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Rod Herman

January's Benicia Home Sales Report

02-06-09
Rod Herman

I Just finished a report that shows every Benicia home that closed escrow in January. Click on the graphic to download the report, which includes address, bedrooms, baths, square footage, sales price, and even the net change from the original list price to the eventual selling price.

There were 13 home sales in Benicia last month — the lowest $114,900 and the highest $675,000.

Next month’s report will be posted in early March. To see Vallejo’s January home sales report, click here.

Remember, too, that I’m always happy to provide more custom and/or more detailed analyses of our market for clients and prospective clients. Just send me an email or give me a call and I’ll get to work!

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This post originally appeared here:

January ‘09 Benicia Home Sales Report ‘Hot Off The Presses’

Trend or No Trend? Solano Home Inventory Drops Again — That’s Three Weeks In A Row

02-04-09
Rod Herman

Solano Housing Market Weekly Update

For the third week in row, the number of active listings fell throughout Solano, with all cities except Benicia again seeing a marked decrease from the previous week.solano-weekly-housing-inventory-report-click-here

Suisun City led the way with a 9.5% drop, followed by Vacaville (-6.3%), Fairfield-Green Valley (-6.3%), Vacaville (-6%), Vallejo (-4.6%) and Benicia (-1%).

The raw numbers for this past week:

  • Benicia -1
  • Vallejo -40
  • Fairfield-Green Valley -41
  • Suisun City -19
  • Vacaville -25

Since the beginning of the year, every city except Benicia has seen its housing inventory drop sharply. Suisun City leads the way, with almost a third (28.9%) fewer homes today than four weeks ago.

Since Jan. 5, Vacaville’s inventory has dropped 12.7%, Fairfield-Green Valley’s 9.7% and Vallejo’s 5.7%. Benicia’s inventory has held fairly steady; there were 106 homes on the market four weeks ago and there are 104 active listings today — a drop of only 1.9%.

As I pointed out last week, it’s too early to call this a trend, since some of the drop in inventory could be attributed to the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac moratorium on foreclosures. That foreclosure ban ended yesterday (Feb. 1), so we could again start to see the inventory climb.

However, if the supply of active listings instead continues to drop in the coming weeks, then it could be a signal that the bottom of the market is near. We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things, particularly with the traditionally busier spring buying season drawing near.

To see the complete report, with week-by-week totals, Click Here. And follow the market with us by checking back each week.

If you find this information valuable and are planning to buy or sell in Solano or Central/East Contra Costa County, please contact us and we’ll be happy to put our 23 combined years of real estate expertise to work for you.

Want to Search Our Local MLS Systems For Homes? Click Here

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This post originally appeared here:

Trend or No Trend? Solano Home Inventory Drops Again — That’s Three Weeks In A Row

Foreclosures Up…But Pre-Foreclosures Down In 4th Quarter: Could The End Be In Sight?

01-29-09
Rod Herman

Even though foreclosures in the fourth quarter were up substantially over the same period a year earlier, the number of pre-foreclosures actually dropped throughout the state in the last quarter of 2008, compared to the last quarter of 2007, according to a just-released report from real estate data guru Dataquick.

Statewide, notice of default recordings were down 7.7% during that period, but here in the Bay Area they were down 12.2%, led by Solano County, which had 20.9% fewer NOD’s recorded in the last quarter of ‘08 than during the same quarter of ‘07. Contra Costa was down 17.6%.

When a Notice of Default is recorded, that signals the “official” start of the foreclosure process. From that date, the borrower has three months to bring the loan current. If that doesn’t happen, then the lender can foreclose three weeks later.

So NOD recordings are a very reliable gauge of how many foreclosures are coming down the pike four or five months later.

On the surface that would seem to indicate that perhaps the worst is now behind us. But before you jump to such conclusions, consider a few things that could point to the contrary:

  • The state passed a law prior to the fourth quarter (SB 1137) requiring lenders to contact borrowers to discuss alternatives to foreclosure at least 30 days prior to recording a NOD. So some NODs that might have normally been recorded during the fourth quarter may have simply been delayed several months by lenders complying with the new law.
  • Once the moratorium on foreclosures by Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac from late November to the end of January comes to a close, the rumor on the street is that there will be a flood of new foreclosures. If that causes property values to drop further, it could force yet more people to throw in the towel, which would signal an increase in NOD recordings. And that would mean more future foreclosures.

While NOD recordings were down, Dataquick’s fourth quarter figures showed actual foreclosures up substantially during that same period of time. Statewide, there were 45.8% more foreclosures in Q4 of 2008 than 2007. Solano County, at 51.7 was a bit lower than the Bay Area average of 67.9%. Contra Costa had 48.3% more foreclosures in ‘08, almost identical to the statewide average.

For a complete county-by-county list, CLICK HERE.

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This post originally appeared here:

Foreclosures Up…But Pre-Foreclosures Down In 4th Quarter: Could The End Be In Sight?

Weekly Solano Housing Inventory Report For Jan 26 -- Inventory Down Everywhere Except Benicia

01-27-09
Rod Herman

Benicia was the only city in our Solano County market area which saw an increase in housing inventory this past week, putting it almost right back where it was when the year began.

With a net gain of six homes, Benicia’s inventory stands at 105 (70 single family homes and 35 condominiums/townhomes) — a 6.1% increase over last week.

Vacaville saw the biggest decrease with a 5.7% drop (24 homes) from a week ago, followed by Suisun City (-5.2%), Fairfield-Green Valley (-3.0%) and Vallejo (-2.5%).

That’s the second week in a row that all four communities saw a reduction in their housing supply. On the surface, that might seem to be an indication that perhaps the market is reaching its bottom.

However, before you get too excited with the drop in inventory in those cities, keep in mind that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac have temporarily suspended all foreclosures (see this story) and all four cities have been a hotbed for foreclosure activity.

The foreclosure ban ends Jan. 31, which means that all those homes which normally would have been repossessed between late November and now will likely hit the market in February and March. If that’s true, the decline in the housing supply in Fairfield, Suisun, Vacaville and Vallejo could be short-lived.

To see the full detailed report, click on the graphic or HERE. And be sure to visit HomeSection.com weekly; I normally update this custom report every Monday or Tuesday.

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This post originally appeared here:

Inventory Down Everywhere In Solano Except Benicia

Did Benicia Act Too Soon When It Closed Mills Elementary?

01-26-09
Rod Herman

It’s been several years since Benicia Unified School District closed Mills Elementary, the oldest of its five elementary schools and the only one located downtown.

Back then, it seemed like the sensible thing to do. The population base was maturing and as a by-product of that, school enrollment, particularly at the elementary school level was declining. The district couldn’t justify keeping five schools open when four offered plenty of capacity for Benicia’s youth population.

But now that property values have declined — back to about 2002 or 2003’s levels here in Benicia, we’re again seeing more and more first-time and young-family home buyers.

That’s a stark contrast to what occurred during the earlier part of this decade, when rapidly rising home prices essentially slammed the door shut on most first-time buyers. With even a modest single family home priced well into the $500,000’s as recently as 2006, most homebuyers who were in their early adult lives were effectively priced out of Benicia housing market.

Today, though, with some single family homes priced as low as the $300,000’s, doors which had previously been closed to many young families wanting to live in Benicia have opened again — and in a big way, thanks too to record-low mortgage rates.

A perfect case in point is our daughter’s young family. Still in their 20’s, they moved back to Benicia and rented a townhome in 2005. At the time, the prospects of she and her husband ever being able to buy a home in Benicia were daunting. They were just starting out in their respective fields and watched as home prices continued to climb — on just about a weekly basis.

Last year, now well established in their career paths, a combination of falling home prices and interest rates enabled them to buy a home that two years earlier would have felt like a pipe dream.

The home previously was owned by a single lady, whose children had long ago graduated from Benicia’s schools. Our daughter and son-in-law have a two-year old and another on the way.

So a home that had once contributed to Benicia’s school population and later contributed to its declining enrollment will, within a few years, again be contributing to the school population.

And with more and more Benicia home buyers in that 25-35 age group, it’s very likely that we could see the school district’s recent declining enrollment pattern quickly reversed.

I haven’t heard or read anything locally indicating that the schools are poised to see enrollments increase once more. So this is merely an observation on my part. But it makes sense: with so many more young families now able to afford Benicia’s home prices, it just seems to follow that we should again start to see an increase in school enrollments.

When we moved to Benicia in the mid-1980s, it was well within the price range of many first-time buyers. So the school population increased dramatically, to the point where two new elementary schools were built beween the mid-1980s and early 1990s to accommodate all the new construction.

Today, there aren’t very many un-built lots left in town, so I don’t think we have to worry about the remaining vacant lots in the Water’s End ever creating a large enough housing impact to warrant a new school.

However, depending on how long prices and mortgage rates remain as low as they are right now, if enough buyers with school age children continue to buy in Benicia, it’s possible that in time, our four remaining schools could again be bursting at the seams.

Which begs the question: Did we close Mills Elementary too soon?

Time will tell. Hopefully the folks running our school district are putting two and two together and keeping a close eye on things.

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This post originally appeared here:

Did Benicia Act Too Soon When It Closed Mills Elementary School?