It seems like all you hear about from local TV stations is the crashing housing markets here in Central Florida. If all you hear from are news sources - you would likely think that the whole region is still in the dumps!

However, talk to some of the folks on the ground here, and you may be finding a different story!

While my purpose is not to pitch you on the beauty of the market right now - I do want to let you know of some bright spots out there!

Certainly I have seen markets which continue to decline. However, some markets have certainly reached "The Bottom" and are actually beginning to show signs of improvement!

For anyone looking for a rental, first home, or vacation home....a community known as "Heather Hill" should catch your attention!

Heather Hill is located just north of Sanders Rd in Davenport, FL.

It is a community comprised of single family detached homes which were typically purchased for second home, vacation rentals (short term rentals) and some year round use.

Now in the market, there has been a run of REO sales and short sales, which has brought the pricing of the community back to 2004 levels:

As you can see, there were some major declines during 2006 and 2007. However, 2008 shows quite a rebound in the 3^rd quarter averages. It shows over a yearly perspective that the trend has at least compensated for the 1^st and 2^nd quarter losses.

What is interesting is that when you look at the average price per square foot for a home in this community - it is similar to that of 2004.

I am finding this trend happening all over my market area - particularly in Lake county and northern Polk county. Many of these subdivisions with a lot of activity - have pricing back to 2004 levels, mostly due to a rash of recent REO sales and short sales now having closed.

A better view of the roller coaster of the market here can be seen in this graph:

(The red line is the trend of Avg price per SF and the green line is the trend of Avg Days on Market)

While there are certainly some market areas which have a way to go to reach bottom, the good news is there are some which already appear to have done so.

That is good news for the consumer and hopefully, for the economy again!

If you are looking to take advantage of a really good time to buy - contact a local Realtor - especially one from this Active Rain board!

A professional appraiser can certainly measure the market and provide some guidance as to where the trends are going. Once you know...it is up to you to act!

I recently complete an appraisal for an FHA refinance for a client. While at the home, the customer gave me a copy of his appraisal from when he purchased the home in 2006. The customer was fully prepared that home values in the Orlando market have certainly declined - but I was mostly surprised by what I saw in his appraisal report from the time he purchased the home!

What I found was that the home was originally appraised by a trainee appraiser under supervision of a Certified Residential appraiser. The supervisor indicated that he did not inspect the home and only reviewed the work.

The home was purchased in 2006 for $385,000 and now, had a value of only $310,000. That is no surprise given the current Orlando market.

What did surprise me, was that the appraiser, in 2006, reported the home market to be "increasing, a shortage of supply, and marketing times under 3 months."

It seemed everything was going just fine in 2006, huh? Except when I went back to review the statistics for this neighborhood - I found just the opposite!

It was pretty clear at this time that the market was declining! You can see from the chart that the average price per square foot for home sales, leveled out in the 1^st Quarter of 2006. By the 2^nd Quarter, the market had begun to turn. Sometimes that is hard to gauge...but certainly by the 3^rd Quarter (when the home sold) the market was declining.

With the recent AP Article detailing major problems in the appraisal industry - now more than ever - lenders, brokers, Realtors, and even homeowners should expect more from the appraisers they engage.

So what are you seeing? When you get your appraisal report - check to see what level of reporting is being done. Is the appraiser just checking the boxes and making blanket statements like

" the subject is in a typical residential neighborhood with average appeal to the market."

What the heck does that mean?

Don't accept descriptions like "average to the market" with no other indications of what "the market" is. How do you as the reader of the report know what IS average - unless the market is first detailed? How about conditions? Has the appraiser made a comment like:

There were no functional or external inadequacies noted during the inspection of the subject. A full interior/exterior inspection of the subject was performed by the appraiser. The subject was found in average condition. No deferred maintenance items were noted.

So what does that really mean to you? By reading a statement like that - does that really describe the improvements?

Expect more from your appraiser!

In the case of our unfortunate homeowner above, fortunately he has the financial resources to outlast this downturn in the market. But what if he was better informed at the time of his purchase? What if the appraiser had told him that the market was declining, an over supply was forming, and days on market were creeping up over 3 months? Perhaps he would have renegotiated? Perhaps he would have walked?
Or even - he would have come to the table with more cash should the seller prove to be unwilling to budge. Pay now or pay later - that is the outcome. But wouldn't it have been nice to know up front - rather than 18 months later?

Certainly I have seen many homeowners losing their homes when they now owe more than the home is worth, they cannot refinance, and they cannot sell. Hindsight is always 20/20 - but sometimes it IS the appraiser - not doing a good job of researching and reporting the market as "an unbiased opinion of value".

Changes are coming to the appraisal
industry in the months ahead.

Expect more.

• Insist on a quality, credible, and thorough appraisal when making valuation decisions.

AUTHOR: Richard D Ferris - AmcAppraisalsinc.com Phone 877-789-5249 or email me: richard@amcappraisalsinc.com

Richard D. Ferris AMCAppraisalsinc.com richard@amcappraisalsinc.com (877) 789-5249 One # Does It All - Voice/Fax Residential Appraisals in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties. Also servicing Deltona, Deland, and Orange City in Volusia County. Florida State Certified Residential Appraiser #RD4088 FHA Certified : Associate Member Appraisal Institute

As I continue to research communities throughout the day while performing area appraisals, I am finding some strength returning to certain communities.
The media would have us believe that the Florida housing market is still crashing - and it is in some areas.
However, there are also some communities which are picking up and are actually considered stable again!

I recently was appraising a home in Greater Pines in Clermont, FL. This is a subdivision situated just south of Highway 50 off of Hancock Rd in Clermont.
You can see a view of the community by clicking HERE.

This is the first time in the last 6 months where I have been able to write some positive comments about a neighborhood in Clermont!
Typically, the decline has continued in the region, and then when looking at the specific "micro market" - the sales were continuing down as well!

As you can see, the "boom" for this neighborhood actually began in 2001 and continued through the end of 2006!
But then the "bust" we have all experienced came in 2007. It would seem from this overview as well, that market prices are still declining.
However, when you look at the specific market data for the last quarter, a different view comes into focus:

Judging the data from 2007 to present, the trend shows "flattening" in the last 60 days, indicating that the decline has halted, and sales are now going to the point of being "stable". Not increasing again, but not losing value each month as well! In all of 2007, there were only 20 closed sales posted in the MLS. However, as of June 2008, there have been 7 closed sales and 10 pending. That is some good news on the horizon for activity in the community again!

If you are a homeowner in Greater Pines, then congratulations on sitting through this decline! Sit still long enough, and you may see values come back up again as well!

If you are a Realtor selling homes in Greater Pines, make sure you challenge the appraiser to look closely at the data! In reviewing appraisers I find some who are saying a market is stable when it is still declining, and some who are riding the declining bandwagon even when the data shows stable! As appraisers, we have to report the ACTUAL trends and data - not just what "everyone else" is reporting. Our job as an appraiser is to decipher the data and come to credible, relevant conclusions to assist our clients in making good decisions for lending, selling, or buying.

Take heart.....it's not ALL bad news!

Make it a productive day!

	AUTHOR: Richard D Ferris - AmcAppraisalsinc.com - Servicing all of Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties. Also servicing Deltona, Deland, and Orange City in Volusia County. - Phone 877-789-5249 or email me: richard@amcappraisalsinc.com

As you can tell from my prior blog posts, I am not one to buy into the "sky is falling", "recession abounds" talk from the media. I do, however, watch closely micro market areas in order to best serve my client's interest to know the smaller market areas as compared to larger regional areas.

I came across a small community the other day in Groveland, FL known as Westwood. The reason this caught my attention was that I was asked to appraise a home which I appraised in November 2006.

At that time, they were buying the home from the builder for $264,000. I had multiple comps from the community and surrounding communities and made the report "subject to completion" of the home since it was under construction. It appraised at that time for $265,000 - a very credible value in the market at the time.

Now since then of course the regional and national market "crashed", "popped" etc. And sadly, although it is a GREAT time to buy in this neighborhood - I truly feel for the ones who bought 12-18 months ago!

Since late 2006, there have been very few sales from the builder and therefore, current pricing of new construction is ranging from $209,500 to $227,555 for similar sized homes. So if one bought a home in this community 18 months ago - it has lost close to $50,000 of value! WOW.

This is a wall of dominos now waiting to fall. For homeowners who are not looking to sell and can wait out the market - this community will eventually get finished and could return to 2006 values. At present, however, homeowners who took out adjustable rate mortgages, with 80/20 or other creative finance plans - are either stuck with those payments or will soon be facing short sales or foreclosures. Short sale listings are already being noticed in the community - which is understandable. If one bought an 1800-1900 sf home for $260,000 or so and put 20% down, with a balance of only $208,000 financed there is a good chance to sell and clear the balance...although losing that significant 20% down payment! But if the down payment was only 10% or worse - 5% - then with balances of $234,000 to $247,000 - the balances alone are higher than any other current sales in the community.

So if you are in the market to buy a home, Westwood is a beautiful community with good potential for the future! If you are a current homeowner in the community - hang in there! And if you are facing financial hardships as a result of market forces - I extend my condolences. It is just money after all. An 18-20% loss is never a good thing!

And if you need a reliable appraisal to better understand where your home in the community may compare - don't hesitate to contact me!

Richard D Ferris
AmcAppraisalsinc.com
877-789-5249 Voice/Fax