WASHINGTON, September 24, 2008
Existing-home sales were down in August following a healthy gain in July as tight mortgage credit curtailed activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales rose in the Midwest and South but fell in the Northeast and West.
Nationally, existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops –declined 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.91 million units in August from an upwardly revised pace of 5.02 million in July, but are 10.7 percent below the 5.50 million-unit pace in August 2007.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the pendulum in the mortgage market has swung too far. “The difficulty in obtaining a mortgage increased over past couple months, making it more challenging for creditworthy borrowers to find financing,” he said. “Our hope is that overly tight lending criteria can be loosened with reasonable standards and credit so that sales activity can catch up with demand. Interest rates have already declined, but there is a serious question as to whether a cash infusion by the U.S. Treasury into Wall Street would help consumers by improving mortgage funding.
“We urge Congress to restore access to sound mortgage credit so people have the ability to make and keep a long-term investment in the American dream of homeownership. Congress needs to take care of Main Street and not just bail out Wall Street.”
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.48 percent in August from 6.43 percent in July; the rate was 6.57 percent in August 2007. However, last week the 30-year fixed had dropped to 5.78 percent.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the recent drop in interest rates is an immediate impact of recent government action. “August sales reflect higher interest rates before the government takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and the sudden drop in mortgage interest rates over the past couple weeks is improving housing affordability,” he said. “With higher loan limits and a beefing up of the FHA program, all the mechanisms have been falling into place to increase mortgage availability.
“However, home sales will be constrained without a freer flow of credit into the mortgage market. The faster that happens, the sooner we’ll see a broad stabilization in home prices that in turn will help the economy recover,” Yun said. “Historically, housing has led the nation out of economic doldrums – there will not be an economic recovery without a housing recovery.”
The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $203,100 in August, down 9.5 percent from a year ago when the median was $224,400.
“The median home price reflects more transactions related to subprime loans,” Yun said. “Fewer than 10 percent of homeowners have subprime loans, but these mortgages are accounting for a disproportionately high share of sales in the current market. On the other hand, areas that have had sharp price cuts are seeing a turnaround in sales, which are rising very fast now in parts of California, Florida and Nevada.”
Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 7.0 percent to 4.26 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.4-month supply3 at the current sales pace, down from a revised 10.9-month supply in July.
Single-family home sales slipped 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million in August from an upwardly revised pace of 4.41 million in July, but are 9.6 percent below the 4.81 million-unit level a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $201,900 in August, down 9.7 percent from August 2007.
Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units in August from an upwardly revised level of 610,000 in July, and are 19.0 percent below the 691,000-unit pace in August 2007. The median existing condo price4 was $212,600 in August, which is 7.2 percent below a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 0.9 percent in August to a pace of 1.14 million but are 12.3 percent below August 2007. The median price in the Midwest was $168,000, down 5.6 percent from a year ago.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 0.5 percent to an annual pace of 1.86 million in August, but are 15.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $176,500, which is 3.4 percent lower than August 2007.
Existing-home sales in the West fell 5.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.07 million in August, but are 4.9 percent higher than August 2007. The median price in the West was $251,600, down 23.9 percent from a year ago. “The highest concentration of foreclosures is in the West, which is weighing down the median price because many buyers are taking advantage of deeply discounted prices,” Yun said.
In the Northeast, existing-home sales dropped 6.6 percent to an annual pace of 850,000 in August, and are 15.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $271,000, down 3.8 percent from August 2007.
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¹The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – nearly 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
²The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the geographic composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.
³Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982. Condos were tracked quarterly prior to 1999 when single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases (e.g., condos were 9.5 percent of transactions in 1998, 8.5 percent in 1990 and only 6.1 percent in 1982).
4Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price can be higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.
Existing-home sales for September will be released October 24, and the next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled for October 8. For more information: http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata
