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Richard D Ferris Florida State Certified (FHA) Appraiser

Disney's Golden Oak Community - A Comparable Nightmare

I ran across an article today about a new community being developed near Disney.

The "Golden Oak" community was highlighted in a recent Orlando Sentinel article which states this community opened in October 2010.

The Golden Oak residential community is planned for the northeast corner of Walt Disney World resort with homes ranging from $1.5 million to $8 million.

And yet - this is the first I am hearing of it! No wonder, with homes over $1,000,000 and plans to have a resort hotel INSIDE the community - this one is going to be marketed to a select group of potential buyers!

A couple items I noted in the article:

Even though it lacks the chain-of-lakes backdrop that has helped establish Isleworth as Central Florida's premier home for pro athletes and entertainers, Golden Oak has perks that appeal to high-end buyers with young family members. Extras include years' worth of passes to Disney theme parks, early and late hours in the parks, and VIP transportation.

And

With guards, gates and old-world architecture, Golden Oak in no way resembles Disney's earlier entry in the housing market: Celebration, a community built in the 1990s that was marketed as more town than resort. Disney touted Celebration worldwide but has been more quiet about Golden Oak.

Estate lots in Golden Oak thread around the 18-hole championship golf course designed by Tom Fazio for the Four Seasons. Homeowners could end up playing on other Disney golf courses, though, because Four Seasons guests have tee-time priority over residents.

In addition to the amenities down the street at the Four Seasons, residents will have access to the Golden Oak Summerhouse, which is under construction and will feature a pool; yoga room; children's entertainment areas; and temperature-controlled storage for wine and other liqueurs. Membership in the club, mandatory for homebuyers, is $5,000 a year.

WOW - can you imagine perks like THAT when your out of state cousins want to come visit?!! Not only staying with you because you live in Florida, but also for the season passes and VIP transportation to Disney parks?!

But from an appraiser's point of view my big question is : Where the heck would you find COMPS for this community?

Isleworth Country Club has homes owned by famous celebrities and has amenities like a championship golf course, country club, and luxury amenities! But how about your very own resort hotel inside the gated community? Or access to multiple Disney golf courses? How do you adjust for the season passes for 4 theme parks?

All challenges that will hopefully make potential purchasers demand that a truly qualified residential appraiser be selected - rather than the fastest and cheapest typically ordered through most national appraisal management companies.

Orlando Set to Rebound (3%)

A recent report from the Florida Realtors site today, reported Orlando as one of the top 11 ‘combacks’ for 2011!!

 

I also heard the ads on the radio, sponsored by the Orlando Realtor’s association – about how NOW is a great time to buy

I would have to agree with them too!  Judging from the recent absorption rates in Orlando, it seems like trends may be turning!  There is still some uncertainty with the “shadow inventory” we hear about – but depending on if that is a trickle or a DUMP into the market – we may see a bottom on the market this year!  (FINALLY!)

Although my workload is still not seeing much by way of refinance or purchases (except REO purchases) – but then again, some of the ‘cheaper/faster’ appraisers out there may be interpreting “Customary and Reasonable” fees in a wholly lower fashion than I do!

 

Good luck Orlando! 


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Stalling foreclosure? Florida is a top runner - Stay in Your Home

I recently read an article in the Florida Realtors online blog (http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?id=252076 ) about how Florida is #2 in the nation for longest foreclosure process. Can you guess who is #1? New York!

I lived in New York too and remember their court processes and how often they favored the tenant, the homeowner, etc. I guess on one had this is a good thing because it can protect the consumer, giving them longer to make other arrangements, try to resolve the situation, etc.

On the other side of the coin, however, is the investor. Weather that is the bank, an institution of some sort or an individual, getting an asset (or in this case likely a liability) back into the stream of commerce – eventually is a good thing for the neighborhood.

As an appraiser, I often see vacant home after vacant home with no “For Sale” sign in front. I find later these are in the process of foreclosure and the occupants have vacated. What a sad story for all parties when this happens. I have a couple in my own neighborhood. The home now sits vacant, grass is dead, weeds abound and papers piling up in the driveway. Some neighbors go and clean it up some every now and then. But they are obviously eye sores in the community.

I often think, “Where is this family now?” They are paying rent somewhere likely.

Here’s some advice – if you don’t have to move….DON’T !

I would rather see an occupied home in a neighborhood being cared for until the day you HAVE to move out. If you are just going to move to another home in the zip code – why pay rent when you can live for ‘free’ until the process is complete? Take that rent money and put it into the lawn care and keep the utilities going. One day, sure, you will have to vacate as the foreclosure comes to a close. But until then – it actually HELPS the neighborhood instead of having another home in LIMBO.

As mentioned in the article above, “Foreclosure typically isn’t making a profit, it’s minimizing a loss,” says Rick Sharga, senior vice president at Realty Trac. “It’s hard to get the (investors) who own the notes excited about spending more money to execute a foreclosure. Ironically, the longer these things take, the more it costs.”

So if you are a homeowner, take advantage of this window. Save up some money and get ready for the changes about to come. But in the meantime, know that STAYING can actually help the neighborhood appear more stable and help your neighbors maintain some of their own property value.

Good luck!

Hey New Yorkers - is it time to buy in Florida?

I remember when I first moved to Florida full time. It was in 2003, before the BOOM in real estate. I owned a home in upstate New York which was worth about $40,000 at the time but the taxes were outrageous! Couple that with winters where it was common for 6 feet to 10 feet of snow to accumulate – and it was an easy decision to make the move to Florida! Sure, the median priced home was around $200,000 – but taxes were WAY lower (no state income tax, lower sales tax and lower real estate taxes!) and from a cash flow perspective – the numbers worked!

Today, I checked out an article post from CNN on the current Florida housing market. This video in particular, caught my eye:

http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2010/11/24/pf_foreclosure_auctions.cnnmoney/

For my New York friends who are thinking – yeah, but it is SO hot there in the summer – I’ll remind you that our summer in 2010 was similar in temperatures to yours this year! And, minus the snow plowing, sidewalk shoveling, and car window scraping in the winters….it might be time to at LEAST look into a second home?!

In any event – we may not have reached the absolute BOTTOM in the market yet – but we are darn near close I would think – judging that some areas I have appraised are valuing 75% less than when the properties were purchased in 2007! WOW – values at 1/3 of what they used to be 3 years ago! Do you think it will go lower? Will homes eventually just be transferred for FREE?

Current inventory may be keeping the pricing low for a bit, with the ‘shadow inventory’ looming out there, and sidelined buyers not purchasing as many homes right now. But give it time… and like a clogged up drain – you just may see another “boom” of buying. It will just be the prices are at 50-70% of that boom from 2005!!

Make it a great day!

Are prices increasing or recovering?

I downloaded the latest 3rd quarter report for Orlando today, from the National Association of Realtors and saw the very 1st graph which caught my eye:



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I have been seeing of late, some increasing trends for home sales. Yet when you look at the longer view - it is quickly apparent that the markets are really just getting back to ground zero!

The report showed a lot of really good data, which I have been tracking ‘on the ground' in real estate appraisals here in central Florida, including Orlando, Clermont, Winter Garden and Windermere.

What a world of difference from 5 years ago! The question is.....where will we be 5 years from now?