Ed Tse

The Root, The Mother Branch? (Draft) (edit/delete)

Dr. Housing Bubble

The Four Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse: Lessons from the Great Depression: Part XX. Housing Distress, Stock Market Tanking, Commodities Collapsing, and Unemployment Surging.

The Southern California housing market still shows significant signs of distress. It is rather obvious that the Federal Reserve is going to do everything it can to weaken the dollar and try to strong-arm interest rates until they scream uncle. During this same historic week that we are now in zero interest rate policy Ben Bernanke helicopter (ZIRP) world, another milestone occurred in Southern California. The median price for an area with more than 20 million people has now breached the $300,000 mark. This is significant because the peak of $505,000 was reached only last summer.

(You may click the above chart to enlarge it.)

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DHB wrote the best article I have ever read recently in 6 months.

I post the link to the article in other topics many times.

Even I am not satisfied with DHB's right diagnosis without a feasible solution, I spend so much time to write a comment on it in the above title. But unfortunately I lost my content when I tried to upload it and AR computer ate it so that I lost my patience to do it again and placed it in my "Draft".

If you would like to understand the current economic development much better than Ben Bernanke or Hank Paulson, I would like to recommend the article to you.

If you understand what DHB said, and read what Jude Wanniski reckoned those wrongful events in the history in his book "The way the world works," I believe you would see what the GWB's boys did and went wrong, to discern the future trend and benefit yourself from this man-made "recession" as those errors Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt made in creating the historical "great depression" in 1930'.

Mind you "Be patient it is a long article." If you are unable to have a peace of mind, don't click the web-link.

Even this single residential family house was sold for $173K in 2004 and took back by a banker 4 months ago for $109K, the listing agent would appreciate you to make an offer of $28,000. Mind you it is not considered as a low ball offer that you feel bashful.

Just join the "bank robber club" where bankers greet you with hugs and kisses. Jump on the wagon before it is too late.

Zestimate says it has a market value of $162,500 as of today. Almost 83% off the Zestimate value; and 84% off the eppraisal value, that's a steal, right?

2**** W ***** Dr., *******, CA 92***

Bank owned Home 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathroom, Den That Can Be Used As Another Bedroom, Chiminey In The Living Room, One Car Garage, Tall Trees Sorounding The House, Close To Stores And Schools Located In Low Tax Area.

Date Event Price Appreciation Source

Nov , 2008	Price Changed	$49,900	--	MRMLS #
Oct , 2008	Price Changed	$59,000	--	MRMLS #
Sep , 2008	Price Changed	$69,900	--	MRMLS #
Aug , 2008	Listed	$75,900	--	MRMLS #

Property Features
Single Family Property Status: Active Area: County: Riverside Year Built: 1941	3 total bedroom(s) 1 total bath(s) 1 total full bath(s) Approximately 816 sq. ft. Single story	Type: Attached Fireplace(s) Fireplace features: Fireplace in the Living Room Parking features: 1 Parking Space(s), Detached Garage Lot is 4791 sq. ft.

Zestimate: $162,500

Value Range: $121,875 - $243,750

Last updated: 12/15/2008

	Low	Estimate
Zillow	$121,875	$162,500	$243,750
Eppraisal	$148,394	$174,581	$200,768

Sales History

Sale History & Tax Info

Sale History

07/23/2008: $109,020 *

04/30/2004: $173,000

11/27/1996: $39,500

Total property tax paid:

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

$581	$2,124	$1,984	$2,000	$2,000

Median House Values

Select a neighborhood, zip code, or city for more stats.

List $$/Sq. Ft.

Zip Code	$250,000	$119
neighborhood	$109,900	$90

Even this single residential family house was foreclosed and took back by a banker 8 months ago for $145K, the listing agent would appreciate you to make an offer of $8,500. Did I miss a "0" at the ending? Quadruply checked. The answer is "NOPE." Mind you it is not considered as a low ball offer so that you don't have to feel bashful.

Just join the "bank robber club" where bankers greet you with hug and kisses. Jump on the wagon before it is too late.

Zestimate says it has a market value of $131,000 as of today. Almost 95% off, that's a steal, right? Compared to its foreclosed price 14 years ago, it is still 70% off; and 85% off its normal sale price 13 years ago. What do you think this price for a house in a California big city?

My comment: due to its location in the city of 200K, it is NOT a good buy.

