year for me. I added several new features to help market my listings that are truly revolutionary, and have earned a huge response from buyers. As of now, I am the only broker in the area providing a virtual tour complete with a video walk through that makes you feel like you are in the home, a Google Earth flyover that feels like an aerial tour of the community, and 3D floor plans for certain listings. I also take my photographs very seriously, and have recently began experimenting with HDR photography which is meant to capture tones and levels a typical camera cannot.
2007 also brought one other major addition to my business. By chance, I began managing a few long term rentals for clients who wanted to wait for a better time to sell, and without much effort my rental business took off. I am currently managing quite a few rental properties, and have grown to really enjoy this aspect of the industry. Despite hearing horror stories from my colleagues about rentals, my policies, marketing, and virtual showings, supply me with a steady stream of excellent tenants, with excellent credit and references. The procedures that I learned from Caroline while managing vacation rentals, have served me well in my new ventures. If you know of anyone who may benefit from an excellent property manager, please keep me in mind.
Perhaps equally important, is the fact that I have carved out a niche in the Wilmignton area real estate market. Considering that so many of my clients are from out of town, I have taken technology and convenience to the next level. Many people are amazed to hear that I have listed, and sold homes having never met the homeowner. Even in this slow market, I have also managed to sell homes using just my revolutionary virtual showing. Whether it's presenting my listings in a way that makes buyers/renters have to see more, or giving buyers an aerial tour of nearby schools, parks, and beaches, my clients enjoy knowing that their investment is being well managed from every angle. My clients are typically looking for a broker who can keep them up to date on what's going on in a clear, convenient manor. Many of my clients love the fact that I have compiled many of my services into short easy to follow videos, that have made the traditional listing presentation obsolete. I will soon be moving to a paperless office in which all important documents will be hosted online where my clients will be able to login and view / print them at any time. My understanding of repairs, construction, rentals, sales, and just as importantly technology, is invaluable in this type of market. In this information age in which drastic changes are being forged in every industry, I found in 2007 that one of the most valuable things I can do for my clients is research. My flexibility to change is the number one way I have stayed ahead of my colleagues. The world has changed more in the last 10 years than in the 100 before that. Therefore, I constantly research what techniques are selling homes today. Considering that the internet is still very young, breakthroughs can occur over night. My clients don't have time to read hundreds of newsletters and blogs a month about trends and changes in the industry, and that is where I step in. Furthermore, I receive hundreds of solicitations a month for tools and methods of selling homes, and I consider each one so as to make sure I am doing everything I can for my clients.
John F. Kennedy once said: "Change is the law of life, and those who look only to the past or the present are certain to miss the future."
My name is Ralph "The House" Hunter, with Victory Real Estate. I have been selling real estate in the Wilmington area for 5 years now. I have experienced many different markets, and enjoy watching things play out. I have lived in Wilmington my entire life, and really love being directly invloved in it's growth, and development. I plan to build my firm into a powerful local brand focused on real estate advice and service, rather than sales.
Wilmington NC, Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Southeastern NC, Wilmington, Wilmington Beaches, Wilmington Real Estate
Wilmington Area Real Estate Market and Trends Report...
22-25% Chance of SELLING home on area beaches! BUYERS are stealing beautiful homes all across the Wilmington area despite population BOOM! 40% of homes selling in Wilmington ...
"The difference between death and taxes is death doesn't get worse every time Congress meets." --Will Rogers
Huge things are happening all over the Wilmington area. Perhaps the most interesting are the thousands of jobs being produced in the near future. Another huge facility is coming to the area. Having almost 1 million square feet, a proposed state of the art distribution center will be quite a site just 5 minutes outside of Wilmington . The developer is in the process of engineering the infrastructure now. The construction of this building alone will create an economic engine for the area. Once finished, the various tenants would undoubtedly provide hundreds, or thousands of jobs. In addition, it would bring high income relocations, tax benefits, and the main use, massive state shipping port additions to the area.
