How does it look in our area?
Let's start by saying thank goodness that awful Winter is over! With December bringing us record breaking rain fall, then over a foot of snow which froze and then more rain on top of frozen snow, it was dismal and mucky. I cannot remember any other time driving through the area and seeing quite that amount of downed trees and yards saturated, simply unable to hold any more damp.
Many homes lost power several times, and unless they were able to get out of the house and into a hotel, they were stuck like several of my friends with felled trees blocking either the street or the drive.
We all made it through in relative good humor though, and it is the hard times that make families stronger. Kids always remember the "fun" stuff like sleeping on the floor in front of the fire in a sleeping bag, or candlelight board games.
Now, we are all the more grateful for Spring, the flowers this year are lovely. I think all that wet helped the tulips and daffodils.
What has the Spring done for the real estate market and specifically your town? Let's see.
Market News
Well the Spring market did bud despite the horrible weather and we saw quite a flurry of sales in Feb and March, especially in the higher end. Could be a combination of pent up demand and of course in the Rumson area, the Wall St. bonus. I hear that Wall St is hiring again and that bonuses are back. This might not sound like good news to the man on Main St but from where Monmouth County stands it is good news. Like it or not we are a bedroom community for Wall St, only 45 mins to 1hr away by fast ferry or train. These commuters are a large part of our local economic community. not just for real estate, but for many local businesses.
The tax break for first time home buyers was not something in this particular area that I saw much of, but I am sure that we benefitted by the move up buyer upgrading to their next house in the area. The deadline for having an accepted contract for the tax break is only days away at the end of this month. Although I have heard talk of it being instigated again later in the year.
Perhaps, more importantly is job stimulus, New Jersey has continued to see job losses in the past years, and we need to turn that tide around. Let's hope our new governor can get a grip on government spending and address job creation in New Jersey. Budget cutting is never pleasant, and nobody wants to be the one getting the cut, but it has to be done.
Your Town
Some towns are showings good signs of recovery while others not yet Some price points are experiencing gaps in the market of good inventory and when a well priced home comes on, there is little to compete and sells for full price and has a bidding war. Yes even in 2009 and year to date, we have experienced bidding situations. it all comes down to good pricing. Priced to attract attention from the buyer who is likely to buy the home. Good pricing leads to good closing prices. Over pricing leads to stale homes and anxious sellers getting low or no offers. Each price range is different, but here is an overview on a few towns year to date, from this time last year. Note: this reflects sales not prices.
ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS + 25%
FAIR HAVEN + 8.33%
LITTLE SILVER + 120%
MIDDLETOWN + 36.36%
MONMOUTH BEACH - 42.45%
RED BANK + 45.45%
RUMSON + 72.72%
What this does not mean is that the real estate market is likely to see a jump in pricing. This move to recovery in large part has been fueled by lower pricing, low interest rates and pent up demand. There is still a lot of inventory out there not sold. Within each of these towns I also have available what percentages at each price point. Please email me at carolynn@resourcesrealestate.com if you would like more specific information.
I am also happy to provide a confidential market analysis for your own home.
If you tried selling your home and were unsuccessful. please feel free to call me to review your pricing for the price point in your town. Happy to help.
Carolynn
What to expect in the market in 2010.
I saw the market pick up in the second half of 2009, and consumer confidence increase. In September we saw our luxury listings moving more quickly and with bidding situations occurring. Although prices will remain flat in many markets, we may see a slight increase in pricing in this area due to low supply of well priced homes. Buyers are most definitely value driven and are watching the market closely. Top areas, both resort and with easy access to major cities will be the first to recover, as indeed they were the last to fall. I believe we are cruising along the bottom, and although I believe there are still short sales and foreclosures in all price ranges still to occur, we have started to witness the end of the freefall and there will be more stability in housing for 2010.Sellers should be cautious not to jump for joy too high with their asking prices. Value pricing will be their best asset.
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GREAT NEWS Washington, December 01, 2009 Pending home sales have risen for nine months in a row, a first for the series of the index since its inception in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®. |
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Q. Is it worth putting my house on the market now over the holidays, or should I just wait for the Spring?
Carolynn Ozar-Diakon
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As you can imagine, that is the question that I get asked the most.
On my website I have a market report section that is updated every quarter.
Click on your town on the right hand side bar for your updated report. If your town is not included- email us and we will send one to you.
You may be surprised to note that in Rumson,for instance, the price ranges that are currently selling the most are $500,000 - $600,000 and over $2M Homes. Over $3M still take longer on average - the luxury market for obvious reasons always takes longer in any market.
Rates remain low, inventory is still high, so plenty of choice, and with some very motivated sellers It is a GREAT time to buy. I believe in real estate. I bought my first home when I was 19 years old in London, which is currently one of the highest priced cities in the world!. I continue after 20 odd years in this business to believe in it. I have continued to buy and just recently purchased a home in Middletown and a 1768 farmhouse in Eatontown.
For those first time buyers or if you have not owned a home for three years the $8000 credit is good until December 1st, 2009. Use it.
The second most common question - " When will we hit bottom"?. Simple answer - "I don't know', and guess what neither does anyone else!!. I do sense the decline in buyer confidence abating and that we appear to be leveling off. This does not mean that prices will suddenly go back up, as with any cycle it takes a long time for the cycle to complete. It does not spike and plummet like the stock market, and I do not see prices going up anytime soon. Therefore,my advice to the seller who is thinking of waiting- you might have to wait for several years just to get back to where we were 2 years ago. For the buyer, I advise moving ahead in this period before mortgage rates move upward and change the affordability factor. Smart sellers have been moving with the market, pricing correctly the first time and selling quickly, freeing up equity to invest in other real estate.
Remember, selecting a realtor is not like choosing a pair of shoes. Please consider the size of the transaction before deciding to place the responsibility upon a friend or acquaintance to represent you. Besides intelligence and knowledge, look for integrity and ethics. Some agents do less transactions but with better results. Speaking as an agent consistently in the top 1% of my industry, I encountered agents wiling to take short cuts with their ethics and integrity; these actions usually represent the agents interests better than yours. Meaning you may get your house sold, but at the short end of the stick, and sometimes end up being in a position of having to take less than you might have.
Even a good agent is only as good as their client allows them to be. In some cases the client ignores good advice and ends up selling for less later on.
When I opened Resources Real Estate, I decided to open a specialized boutique agency that would "out behave" other agencies and provide an unprecedented level of expert advice and service to clients. In some instances it may not be what the client wants to hear, but it is only when one has factual honest information the client can make informed decisions. A few years ago, we realized that in order to maintain our high level of quality, not only did we have to continue to be selective with our choice of agents,we also would have to be selective with our clients. We have evolved into the premier 'go to; private boutique agency. We will not compromise our standards to become a McAgency, with high numbers, and a string of unhappy clients. I suggest you interview us first before making any real estate decisions, and get the honesty your deserve - if we are not a good fit, then by all means we both have the option not to work together. Either way our consultation is at no charge.
A large part of my business comes as personal referrals from previous clients and from professionals like accountants and attorneys. I appreciate the confidence placed in me and I invite you to watch some client videos to get more of a sense of what we are about at RESOURCES Real Estate.
Featured article in the Monmouth Journal- October 3, 2008
As market experts, economists, and political pundits weigh in with their opinion of the bail out and other assorted plans to move forward, I can only hope whatever path chosen is laced with common sense.
Any fool should known that prices do not go up forever and that interest rates do not come down indefinitely. The real estate market is not a ball-it does not "bounce back" or plunge in a matter of days. It quietly and reliably cycles up around and down again and so on. In fact it is always in the process of one or the other. It is probably the best and most consistent long term investment strategy there is. I am not a stock market investor, I am a real estate investor, and I can tell you with certainty that I am looking to buy. I am making offers and buying what I can that meets my criteria.
I have never been an investor in the stock market, mainly because I do not understand it will enough and my expertise and interest has always been in real estate. Sometimes, I have felt a little dumb not being a savvy stock market player, but in the last few days- I have been feeling pretty smart!
I have been a broker for over 20 years and managed an office during the tough times of the late 80s, I have seen this happen before. I have some advice for both sellers and potential buyers.
To sellers: We have been cycling down since the second have of 2005, and yet many sellers have been valiantly trying to achieve 04 and 05 pricing. It is not going to happen, it was not going to happen last week and it sure is not going to happen next week. If your agent has not been firmly telling you what to do...and is in the yes-ing you to death business: Get a new agent. Now is not the time for the weak. Tough times call for tough agents.\
Conversely, if you have a tough agent, you are receiving ongoing communication and you know that truthfully there is nothing that the agent is not doing...don't jump ship from one agency to another. Sit down with your agent and the broker and discuss options and ideas. Frankly, agencies spend a lot of money on marketing a property and jumping ship-if you are not following their advice-it is definitely not going to help. If the price is not right, it will not be right with another agency. If the house does not show well, it will not show well with another agency. Same thing with showing...now is not the time to be coy; buyers are in shorter supply they have more to look at. Make sure you can get them in your property without any obstacles. Such as, "try back tomorrow, 24 hr notice, pick up key from office" etc. Get as showing friendly as possible. Is it inconvenient? YEP. It is a necessary inconvenience if you want to sell your house. Your tough agent should be telling you that.
To Buyers: Don't overlook this opportunity that is on our hands: low interest and lowering prices. Don't try to calculate the bottom, it could be tomorrow-it could be 6 months from now. Whenever it is, it will be irrelevant if the interest rates have gone up! I have noticed that the Fed did not lower interest rates as a response to the financial news this week. The Fed will not lower them forever. In fact, during previous recessions the interest rates have gone up. Use this time to make great deals, like the investors are. Just remember that on the whole-real estate is a long term investment, and when it is also a short-term investment-that's a beautiful thing. Don't buy above your means, don't borrow based on tomorrow's pay check. There is more to choose from today than in previous years, and there ARE lenders that are willing to lend money. Not every bank forgot the common sense practice of making smart loans to qualified buyers.
In summary, whether a buyer or a seller, be smart, use some common sense and a tough agent who will negotiate on your behalf. Now is not the time for timidity, and is definitely not the time for inexperience or less than a full time commitment from your real estate professional.
Carolynn Ozar-Diakon
Broker/Owner, RESOURCES Real Estate
Email: carolynn@resourcesrealestate.com
Just heard on the 6pm news that the cute dolphins entertaining us from the river banks of Rumson and Middletown in the Navesink river - are in fact,not dolphins but more likely bull sharks. Huh? Now that must come as a surprise to all those that went out on boats, including kayaks and canoes to get up close and personal with the dolphins!! My family took the "Resourceful" out to watch them cavort, and oohed and ahhed with the best of them.
It made me think a little about the local real estate market, (well lets face it, I am always thinking about the real estate market) and I saw a mini parallel. How you ask?
Well, it seems to me that buyers right now do not realize they are behaving like dolphins when they could be bull sharks. Not that I know much about bull sharks, but they just sound more assertive. In a buyer's market, buyers make low offers and pretty much have plenty to choose from. This buyer's market is not working that way. Many prospective buyers are sitting and waiting - rather than taking action,making offers and see what comes back.The opportunities are out there to be eaten up. Motivated sellers, low interest rates. Sounds like the perfect feeding ground. However right now, many buyers' appear to be acting more like cute dolphins than like sharks of any description. I don't think there are any sharks that take a wait and see approach, especially not bull sharks, unless there are bear sharks?!
Is it the constant media bashing that the real estate market got in the last few years that makes us view a home as purely a financial investment and pressures us to buy right at the bottom? When is right at the bottom? I have been a realtor for over 20 years and to date nobody has ever been able to predict the date of the absolute peak or the absolute bottom. What is known, is that real estate has perpetually cycled, always on the down or the up cycle. Historically it always cycles back up higher than it was before. Some real estate analysts are saying that the end of the downward cycle is close.
As it is impossible to perfectly time the market the average person buying or selling will gain on one end of the transaction to offset the other. Which is important to remember that generally it balances out. Although it is weighted on the side of the upward buyer. Speculators and investors with a shorter horizon are acting now, which is another indicator that now is the time to act. I have been making offers on investment properties recently, some I won some I lost. Real Estate is obviously a large part of my portfolio and especially my retirement, although those that know me, find it hard to believe that I would ever retire!!
There have been other indicators recently that the market is about to start its upswing. On a national level, existing home sales rose 15% in recent months, new home sales were also up 4.5%. Consumer confidence up 5 points in August over July.
Affluent homeowners increasingly are bullish about future real estate values. "Key findings from the annual survey of the ‘luxury' market demonstrate that the typical million-dollar homeowner is invested not only in the value of their home as a current part of their portfolios, but also see long-term gains coming from this investment," said Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. The survey polled 305 U.S. homes with a primary residence valued at $1 million ($2 million in California) or more and who had investable assets of more than $1 million. The average annual household income of this group was $754,000.
Jim Weichert was also quoted recently stating that "We have reached the bottom of the housing market and will soon begin to see improvements, by and large we are turning a corner. You might be guessing, but we are sure. Now is the time to buy real estate." I think Jim is right, the Summer is always slow except for closings of properties sold in the Spring. Buyers, sellers and the realtors are focused on the beach and vacations. Once mid September rolls around I believe we will see a positive upswing. Speaking of other agencies. At a dinner party recently, one guest was surprised to hear me say something positive about another agent, his assumption being that we are all sworn enemies. Nothing could be further from the truth, we all work in cooperation with each other, and I treat my fellow realtors with respect and I get treated the same way. In fact, I have made a point in getting along with other realtors in my career, it can only help my clients. I want the the other realtors out there to want to work with me rather than shudder at the thought. I can be firm and resolute in my representation to my clients without being rude and obnoxious. Now of course there are some out there like that, and we all know who they are! As an educated consumer one of the things to research when choosing a realtor is to find out how they are perceived in the industry. It could make or break a sale.
Year to date sales in our local towns:
Category - SingleFamily / Area: ATL - ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS
| Month | Year | Monthly Sales | Avg ListPrice | Avg Sale Price | % Diff Sell/list | Avg DOM | Curr Inventory | Months Inventory |
| January | 2008 | 1 | $399,900 | $360,000 | 90.02% | 57.0 | 30 | 30.00 |
| February | 2008 | 5 | $766,760 | $668,675 | 87.21% | 91.0 | 33 | 6.60 |
| March | 2008 | 3 | $405,933 | $391,333 | 96.40% | 62.0 | 33 | 11.00 |
| April | 2008 | 3 | $698,267 | $525,000 | 75.19% | 366.0 | 35 | 11.67 |
| May | 2008 | 4 | $409,750 | $390,625 | 95.33% | 112.0 | 40 | 10.00 |
| June | 2008 | 1 | $1,249,999 | $1,249,900 | 99.99% | 480.0 | 42 | 42.00 |
| July | 2008 | 4 | $360,700 | $326,250 | 90.45% | 85.0 | 44 | 11.00 |
| August | 2008 | 4 | $664,500 | $614,375 | 92.46% | 54.0 | 42 | 10.50 |
| Total | 25 | $619,476 | $565,770 | 91.33% | 163.4 | 37 | 16.60 | |
| Total | 2008-2008 | 25 | $619,476 | $565,770 | 91.33% | 163.0 | 37 | 17.00 |
Category - SingleFamily / Area: FAI - FAIR HAVEN
| Month | Year | Monthly Sales | Avg ListPrice | Avg Sale Price | % Diff Sell/list | Avg DOM | Curr Inventory | Months Inventory |
| January | 2008 | 3 | $1,923,300 | $1,721,833 | 89.52% | 94.0 | 46 | 15.33 |
| February | 2008 | 5 | $493,400 | $463,000 | 93.84% | 87.0 | 52 | 10.40 |
| March | 2008 | 2 | $589,950 | $584,950 | 99.15% | 156.0 | 53 | 26.50 |
| April | 2008 | 8 | $636,225 | $607,312 | 95.46% | 115.0 | 55 | 6.88 |
| May | 2008 | 8 | $902,612 | $846,750 | 93.81% | 42.0 | 59 | 7.38 |
| June | 2008 | 5 | $767,880 | $747,300 | 97.32% | 31.0 | 68 | 13.60 |
| July | 2008 | 3 | $769,633 | $733,333 | 95.28% | 66.0 | 73 | 24.33 |
| August | 2008 | 10 | $835,050 | $798,900 | 95.67% | 78.0 | 72 | 7.20 |
| Total | 44 | $864,756 | $812,922 | 94.01% | 83.6 | 60 | 13.95 | |
| Total | 2008-2008 | 44 | $864,756 | $812,922 | 94.01% | 84.0 | 60 | 14.00 |
Category - SingleFamily / Area: LIT - LITTLE SILVER
| Month | Year | Monthly Sales | Avg ListPrice | Avg Sale Price | % Diff Sell/list | Avg DOM | Curr Inventory | Months Inventory |
| January | 2008 | 4 | $667,175 | $634,200 | 95.06% | 41.0 | 54 | 13.50 |
| February | 2008 | 2 | $619,950 | $580,000 | 93.56% | 118.0 | 63 | 31.50 |
| March | 2008 | 4 | $854,725 | $810,000 | 94.77% | 122.0 | 68 | 17.00 |
| April | 2008 | 3 | $384,600 | $363,333 | 94.47% | 87.0 | 69 | 23.00 |
| May | 2008 | 3 | $862,300 | $858,667 | 99.58% | 150.0 | 71 | 23.67 |
| June | 2008 | 12 | $534,696 | $519,279 | 97.12% | 75.0 | 61 | 5.08 |
| July | 2008 | 11 | $891,336 | $811,909 | 91.09% | 150.0 | 55 | 5.00 |
| August | 2008 | 6 | $881,483 | $830,167 | 94.18% | 107.0 | 54 | 9.00 |
| Total | 45 | $712,033 | $675,944 | 94.93% | 106.3 | 62 | 15.97 | |
| Total | 2008-2008 | 45 | $712,033 | $675,944 | 94.93% | 106.0 | 62 | 16.00 |
Category - SingleFamily / Area: MID - MIDDLETOWN
| Month | Year | Monthly Sales | Avg ListPrice | Avg Sale Price | % Diff Sell/list | Avg DOM | Curr Inventory | Months Inventory |
| January | 2008 | 26 | $477,844 | $447,094 | 93.56% | 101.0 | 346 | 13.31 |
