While the credit has current increased sales, there are questions about whether the credit has stimulated new sales or just encouraged already decided buyers to purchase sooner rather than later. In other words, no real boost to the overall housing sales that would have occurred anyway over the next several months.
If this is the case, then the sales in the coming months may be adversely impacted by the present tax credit incentive.
Other objections are the cost to the treasury, and the apparent fact that the buyers and the areas benefiting from the tax incentive may not be those most needing the help.
The good news for the economy is that in a few months there will be billions of dollars in tax credits being spent by the lucky recipients. Of course it is billions of dollars that will be provided by us good old tax payers.
In a recent post, I tried to review the considerations for extending the credit - its effectiveness, its cost, its target. One comment suggested that I had mentioned the problems, but had not offered an alternative solution. I felt that was a fair criticism of the post.
How else might the government stabilize the housing market, if the tax credit idea is not effective and is too costly?
Here is my alternative solution, using the same $11 billion that is the reported cost of the credit to date. (Of course, with still another several weeks before the deadline, I suspect the final cost will be close to double.)
Use the $11 billion, in increments of up to $8,000, to encourage new home buyers - those who want to purchase but have found that in the new lending realities, they are no longer qualified to purchase.
A year they could have purchased with lower scores or with a lower down payment. Today they are locked out.
One of the problems with the housing market is that prices have dropped because of surplus homes and the impact of foreclosure sales.
Another reason for depressed prices is that the pool of qualified buyers has dropped significantly. Credit score requirements have increased. Unemployment has increased. Down payment requirements have increased.
Fewer buyers. More inventory. Lower prices.Less sales.
If we use the tax credit money to offer a guarantee, matching dollar for dollar, to private and government mortgage insurance then it might enable the qualifying requirements to be lowered. Providing more qualified buyers.
More buyers. Less inventory. Higher prices. More sales.
For those who would participate in the subsidized MI program, they could receive a higher rate that could offset some of the cost and risk. But these new borrowers would be able to qualify with less down or with lower credit scores.
These borrowers would still meet underwriting guidelines, just relaxed guidelines.
If we used the $11 billion so far spent in the credit, largely by people who would have bought anyway (no net increase in home sales over time), then there might have been over 1,300,000 home sales that were actually new buyers.
(A real net increase in home sales over time.)
Most home buyers who would qualify unter tighter guidelines would not take the higher rate or higher MI required for the subsidized MI program. Those buyers would still purchase, without the incentive.
We would have the funding for over 1,000,000 new purchasers who would not have qualified without the subsidized MI.
The MI companies could charge the full premium and cover only half the risk. This would help restore the MI industry. (Damage to the MI industry has not received much discussion, but it is a critical issue.)
It might be possible to subsidize MI even for qualified buyers who purchase in targeted, depressed areas. This would give a reduced MI premium, and be market driven solution.
If we consider that the MI subsidy would not really be all be spent, but only for those homes lost to foreclosure, most of the buyers receiving subsidized MI would keep their homes, then the $11 billion could be used to subsidize even more purchases.
Using a 30% default rate, the $11 billion might be stretched to cover 4.5 million new home sales.
Now that would stabilize the housing market.
The film, Main Street: More than a Home, documents the story about the first LEED certified Habitat home in Tennessee.

Several months ago Habitat for Humanity in Chattanooga announced the first LEED certified home in Tennessee. The home was completed in April.
Today Habitat announced the film documenting the effort and the client's story - a remarkable story - will be featured at the Brownfields Film Festival on Tuesday, November 17th.
The LEED certified project was a joint effort with local entrepreneur - architect, Thomas Palmer; green builder Ethan Collier; and local nonprofit, green|spaces - and Habitat. The client is Baja Dalla, a Sudanese refugee, who Sudan's civil war in which his parents and siblings were killed to come to Chattanooga.
The Chattanoogan has a story about Baja and his family. This is the 4th refugee family helped by Chattanooga Habitat.
The story was so inspiring that David Porfiri and Linda Duvoison, with Mindflow Media, decided to produce a documentary film: Main Street: More than a Home.
Collier Construction has provided a resource sheet to describe some of the design features that makes the new home a green home. It includes planned features such as advanced framing, insulated crawl space and attic
You can donate to the green Habitat construction projects here.
Last month another successful Race for the Cure was held in Chattanooga.
This year a record crowd came
out for the annual 1k Fun Run and the 5K Competitive Race.
As a follow up to the Susan G Komen Race for the Cure two more events are scheduled in October.
Tomorrow at 4pm, organizers with the Chattanooga Affiliate of Susam G Komen for the Cure® are going for the Guinness Book of Records for the largest human awareness ribbon.
Anyone over the age of 15 can participate. Participants will meet at Chamberlain Field, UTC.
The next event is October 29 at the Chattanooga Spa, from 6 to 9pm. $15 admission for hors d'oevres and mini spa treatments, with proceeds going to the Chattanooga Affiliate of Susam G Komen for the Cure®.
encouraging
Reviewing the recent story lines in the Times Free Press reveals postive stories that bear out a trend of economic recovery in the Chattanooga area.
Chattam, a local consumer products manufacturer, has seen its stock price jump as investors take note of its rising sales and profits. The article reports that the company's top 4 brands, Gold Bond, ACT, Icy Hot, and Cortizone-10, are having strong sales. The article reports that the company is planning an $18 million expansion that will employ over 60 additional people.
The Volkswagen plant of course is big news in Chattanooga.Plant construction is moving along well. This week VW representatives held a gathering for potential suppliers. Plans now are to have a high percentage of supplier plants on site and locally in Chattanooga. About 100 VW suppliers gathered to hear VW expectations for its new plant in Chattanooga.
Southern Fabrication Contractors, another local company, announced it received the contract for installing equipment support steel for the VW plant. Contract terms were not announced but it is very good for the Chattanooga employer and community.
Another local company, CBL, a locally based commercial property developer and management company, announced the grand opening of The Promenade, a 700,000 square foot shopping center in D'Iberville, Mississippi. The first phase is opening with 96% of the commercial space leased or committed. The shopping center is the largest project in the Mississippi Gulf Coast since Hurricane Katrina.
Another local company, eSpin, a leader in nanofiber technology, announced it has received the license to provide dry wipes for use at Department of Energy nuclear energy facilities. These wipes replace wet wipes and are more effective and require no other chemicals to clean. The company hopes to offer similar products for general consumer use.
It has been my pleasure to post frequently the high ratings Chattanooga receives as a top city on the international scene.
This morning I must now post our high ranking as the least physically fit city in the US, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Come one folks - we are better than this.
We have the Riverwalk, bike trails, numerous gym facilities, even some public facilities. 7 area YMCA's. Each community has a walking track with its youth athletic association.
We are better than this.
Let's go for a walk! Today!
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