First, I would like to thank the readers of my Reno blog for reminding me for not posting last week, (I was well aware of it). It was routy and reminiscent of 2004, I had 5 offers on Monday and we negotiated them out all week, we went into escrow on two of them and we are still negotiating on one, the other two went into multiple offers and we lost. Fortunately, I hired another Reno Buyers Agent to handle the anticipated pickup this summer and he has been helping along with the ROCK Paul Armstrong (my existing Buyers Agent). We are sorting through the Buyers verses the Craig List Vampires (out for blood) Posers this week
In the last 6 weeks, the Reno real estate market seems to want to break out. We have 678 homes in escrow, last year at this time over a 60 day period (a long escrow to cover all of the sales) we had less than 200 closings. Although the majority of the sales admittedly are Reno R. E.O.s , short sales and the like, because many of these have multiple offers currently and it has helped shore up the Reno homes in general.
We have had a number of bullish events to get the fence sitters as well as the Vampires (Buyers looking for blood) to commit:
- Increasing interest rates (it spooks them into buying with the fear of higher payments)
- Decreasing interest rates (Fridays unemployment report and the resulting 10 year bond yield drop gives them even more of a sense of urgency)
- Reno Home Builders inventory and therefore choices have decreased while prices have firmed up for Reno new homes. (Still be careful in the outskirts and watch out for oversupply, high non owner occupancy ratios, high percentage of short sale/R.E.O. in relation to regular sales etc.)
- Pent up demand boiling over, let’s face it, folks need a roof over their head.
- A sense of the bottom; (remember, I called a stabilization in low supply, high demand areas of June 12, 2008 back in 2007 much to being challenged by the herd) I am still holding that prediction. There could be a temporary retest of the lows this winter but nothing major.
- I ran my model last week, it is showing a strong buy in O.S.W. district, Wefi, the Golden Triangle in 89511, Southwest and a couple of other areas. At this point, I would like to remind everyone that I called the top almost to the day back in April of 2004. Both of these are under the local market tab on www.renohomestalk.com. The peanut gallery tends to forget when it (my predictions) comes to fruition.
- Stock market uncertainty after a good run (selling high/profit taking) has brought money into Reno real estate (buying low).
- 1031 inflow of funds for Reno investment properties increasing from California.
- A general picking up of the Megatropolis market we feed on; Sacramento, the Bay Area, and Southern California.
- 9,000 Boomers retiring daily, they love our weather and cheap taxes, quality of life, state of the art/new health care etc. (The Nevada dream is still alive and well; retire to Nevada, learn to ride a Harley, buy a Reno home with an oversized garage, restore a classic car(s)/enter a Hot August night show and shine, buy a mini storage, golf more, ski more and in some cases marry a young foreign bride.
- An easing of the credit markets; Reno FHA for first time buyers of Reno homes, Jumbo Loans for luxury homes; Arrowcreek, Montreux, Legend Trails, Galena Forest, Incline Village, Caughlin Ranch, Somersett, Toll Brothers et al type of areas.
- Property A is finally selling resulting in Property B being bought; (the move up ladder if you will) this continues to C, D and so on selling/buying.
- Jobs, jobs and more jobs, you just can’t argue with one of the most tech, biotech, business, industrial, health care, scholastic/campus driven cities in the world.
I guess mostly; I am temporarily out of money as I bought 3 homes in the last year and have to watch these opportunities as an advisor to my clients who are taking advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity for Reno real estate. In the past, this has been a good barometer as my friends will happily remind me.
Have a good selling/buying week; Be brave when everyone is fearful!
Your Reno Realtor selling Reno and Tahoe homes;
Ron Bell
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