Also, FORBES released it's top 100 metro areas for business and careers, and the results were point blank startling. First of all, this laid back beach town is competing with the biggest cities in America for career opportunities? 5 NC cities in the top 50!! More than any other state in America . Wilmington was #38, and Raleigh was #1. That's fine by me, we have the beach. That also means that thousands of affluent buyers from Charlotte & Raleigh will want nothing more than a vacation home that's just 2 hours away. Despite an economic slowdown elsewhere, multiple national hotel chains are working on projects downtown, and on the beaches. Our tourist industry is also booming! As a native of Wilmington , one thing I have witnessed is how our tourist driven economic machine has always been buffered from the rest of the country's problems. Year after year, it has never really faltered. The more the corporate job market continues to grow, that will change, but you can bank on it for some time still. Unemployment in this area is still lower than the national average as well. I can literally go on for hours about the opportunities in the Wilmington area right now (ask my wife and friends), but I will save that for another time. With so much growth, it's obvious that the Wilmington area housing market will make an astounding recovery. I'm not only telling my clients this, I am also living it. Jenna and I are in the process of finding a new home. We will rent our current home, waiting for the return of a seller's market, then sell it. We are also going to use this year as an opportunity to buy a beach house. With the right plan, we believe we will be able to cover all of the expenses on both properties, with rental income, and tax savings. This also brings me to my next point, what's the #1 sign that our market is doing well? It's still easy to get property loans. Despite the media's portrayal of a locked down credit market, my client's have had no problems.
Buyers:
In light of so much negative publicity, I understand how it may be tough to make that decision to jump in, but let me pose a question. In these shaky economic times, what else are you doing with your money? Savings and bonds rates have been nearly wiped out by the Fed's recent rate cuts, and will continue to go down. Commercial real estate which historically follows residential, is now on the same track housing was. Commodities, precious metals, etc are demonstrating all the obvious signs of a bubble about to burst. Even blue chip stocks with low returns cause palpitations once a week these days. Even in the technology age, 2008 has shown little tech innovation. Bottom line, we are in a type of recession. It's scary to have cash in hand considering the fed prints more every day. The value of money right now is in serious jeopardy. The fundamentals of real estate however never change. When the population is booming, the job market is strong, and the supply of homes is well regulated, the path is clear. Despite all that, sellers are terrified. Many of them bit off much more than they can chew, and amazing deals are being forged. Donald Trump said, "This is the market where fortunes are made." Also, with such a massive stimulus package meant for the hardest hit markets, wouldn't it make sense that this will create a boom in the markets that are still doing okay? You may be in a position where you want to buy, but have to sell your home first. No problem, consider this.
Sellers:
As I stated, selling in Wilmington right now is completely different than selling in other parts of the country. First of all, many parts of the nation have just begun to see tough times. In places lacking the fundamentals of strong jobs ( Ohio ), or supply regulation ( Miami ), expect to see major losses now, and for some time. If you get serious about your price and sell now, you may avoid a massive long term catastrophe. If your competition is at 200K, drop your price to 190K, then quickly to 185K if need be. In a declining market, it's going to happen eventually anyways right? Furthermore, when reduced to paper, it's usually clear that your expenses will wipe out gains from a higher price, considering your home will take longer to sell, and may be depreciating astonishingly fast. I see it all the time, one distressed seller can drop the value of an entire community 5% over night. While it may be a bad time for you to sell, it's also a bad time to sell in Wilmington . The difference, it won't be for much longer at all. You can typically find an equally good deal here, to what the buyer found in your home.
If you are selling in Wilmington , my advice is somewhat different unless you HAVE to sell, then that advice is even more important. As much as I think it is the time to buy, the inverse is true for selling. When considering selling, it's important to keep your emotions to a minimium. A good broker is the best way to do this.
With so much negative media, fear has become a driving force for many sellers. However, it's important that you not confuse risk with fear. By risk I am referring to your tolerance for further depreciation. Considering that anything is possible, if further depreciation is going to put you at great risk of foreclosure, or harming yourself, then that would warrant selling. However, if you are just afraid that you will lose money you don't absolutely have to have, you already did. Batten down the hatches, find a great renter for vacant homes, and thank me in the future by listing your home with me. What other broker would tell you that?