| February | 2008 | 33 | $418,476 | $389,888 | 93.17% | 94.0 | 355 | 10.76 |
| March | 2008 | 34 | $501,253 | $475,372 | 94.84% | 87.0 | 379 | 11.15 |
| April | 2008 | 36 | $605,067 | $570,636 | 94.31% | 103.0 | 399 | 11.08 |
| May | 2008 | 50 | $539,596 | $518,359 | 96.06% | 91.0 | 426 | 8.52 |
| June | 2008 | 49 | $493,226 | $477,134 | 96.74% | 64.0 | 436 | 8.90 |
| July | 2008 | 47 | $523,079 | $500,719 | 95.73% | 76.0 | 446 | 9.49 |
| August | 2008 | 62 | $504,313 | $483,673 | 95.91% | 86.0 | 445 | 7.18 |
| Total | 337 | $507,857 | $482,859 | 95.08% | 87.8 | 404 | 10.05 | |
| Total | 2008-2008 | 337 | $507,857 | $482,859 | 95.08% | 88.0 | 404 | 10.00 |
Category - SingleFamily / Area: MON - MONMOUTH BEACH
| Month | Year | Monthly Sales | Avg ListPrice | Avg Sale Price | % Diff Sell/list | Avg DOM | Curr Inventory | Months Inventory |
| January | 2008 | 1 | $949,900 | $965,000 | 101.59% | 10.0 | 19 | 19.00 |
| February | 2008 | N/A | $0 | $0 | 0% | 0.0 | 29 | 0 |
| March | 2008 | 2 | $1,797,000 | $1,691,250 | 94.12% | 138.0 | 34 | 17.00 |
| April | 2008 | 4 | $1,435,000 | $1,321,810 | 92.11% | 152.0 | 33 | 8.25 |
| May | 2008 | 3 | $661,967 | $630,833 | 95.30% | 129.0 | 35 | 11.67 |
| June | 2008 | 3 | $769,667 | $726,667 | 94.41% | 57.0 | 33 | 11.00 |
| July | 2008 | 3 | $925,967 | $871,633 | 94.13% | 92.0 | 37 | 12.33 |
| August | 2008 | 4 | $880,675 | $852,275 | 96.78% | 55.0 | 40 | 10.00 |
| Total | 20 | $1,060,025 | $1,008,495 | 95.14% | 90.4 | 37 | 12.75 | |
| Total | 2008-2008 | 20 | $1,060,025 | $1,008,495 | 95.14% | 90.0 | 37 | 13.00 |
| Month | Year | Monthly Sales | Avg ListPrice | Avg Sale Price | % Diff Sell/list | Avg DOM | Curr Inventory | Months Inventory |
| January | 2008 | 8 | $1,781,737 | $1,649,062 | 92.55% | 63.0 | 80 | 10.00 |
| February | 2008 | 6 | $2,085,333 | $1,926,167 | 92.37% | 182.0 | 93 | 15.50 |
| March | 2008 | 5 | $1,117,780 | $1,041,600 | 93.18% | 143.0 | 105 | 21.00 |
| April | 2008 | 7 | $923,114 | $873,929 | 94.67% | 82.0 | 108 | 15.43 |
| May | 2008 | 8 | $1,346,725 | $1,224,562 | 90.93% | 117.0 | 113 | 14.13 |
| June | 2008 | 6 | $996,150 | $937,902 | 94.15% | 64.0 | 120 | 20.00 |
| July | 2008 | 8 | $1,721,625 | $1,622,062 | 94.22% | 134.0 | 110 | 13.75 |
| August | 2008 | 7 | $1,103,271 | $1,006,071 | 91.19% | 98.0 | 112 | 16.00 |
| Total | 55 | $1,384,467 | $1,285,169 | 92.83% | 110.4 | 105 | 15.73 | |
| Total | 2008-2008 | 55 | $1,384,467 | $1,285,169 | 92.83% | 110.0 | 105 | 16.00 |
So lets all get bullish about real estate, there are future capital gains to be had at shark prices right now. If you are interested in statistics about any other town not shown here , please email.
In other news, I am looking for a few good men (or women). I have invested so heavily in websites in the last few years that I have an over abundance of qualified prospects coming in every day. I only hire a select few, but I am looking to expand right now, so if you want to know more about coming a professional real estate agent. Please call or email.
Carolynn Ozar-Diakon
Broker Owner
RESOURCES Real Estate
732-212-0440
Located in Rumson, New Jersey. Please contact me for the address by visiting our website or at info@resourcesrealestate.com.
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