Richard Eimers

Real Estate continues to be local in nature - if one was to look at a weather map - one would be more concerned about the local weather and less about the weather in areas 400 miles away - and so it is in real estate.

The concept of FIFO - is applicable here as well - the Destin Florida real estate market was arguably the first to crash - the fall began in September 2005 and it is showing signs that it is also going to be among the first out of this prolonged (3 1/2 years) downward market adjustment. The Destin to Seagrove Beach to Rosemary Beach real estate markets appreciated faster and higher than most U.S. real estate markets; we have also fallen faster and deeper.

The spreadsheet below demonstrates the comparison between last 6 months to the same 6 months the year prior of the Destin real estate market; specifically this area includes properties located from the Destin bridge to the east end of County Road 30-A. These stats come directly from the Emerald Coast Association of REALTORS MLS Database.

The spreadsheet above shows that over the last six months that inventory has fallen on average 15% per month while sales (Pending Sales) are up over 20% per month and Sold or recently closed sales on average are up over 10% per month with a average reduction in Expired Listings falling more than 20% per month. So we can here less inventory and more sales consistantly for the last 6 months - is this a trend, I suggest it is.

Those of you waiting for the bottom, I suggest you are seeing it here, like any yard sale those who show up first get the best choices and those who show up later get what was picked over. Yes this inventory will be replced by more inventory and yes these sellers will be less inclined to negotiate as aggressively as todays sellers.

This morning I read the article below published by the Housing Predictor an Independent Real Estate Market Forecaster and was written by Mike Colpitts, this article supports the senerio outlined above.

10 Signs to the Bottom of Real Estate Markets

The bottom of each real estate market in America won't occur with much fanfare. In fact, few people will realize that it's even happening when they do, and they're usually only recognized after the bottom has already hit.

The search for the elusive bottom to any real estate market is akin to finding the proverbial needle in a hay stack. Once they're fully realized, the elevator is usually on the way up and higher prices follow.

Bottoms to real estate markets are a lot like trying to determine when stocks in financial markets are at their lowest price. Veteran investors say it's a fool's game to try to find the bottom to make a buying decision because as you wait, study and calculate the tendency is to over analyze as the market makes its own moves and often leaves you in the lurch.

In these increasingly complicated financial times, troubled by the credit crunch finding a market's elusive bottom is no easy task. But here are 10 signs to ponder on whether the bottom of your market is near:

1. The inventory of listings is reducing as properties come off the market, especially those over priced places that have been sitting on the market rotting. Noticing fewer for sale signs in that neighborhood you're interested in buying a home or condo in these days?
2. The Mass Media spurs interest with talk of a bottom. Newspapers and television reporters speculate and ask the experts if a bottom is occurring like it's a national real estate market trend when all markets have their own local bottoms and are scattered over time.
3. Sales volume begins to pick up, slowly at first as pent up buyer demand results in more showings.
4. People are less fearful of the market.
5. People begin to talk about how much money there is to be made investing in real estate again.
6. Increasing telephone calls to realty offices on listings and for sale by owners.
7. The Fed finishes tinkering with interest rates at least for a while, trying to get a handle on how the markets are moving.
8. People commonly talk about the bottom occurring like it's a thing of the past with increasing consumer confidence.
9. Prices finally seem to stop dropping.
10. Financing becomes easier to obtain.

There aren't hard and fast rules to insuring that your real estate market is at the bottom. All bottoms are different after all, but one thing's sure. The bottom of markets have historically been for a much shorter duration than the top, which is one reason why most property owners are secure in their positions. Statistically, very few real estate buyers make their purchases at the bottom or the top. Most buy some where in between.

I sell residential properties in Destin Florida, these are resort properties, second homes and income producing vacation properties along the Gulf of Mexico. I have done this since Hurricane Erin & Opal, during Hurricane Ivan and since Hurricane Katrina. Let yo in on a little secret people love the Destin Beaches and they are not going to stop loving the Destin real estate.

What do you think happens when you buy real estate? Talk about the good Ronald Regan "Trickle Down Economics"; it affects everyone from the sellers to the lenders to the grocery store clerks to the waitresses, it affects just about every facet of our economy. Housing, not the stock market, not the auto industry and not the oil industry drives this economy.

The sooner we get it, the sooner we get our arms around it the sooner the greed ends and the sooner we realize that we are all Americans-Neighbors-Family the sooner this economy will recover.

I still am talking with a lot of sellers who still say "I'm not going to give it away" and I still am hearing from buyers saying "I haven't seen the housing market hit rock bottom". Frankly I have to tell both of them Mr. Seller 2005 has pasted and if you did not sell your property at some ridiculous price then its not going to happen now, next year or the year after that. The buyers I find myself asking how you will know when we have hit bottom and they tell me "I'll know". I say they will not know and I tell the sellers; Mr. Seller you will see no appreciation this year, at best you may see a 2% appreciation rate in 2010 and perhaps a 4% appreciation rate in 2011. So tell me Mr. Seller how long will you have to wait to see a selling price that you would find acceptable and how much is it going to cost you?

Here's the plan, sell now, take your losses and buy now and make your savings. Old Chinese Real Estate Proverb; "You Make Your Money on the Buy not on the Sell". Nothing has changed here this philosophy stands true. Whether we are within 2% or 5% of the bottom is immaterial. If we have reverted to the traditional real estate investing concepts, (which we have) then you should be buying for the 5-7 year hold and in the general scheme of things the 2-5% at or around the bottom of the market is a non-issue especially at these interest rates. And Yes lenders are lending money to buy real estate and at great rates.

Once people start to buy and inventory starts to come off the market don't you (Mr. Buyer) think that sellers will be less inclined to negotiate? And Mrs. & Mrs. Sellers don't make the same mistake you made this time last year when you saw a small spike in sales believe its time to increase your prices - negotiate aggressively.

So here is the Stimulus Package - Sell now, take your losses and Buy now - make your money; best part of it all is you will be helping this economy.