5** ****** Ave, M*****, CA 95***

Residence: Single family	--
Bedrooms:2	--
Bathrooms: 1.0	--
Sq ft: 864	--
Lot size: 7,840 sq ft / 0.18 acres	-- sq ft / -- acres
Year built: 1940

ZESTIMATE^®: $131,000

Value Range: $94,320 - $180,780

• 30-day change: -$8,000
• Zestimate updated: 12/15/2008

Last sale and tax info

Sold 04/09/2008:

$145,424 *

2008 Property Tax:

$871

Sale History

04/09/2008: $145,424 *

09/28/1995: $53,000

09/07/1994: $27,000 *

No other sale data is available

The listing agent welcome you to make an offer of $41,000 for the following property. Sorry, it is not considered as a low ball offer so that you don't have to feel bashful.

Just join the "bank robber club" where bankers greet you with hug and kisses. Jump on the wagon before it is too late.

The condo unit was sold for $215K; and Similar units were sold for $210-220K last year. Zestimate says it has a market value of $182,000 as of today. Almost 80% off, that's a steal, right? Wait a minute! Don't be so hurry. Look at the other unit #115 of the same complex, how much it was sold two months ago?

My conclusion is "NOT A GOOD DEAL" unless you just need a place to live in NOW. Be patient for the price dropping in this area.

**** ****** AVE #125
LOS ANGELES CA 9****

Zestimate: $182,000

30-day change: -$16,000

Value Range: $131,040 - $198,380

Last updated: 12/12/2008

Sale History

07/24/2007:$167,709 *

10/14/2005: $195,000 *

09/07/2001: $53,000

Site Address	**** ****** AVE #125 LOS ANGELES CA 9****
Property Type	Condominium

Recording Date	07/24/2007
Land	$54,000
Improvements	$161,000

Single Family Residence	**** ****** AVE, #115 LOS ANGELES CA 9****	10/15/2008 $59,000	674 1 / 1 1977/1977
Single Family Residence	**** ****** AVE, #206 LOS ANGELES CA 9****	05/08/2007 $220,002	752 1 / 1 1977/1977
Single Family Residence	**** ****** AVE, #221 LOS ANGELES CA 9****	06/14/2007 $215,002	700 1 / 1 1977/1977

The First Good Deal In Los Angeles For Poor Folks (1)

With current real estate downturn, a lot of things seem so funny to me. Some are related to so-called "bank financing." It really upsets me that a lot of people are looking up to a banker's mercy to make a deal. Why we have our pleasure at our own hands? Limit our ability and lack of creativity.

This early morning, I realized that we don't use our brains effectively when one of my buyers responded: "why you don't tell me this capital idea before? Following your idea, we can do it in our own way and dump a banker. Why we keep ourselves talking buying your house and selling mine for 2 weeks? My buyer Joe went to Wells Fargo a weeks ago and has to wait for answer from his banker"? Gee! a good question for me. My response to her: how do I know your situation if you don't tell me even if you are so anxious to get my house, am I right, Lydia? Later, Lydia set up an appointment for her buyer, her (my buyer) and me to discuss my plan this coming Monday. (NOTE: I may talk about these seller financing deals later if we go through.)

Also, so many funny things have happened. Our FED and NAR are trying all the proposals to stop housing price falling down and keeping it "inflated." I wish they can make it and break the record since there is no precedent to keep a crazy price of a commodity at sky high in the history of "turnip mania." (NOTE: 300 years ago a tulip valued at $700, how much it is now? I personally experienced a pair of birds "canary" sold for 2-3 month salary of average Mr. Joe in an economy. How much people would pay for a pair of that bird barbecued after the market crash?)

Furthermore, so long as we can collect most of information online as I did it in the above article, this makes me wondering "do we really need an agent to buy a house"?

There are so many properties for sale now and interesting enough to leave me a good thread of thought to write a series of topic "Everything 75-95% off Zillow.com." Zillow.com is a wonderful free website to provide more accurate and current housing value than other two others. However, it is not rare to see Zestimate way off the line, i.e., giving too high value to some properties. I can easily see a lot of properties listed with an asking price way bellow its Zestimate in many areas. They are a good deal, if not a steal.

I will first put California, Arizona or Texas sections out, to introduce those good deals to anyone interested in these states. My time and energy are limited that I'd like to concentrate on the above area. I may consider to expand my sections out if someone has a special interest in other area and in deed need help.

They are good deals, you may save a lot of money by getting it at a price a lot lower than the current Zestimate. Certainly, It is free; so that we don't create a client/ consultant relationship. I don't get nothing out of it and no responsibility whatever accordingly. it is for your reference only. Anyone reading it has to fully do his due diligence

But, in order to protect me from ethnic and any legal liability since I am not the listing agent, I will omit all the address concerned and consider just post those deals with brief outline at my group "American Poor Folk's E-gold" in AR.

What do you think? Do you like my idea? my folk agents! After your inputs, I may give it a second thought.