Now for the numbers.
Beach Property:
Carolina and Kure Beaches are still quite the buyer's market, although we are quickly working through the active inventory of homes. Down from nearly 1000 active properties just a few months ago, buyer's currently have about 700 homes to choose from. Also, in March of 2007, the average sold price of a 3 BR home was 369K, in March 08, a healthy 453K. Driven by larger high end properties, home prices still fell from this time last year though. Lower priced homes are selling better than more expensive homes. The average days on market also dropped from 205 in 07 to 120 last month. Wrightsville Beach is experiencing a different situation. Apparently the market in WB was the last to cool off in our area. Therefore they appear to be experiencing the absolute bottom. Only 6 properties sold in March of 08, opposed to 96 one year ago. The days on market also went up from 143 in 07, to 179 this year. I would expect to see a faster recovery here though, because there was less investor speculation on WB.
In the last 6 months on Carolina Beach , 22% of MLS listings actually sold. Kure Beach has seen 24% of it's listings sell, and Wrightsville Beach has sold 25% of it's listings in the last 6 months. That may sound bad to sellers, but consider that only a year ago those numbers were barely double digits.
Wilmington Property:
So far this spring has not been something to write home about. The inventory seems to be slipping, but the number of units sold is as well. We sold 136 units in March 08, compared to 294 in 07. The average days on market has risen just 9 days, and the average price dropped 30K from 07. Not the best numbers considering that it's the spring market. Seller's who aren't serious now, will probably be holding their homes for another year. This doesn't mean now is not the time to buy. Like the JP Morgan purchase of Bear Stearns, the deal is much more important than the timing. If you find the right home, there may never be a better time to buy.
Wilmington NC Population by Year Change Rate
2000 75,838 N/A
2001 90,084 18.78%
2002 90,620 0.60%
2003 91,419 0.88%
2004 93,371 2.14%
2005 95,476 2.25%
Vs. State Change Rate
My name is Ralph "The House" Hunter, with Victory Real Estate. I have been selling real estate in the Wilmington area for 5 years now. I have experienced many different markets, and enjoy watching things play out. I have lived in Wilmington my entire life, and really love being directly invloved in it's growth, and development. I plan to build my firm into a powerful local brand focused on real estate advice and service, rather than sales.
Wilmington NC, Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Southeastern NC, Wilmington, Wilmington Beaches, Wilmington Real Estate
I recently noticed something that startled me quite a bit. As a result of managing long term rentals, I am very familiar with typical monthly rental rates in the area. Very recently I have noticed a very dramatic decline in the rate renters are paying. How will this affect housing? First, when someone is in the market for housing, the rental option is beginining to look like a much better investment for the short term. In fact, I have noticed a huge surge in the number of renters, despite a decline in rates. Second, the lease rate decline has yet to be felt much. As leases begin to renew, a lot of home owners will be surprised, and perhaps distressed to find out that there investment will be making them 10% less this year than last. I think we still have some time before we see the abolute bottom. Of course, if you will be looking for anything long term, as I have said all along, the fundamentals for this area are absolutely great. Even as an investment when you consider that everything in America right now is declining.
My name is Ralph "The House" Hunter, with Victory Real Estate. I have been selling real estate in the Wilmington area for 5 years now. I have experienced many different markets, and enjoy watching things play out. I have lived in Wilmington my entire life, and really love being directly invloved in it's growth, and development. I plan to build my firm into a powerful local brand focused on real estate advice and service, rather than sales.
Wilmington NC, Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Southeastern NC, Wilmington, Wilmington Beaches, Wilmington Real Estate
Ralph "The House" Hunter is an experienced Wilmington NC area broker. He is an Exclusive Real Estate Advisor. Unlike other firms, Victory Real Estate is a neighborhood brand, here to serve clients
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