Robert Rauf

Last week was the 6th straight week of modest gains we have seen in Mortgage backed securities. Unfortunately we had a bit of a sell off Friday Afternoon that wiped out a really nice gain for the day, but overall the week still ended up with Fannie Prices UP 8/32nds. That is enough for rates to be down a little making homes more affordable.

This week is a mix of data with Infation reports and some Fed speak to mix things up a bit:

• Monday September 14: Its a no major news day. The market started the day off enough to wipe out last week's gain, but has since flattened out and is only off 2/32nds as I type.
• Tuesday September 15: Happy Birthday to... Well You know who you are!
• Tuesday: August Producer Price Index expected +.8% with a core of +.1%. The core level is the key here, showing little inflation pressure at the wholesale level. As forecast this is supportive of steady to possibly lower rates.
• Tuesday: August Retail sales expected +2% x-auto+0.4%. Cash For Clunkers.. Well look at the number and you will see that it worked, for cars at least. The balance was a weak back to school spending surge. Not likely to move the market.
• Tuesday: July Business Inventory expected -0.9%. July is OLD news at this point, so probably not much more than a Yawner. But it is a sign that we will see future production since the inventory numbers have been negative all year.
• Tuesday:(again)... Fed Chair Bernake speaks at a conference in DC "Reflections on a year of Crisis". This is expected to be a re-run of his speech made in WY in August. What we want to pay close attention to here is if he talks about closing the Fed Check book up since we are fast approaching October when the Fed is stepping out as a buyer of Treasuries and Mortgages. I don't expect there will be anything new here so it is not a likely market mover.
• Wednesday September 16: My 20th Wedding Anniversary...
• Wednesday: August Consumer Price Index expected +0.3% with a core rate of +0.1%. With a core that low the market should be happy and will be supportive of steady rates.
• Wednesday: August Industrial Production expected +0.6% and Capacity 69.0. This is a bump up from last month but is mostly due to Auto Production and inventory re building.... Not likely to be a market mover.
• Thursday September 17: Initial Jobless Claims expected up 5,000. not likely to move mortgage rates.
• Thursday: August Housing starts expected +3.2% and building permits expected +0.7%. This is a pretty modest UP, not likely to be any issue today.
• Friday: No significant news on the calendar.

Looking at the calendar it is probably going to be a quiet week, UNLESS we get a big shocker on CPI or PPI and possibly Retail sales. The markets doubt that there is a sustained economic recovery in the near term and inflation will most likely be calm as well... All supportive of steady to possibly lower rates for now.

So I dont see a real Biggie of the week. A wild card perhaps in the Bernake Speach if he happens to say he will keep the check book open for the rest of the year, that would make the market happy and will likely lower rates. But that is truly a wild card that we cant anticipate.

Thanks for reading, I hope this helps you understand what moves the market each day.

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

Mortgage Rates Are Back Near Historic Lows!

I have been tracking the ups and downs as Fannies are trading for quite some time now, and since the initial uptick this spring we have had a flat market. Don't get me wrong, there have been some crazy days with big swings and entire weeks that were nail biters.... BUT: if you tracked the ups and downs there were so many weeks that ended up unchanged by the closing of the market on Friday this summer that rates would look pretty flat if you were to graph them.

For almost 5 weeks we have seen Fannies trading slightly higher each week. With all this improvement in the price of Mortgage backed securities we have seen the yields on thirty year mortgages drop near levels we have not seen since the bottom we saw earlier this year. With Wednesday's and Thursday's auctions fairing pretty well and the market has been happy this week as well.

If the market continues down this path we may see interest rates drop back to the 4's we briefly saw early this year. We are darn close now. A Highly qualified buyer CAN get into the high 4s now pretty easily.

This may be the time! I still am worried about the Federal Reserve backing out of the credit markets. (That is happening in a month) When they do the crazy Supply and Demand issues kick in... Too much supply and one less buyer can lead to lower prices and higher yields.

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

Where will Mortgage Rates be this week?

I cant believe that summer is over. Where did this year go? Well The kids are back in school, and we still have work to do! Last week ended up slightly positive. We had a bit of a sell off towards the end of the week as I had expected with the long weekend, The last week of the summer is always a thinly traded week, but over all it was a positive one, and the past month has bee a very positive one for rates.

Moving forward this week, Here is what we have on the calendar:

• Monday: No business on Labor day!
• TuesdaySeptember 8: Treasury auction of $13 Billion in 3 year notes. The near term inflation numbers have been weak, and this being a short term security it should be fairly well bid, The auction starts at 1pm, and as I type this it appears to be going well with mortgages trading slightly higher in price. (which means the potential of lower rates today)
• WednesdaySeptember 9: Auction # 2 with $20 Billion in 10 year notes. This is expected to be a fairly easy sell to investors, but it is similar to mortgages and if investors are not happy with the yield and it gets pushed up, we may see mortgage rates creep up at the same time.
• ThursdaySeptember 10: Initial jobless claims expected down 5,000. Jobs are not expected to rebound any time soon, so there should be no surprises in this report that will move rates.
• Thursday: Auction #3 with $12 Billion in 30 year Bonds. I expect to see the Fed step in here and buy some of these if it is poorly bid. We only have about a month left of the Fed with an open check book to buy Treasuries and Mortgages. Comes October I am a little worried.
• Friday September 11: PLEASE PUT OUT A FLAG TODAY!!! Mine is always flying, but I will probably dip it to half mast....
• Friday: July Wholesale Inventories expected -1.0% vs. last month -1.7%. While this is an old number that is not likely to cause any ripples this week in the market, It is a sign that we may see factory orders bump up soon since Business Inventory has been shrinking all year. Once we see orders up it may be a sign of growth, inflation and rising rates.

Well this week we do not have any exciting or fresh data on the calendar. So from a market perspective we will see trading in Mortgages taking direction from both the stock market and the Treasury Auctions. We have seen a happy stock market for most of the summer months. If we see some profit taking in stocks along with well bid auctions it could be a recipe for noticeable improvement in Mortgage Rates. I actually feel that we will see a bumpy week, losing some ground with the 10 year auction on Wednesday and by time it is all played out we will probably have a fairly flat week by the end of the day on Friday with rates basically unchanged.

That's this weeks 2 cents worth!

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

This is one near and dear to my heart. For years I have been saying that our schools fail at teaching basic Money and Finances to our children. Here is an opportunity right at your local library to give your kids a head start on how to manage their money

What: free financial workshops for teens

When: 2 Tuesdays, Sept. 22 & Sept 29 @ 7 p.m.

Where: Jackson branch, 2 Jackson Dr.

CONTACT: Freda Lehman, (732) 92804400, ext 3833

flehman@theoceancountylibrary.org

Financial literacy workshops for teens

JACKSON - The Jackson branch (2 Jackson Drive) of the Ocean County Library will present "Dollars and Sense: Financial Literacy for Teens" on Tuesdays September 22^nd and 29^th at 7 p.m.

The session will help students in grade 7 through 12 prepare for a lifetime of managing their money wisely.

Finance specialist Murray Blasz will present a two-part course on credit, savings, budgeting and more! Teaching materials will be provided by The National Endowment for Financial Education. The workbooks will be used during the two sessions of the program, and then given to the participants to keep, free of charge.

This program is free and open to the public but registration is required. Please register in-person, by phone 732-928-4400 or online at www.oceancountylibrary.org.

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

This weeks Mortgage Rate Movers

Lets re-cap last week before we dig into this week: Mostly because it was a great one for interest rates. Even with some mixed signals we squeaked out a 15/32nd gain on Fannies last week which translates into a nice improvement on a rate sheet. This came together even with better than expected home sales numbers and a 2 yr auction that had higher yields than anticipated. So Score one for the credit markets!

That's enough of the old, How about the new: Well this weeks numbers start a new month of data (hard to believe that tomorrow is September all ready!) With a new month brings a basket of new data.

Here is this weeks calendar:

• MondayAugust 31: No major news day, but in the absence of the news we have a pretty happy market and as we approach the close we have the market trading solidly up 10/32nds
• TuesdaySeptember 1: Institute of Supply Mgt/Manufacturing index expected 50.1. Already factored into the soup, it is considered to be a toothless report which is not likely to move the credit markets.
• Wednesday September 2: Revised Q2 productivity expected 6.1% vs last 6.4%. The first productivity estimate was a guess. This Revision is not likely to move rates.
• Wednesday: July Factory Orders expected +1.5%. Now that September is here, no one cares about July Numbers. Old news is not that important in a very forward looking market.
• Thursday, September 3: Happy Birthday Susan Mangigian, And Happy Birthday to me as well!
• Thursday: Initial Jobless claims expected down 20,000. Most analysts believe that it will take a long time for the jobs market to recover. This ugly estimate is not likely to be a mover, especially with Friday's number just 24 hours away.
• Thursday: Institute of Supply mgt/Service Sector expected 48.7. The slight improvement over last month is anticipated. Near the target it is not likely to hurt at all, but if it comes in above 50, expect rates to bump up with it.
• FridaySeptember 4: August jobs report with Non farm payroll -265,000, Jobless rate 9.5% and average earnings flat. This guestimate is typically pretty accurate, but when the analysts get it wrong that is when all hell breaks loose in the market.

There are 2 biggies of the week, one on the calendar, and one the calendar it self. First off the data piece: Fridays employment report is traditionally a market mover and should be watched closely, While Thursday's birthdays have absolutely no effect what so ever. If non farm payrolls are -235k or better with a 9.4% jobless rate, stocks will rally and interest rates will be hurt on the good news, but if the jobs report is weaker than forecast, just the opposite will hold true.

Now for the Calendar it self: This is traditionally one of the lightest trading weeks of the year. The last chance to squeakin a few extra summer vacation days. Thin Trading ahead of a long weekend is almost always problematic. Historically I have seen the trading be very conservative headed into the close on Friday. Foreign markets are open Monday while our markets are closed, that just adds to the concerns. So if the market goes bad, it is more likely to go bad fast since there will be less volume flowing to settle things down.

It is a tough call this week, I would be most cautious of Fridays report and pay close attention to the day to day trading and the good vs bad days in stocks. The stock market has the potential to rob from the credit markets and that will be a driving force in rates as well.

Have a wonderful week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey