Who has the money to buy a 4 acre apartment complex, tear it down, & then sit on it for 4 years? Answer: Post Properties, Inc. from Dallas (eww, Dallas). I've driven by the old Southridge apartment tract for years now wondering what the hell they were going to do with it, & when the hell they were going to do it. Well, it seems the stars have aligned & ground breaking is going to be taking place next month on the 300 apartment unit/8500 sf retail complex called Post South Lamar (I confess, when I first heard the name I wondered "does 'Post South Lamar' truly signify the end of South Lamar as I know it?" But I digress...) I kinda hope they have better luck attracting retail tenants than The Cole (worst website music ever, by the way)...sure seems like the Spicy Pickle is lonely over there, doesn't it? And with the news of 300 more apartment units coming on line starting in 2012, I fear for even more traffic on our beloved bumper-to-bumper S Lamar...oh, well, at least we still have S 1st. Rob Albertson is a Realtor and proud South Austinite for over 10 years. He specializes in South Austin Homes for Austin Fine Properties, a Private Label Realty Company, and can be reached at 512.653.8939 or rob@austinfineproperties.com.
Current Market Stats for 78722
I tend to work in a smaller area of Austin than many of my colleagues. I believe in specialization (and trying to avoid traffic at all costs.) So I end up spending my days in South Austin (specifically 78704, 78745, & 78749), while also venturing into the eastside zips of 78722 & 78723.
I’m also a finance guy (okay I was an English major too, go figure) so I love diving into market stats to try to figure out what’s going on out there in the market. Over the past couple weeks, I looked at what was going on in my beloved South Austin, and thought I’d see if similar trends were occurring in my eastside pockets of 78722 & 78723.
So just after the expiration of April’s first time home buyer tax credit, Austin was facing the highest levels of inventory in its history and buyers were seemingly no where to be found. It was a difficult summer, especially since everyone expected the party to continue from the spring on through the summer. It look a number of months before inventory levels adjusted to more manageable levels, as evidenced by the graph below:
So what happened? What was the reason for the drop in inventory in 78722: was it homes being sold, listings expiring, or just a stop of all new homes onto the market? The next graph helps to spell it out:
Unlike some other areas in the city, it took a little while for new listings in 78722 to slow down since the summertime peak. In fact, we saw 14 new listings come on in September alone before a rapid slowdown to 3 in both November & December. The number of expired listings peaked in October at 9 before falling off again in November & December. As for the number of homes sold, it has remained pretty constant, moving between 4 & 6 homes per month. The only category not shown is home withdrawn from the market (to mostly likely return again soon), as this can be a tricky one to track accurately…but they are certainly out there.
So what does this all mean? Perhaps the most helpful graph is one showing the average months of inventory. It’s figured by dividing the number of homes on the market by the number under contract. A neutral market (neither a seller's or buyer's market) is generally assumed to be at 6 months (less than 6 months, a seller's market - more than 6 months, a buyer's market):
What this shows is how quickly we can move from a buyer’s market into a seller’s market with a rapid adjustment in the level of homes for sale. Now, it also means that a rapid rise in the number of homes on the market in 78722 can quickly turn this around without an adequate number of buyers to meet supply.
The good news is we’re starting off 2011 in a great place…but if the expired and withdrawn listings make a rapid comeback, we could see a return to excessive inventory levels. Whether the rising interest rates or the more promising economic news will be enough to push buyers back into the market is still anyone’s guess. But it’ll certainly be interesting to watch & track how the market progress this year.
As a home seller in 78722, the start of 2011 seems promising for well-conditioned & well-priced homes. But it will be wise to watch changes in the market closely, as inventory could begin to build up rapidly.
As a home buyer in 78722, good homes at reasonable prices should begin to come on the market…but competition for the best homes could be substantial, at least in the short term. And with rising rental rates, owning a home could prove to be more economical than leasing.
Here’s to an interesting 2011…
Rob Albertson specializes in East Austin Homes & South Austin Homes for Austin Fine Properties, a Private Label Realty Company, and can be reached at 512.653.8939 or rob@austinfineproperties.com.
78745 Market Stats for the Start of 2011
So we've already looked at what 78704 & 78749 has been doing since summer 2010 & where they're starting 2011, so it's only fair to see how the neighbor in the middle, 78745, is doing.
In the middle of the summer of 2010, inventory in Austin was at historically high levels. Homes in 78745 were no different, and just like in 78704 & 78749, the back half of 2010 has seen a drop in the number of houses for sale.
But unlike in 78704 & especially 78749, the fall was not a dramatic & it took a few months to really start adjusting downward. A deeper look into the 78745 market is needed to show what's going on:
Looking at the graph above, the only area showing much movement is the # of new homes listed for sale. Many of these will be listings that have expired & then re-listed while others are brand new additions to the market. We see that the news of a slow summer didn't prevent sellers from putting their houses on the market, and it was only until the historically slow months of November & December did these new listings slow dramatically. As for expired listings, there is a positive trend downward, finishing December at just 24. Withdrawn listings, however is not shown (because it's very hard to track), so there could be a significant number of home seller who got the memo & decided to end their listings early. Remaining mostly flat is the # of homes sold.
A final graph shows the average months of inventory which is taken by dividing the number of homes on the market by the number under contract. A neutral market (neither a seller's or buyer's market) is generally assumed to be at 6 months (less than 6 months, a seller's market - more than 6 months, a buyer's market):
This graph can help explain why we saw more new listings in 78745 come on the market in September & October which was much later than 78704 & 78749. July & August were seen as slight seller's markets until the reality really hit in September that we're having a tough summer. November saw another spike into a strong buyer's market as the number of under contract properties dropped significantly with the return to a neutral market back in December.
Obviously, the needle seems to be swinging wildly in terms of months of inventory, so it's really anyone's guess how early 2011 will look. The good news is that the number of homes for sale in 78745 has come down significantly since the summer thus giving us a good place to start in 2011. While I suspect we'll start to see a mixture of new & rehashed inventory sneak back into 78745, there will hopefully be enough buyers finally ready to take advantage of still-historically low interest rates & an improving economic picture to work through the existing & new housing stock.
So whether you are a home seller or a home buyer in 2011, I think you'll do fine. If you home has not been listed in the past year or so, you may be competing largely with homes that have tried themselves on the market recently & failed. By getting your home ready for sale & pricing it correctly, you may be pleasantly surprised with the results. As a home buyer, rates should still be held in check & neighborhoods will be at the most affordable in years. If you're looking for a long-term investment, it'll be a great year to buy. Either way, it should be an interesting year.
Rob Albertson is a Realtor and proud South Austinite for over 10 years. He specializes in South Austin Homes for Austin Fine Properties, a Private Label Realty Company, and can be reached at 512.653.8939 or rob@austinfineproperties.com.
My start in real estate came as a builder and remodeler. 3 years later, I had my real estate license because I couldn't find an agent who matched my level of enthusiasm for finding great values on the market first (I suppose I was a needy client.) Little by little, I started helping friends in real estate - then friends of friends - and then that expanded to be my full time career. I still loved building, but the market was just unpredictable enough that it was a safer bet to lay the tools down awhile.
But I've felt a shift in the market (or at least in my little pocket of South Austin), and I felt the time was right to get back to my roots and get my hands a little dirtier. The result (hopefully) will be a 5-star rated green home of 2300+ sf at 906 W Johanna in 78704.
It's been over 2 years since I've attempted a build of this magnitude and the first time I've gone for a 5-star green rating, having built a couple 4-star homes before. The ratings have gotten stricter every year so this is a real trial by fire - but it's a great exercise in really learning about the latest techniques & technologies of green building.
A lot of friends & fellow agents have asked me what it's like to build a green home from concept to completion, so I thought I'd start a blog on 906 W Johanna for anyone wanting to check in. It's www.906wjohanna.com and we've already broken ground...so follow along, comment if you wish, and see what it takes to build green. To my current & future clients: don't worry, I'm still a full time Realtor...I just happen to have an expensive hobby.
Rob Albertson is a Realtor and proud South Austinite for over 10 years. He specializes in South Austin Homes for Austin Fine Properties, a Private Label Realty Company, and can be reached at 512.653.8939 or rob@austinfineproperties.com.
Last week, I looked at what the second half of 2010 looked like for 78704 & gave my best guess for the start of 2011. I was curious to see if similar trends exist in Southwest Austin's 78749 zip code.
In the middle of the summer of 2010, Austin was facing the highest levels of inventory in its history & buyers, well, were not there to meet the increase in supply...it was an especially long summer for home sellers.
Just as in 78704, there has been a steady decrease in the number of houses for sale in 78749 since the peak of summer (and the peak of inventory levels):
A decrease in the number of homes for sale in 78749 means nothing unless we look at what's really behind the drop:
We see a quick drop in the number of new listings in 78749 from it's peak of 66 in July down to 35 in September where it holds pretty steady for the rest of the year. The number of expired listings has fluctuated between 21 & 32 and ended the year at 24 in December. And finally the number of sold homes has come down from its peak of 55 in July (which can largely be attributed to closings from the home buyer tax credit) to bounce between 22 & 36. The other category not shown is the number of homes that have been withdrawn from the market, prior to the listing expiration date. This is more difficult number to track but seems to be on pace with the number of expired listings.
So what does this all mean? Well, it seems the home sellers in 78749 quickly realized that the market was vastly different for the back half of 2010 than it was for the first half. We see a rapid adjustment of inventory leaving the market, starting off mostly through expired & withdrawn listings instead of sold inventory. But as 2010 goes, sales remain strong with decreased levels of inventory entering the market, thus self-correctly to a pretty strong housing market. Now, not all the news is good - much of the expired & withdrawn inventory was not relisted, rather held (presumably) for better market signs in the future.
A final graph shows the average months of inventory which is taken by dividing the number of homes on the market by the number under contract. A neutral market (neither a seller's or buyer's market) is generally assumed to be at 6 months (less than 6 months, a seller's market - more than 6 months, a buyer's market):
What this shows is how quickly 78749 was able to move from a neutral market (which felt much more like a buyer's market) in July to a fairly competitive market at the end of 2010.
Just as in 78704, what 2011 brings to 78749 is anyone's guess. I suspect we'll see more homes on the market as seller's hope that spring 2011 is, indeed, the return of housing prosperity. Buyer activity should increase as well due to still historically low interest rates (that have been showing signs of heading northward) and a belief amongst many that the worst is at (or very near) the end. But it remains to be seen whether it's supply or demand that outpaces the other. If the current trend continues, we may likely see it remain neutral for some time to come.
So whether you are a home seller or a home buyer in 2011, I think you'll do fine. If you home has not been listed in the past year or so, you may be competing largely with homes that have tried themselves on the market recently & failed. By getting your home ready for sale & pricing it correctly, you may be pleasantly surprised with the results. As a home buyer, rates should still be held in check & neighborhoods will be at the most affordable in years. If you're looking for a long-term investment, it'll be a great year to buy. Either way, it should be an interesting year.
Rob Albertson is a Realtor and proud South Austinite for over 10 years. He specializes in South Austin Homes for Austin Fine Properties, a Private Label Realty Company, and can be reached at 512.653.8939 or rob@austinfineproperties.com.
Rob Albertson is full time Realtor, a part time musician, and an expert in all things Austin. He has been helping clients buy, build, and invest in Austin for over 10 years.
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