Robert Rauf

I am sure that we all remember EXACTLY where we were on 9/11. I know I was just outside of DC in a meeting that never happened and spent a hellish ride home not knowing anything. First thing I did when I got home was put out a flag, I don't even know why, and I never understood the patriotism that caused so many to enlist in the military after 12/7/1941 until that day.

I received a "chain" email reminding everyone to fly the American flag on September 11th and to tell 11 friends to do the same.

So this is my Chain Email to remind the 156,531 members of Active Rain and my friends on FaceBook to fly their flags to honor those who lost their lives on 9/11, their families, friends and loved ones who continue to endure the pain, and those who today are fighting at home and abroad to preserve our cherished freedoms.

Have a great week.

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

Mortgage Interest Rates, and the events on the calendar that may move them

This week has a little bit of everything to keep the markets entertained: From Auctions to they typical monthly data keeping things moving.

Last week ended up a mixed bag with some nice UP days and some not so nice DOWN days, by the end of the week we only lost 1/32nd in the price of Fannies close enough to "Unchanged" that from Friday to Friday there was not much to worry about. This week is a tough one to call, but I expect more of the same ups and downs to upset our stomachs.

Here is this weeks Economic Calendar:

• MondayAugust 24: Today is a no news day, and in the absenceof any data the market is trading comfortably up, with Fannies trading up 9/32nds at Noon. This surprised me a bit, especially since we have solid gains in stocks today.
• Tuesday, August 25: Auction #1 for the week with $42 Billion in 2 year notes. The sell off in the credit markets on Friday probably has yields at high enough levels to keep investors interested in this auction, and it will probably be well bid which will be supportive of steady rates.
• Wednesday August 26: July Durable Goods expected +3.2% ex auto +1.0%. Not likely to move the markets much.
• Wednesday: July New Home sales expected +1.5%. If this forecast is accurate it will be the 4th month with a gain in New Home sales. Mortgages are not likely to move higher on this news unless it comes in at an improvement of +2% or higher.
• Wednesday: Auction #2 for the week with$39 Billion in 5 year notes. Last month the 5 year auction was not well bid, and foreign investment was noticeablyabsent. If foreign investors stay away this time it will be bad for mortgages. Analysts think that the yield should be high enough that we will see demand from foreign and domestic bidders.
• Thursday August 27: Initial jobless claims expected down 16,000. The weekly numbers have been high all year, not a likely market mover.
• Thursday: Revised second quarter GDP expected -1.4%. This number shows the decline in growth is not as bad as it was, and that is the spin that will be put on it. As inventory went down in the first half of the year it will need to be replaced the rest of the year which will show improvement in manufacturing. My Go to Guy thinks it would take the revision to be at -2.0% or worse to help improve rates, and that is not a likely thing.
• Thursday: Third auction of the week, this time $28 Billion in 7 year notes. Foreign investment is key here. if well bid this will be supportive of steady rates.
• FridayAugust 28: July Personal income expected +0.1%, Spending +0.2% and PCE +0.1%. This is a FED favorite. If the numbers match it is likely supportive of steady or even improving mortgage rates. This number is all about what the consumer is doing, not thinking, or feeling... That is why the Fed looks at it so closely.

At first glance I would pick Fridays PCE index as the biggie of the week, but I am more concerned about the auctions. It is not just the excess supply in the market (which is always a concern) it is because the FED came out and said it is just about done buying treasuries and Mortgages and its check book will soon be put away. (If you have not been reading my blogs: The FED has been a major player in the credit markets, stepping in and buying mortgages and Treasuries to help calm the market and keep interest rates near the record low levels we have seen all year). So as of October we lose a big buyer in the markets. It is yet to be seen how investors feel about that, andwe will findout either this month or next, and it will be during an auction when there is excess supply that it will become apparent!

My gut says we may lose a little ground this week, but it could be just like last week and we could end up dizzy by the end of the week but end up in the same place by close of business on Friday.

Have a great week.

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

I just received a news flash from NJAR with a reminder that there are only 101 days left to take advantage of the first time buyer Tax Credit.

Here is what it said:

The Clock Is Ticking - Encourage First-Time Buyers to Act Now

As of today, there are only 101 days left for first-time buyers to qualify for the $8,000 federal first-time home buyer tax credit. In order to qualify, the transaction must close before 11:59 p.m. on November 30, 2009. The Get the REAL Story^® public education campaign is encouraging prospective buyers to maximize their purchasing power in this unique market, while also being aware of the amount of time needed to complete a purchase before the tax credit expires. Prospective buyers should note that all transactions vary, and there are different circumstances for each person that can lead to a longer buying process.

So, What does it take to put that Eight Grand in your pocket? Well you need to be a first time buyer which is defined as NOT owning a home in the past 3 years. You need to have an income of less than $75,000 if single or less than $150,000 if married (phases out entirely above $95k/$170k) AND, you need to buy a home and close before the end of November.

There has been a lot of talk and assumptions that this will be extended, but as of now this credit does not have to be repaid if you live in the home for 3 years. The previous tax credit had to be re paid.

This is REAL money people!!! If you have a home already make sure your friends and Family know about this credit. (Yes I am yelling, because not enough people have taken advantage!)

The combination of Low Prices, Historically low interest rates and Cash from Uncle Sam make the purchase of a home more affordable than ever!

Have a great weekend!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

Cattus Island Park

Looking for something to do this weekend?

• Take A hike
• Walk the Dog
• Get your feet wet in the Barnegat bay
• Visit the nature Center
• See a Butterfly Garden
• See some wild life
• have a picnic
• ?

Cattus Island is just the Ticket.

I have been visiting Cattus Island off and on for years now, it is a great spot all times of the year to take the dog for a walk, get the kids out in the fresh air and see some wild life. The last two weekends I took my Dog for a walk and a Quick Swim... They do want your dog on a Leash, so don't forget to bring one.

The Main Trail in to the beach from the parking lot is a little over a mile with a nice beach at the end that faces Silver bay Here is a photo from a few weeks ago on an overcast day

There are miles of Trails to choose from, here is a Link to a Trail MapI found on the Cattus Island website.

The last two trips we saw the usual bird life, along with Nesting Osprey and Oodles of Deer, I even saw a few Bucks which is a rare site.

Hiking is Flat and easy I would suggest bringing some Bug Spray just in case... Bugs are not always a problem, but they can be hungry at times. Along the trails you will see numerous Eagle Projects that were completed by Scouts over the years. One of the Osprey Nests and one of the benches were built in the past few years by kids from my sons Troop.

Right off of Fischer Blvd in Toms River it is easy to get to and worth the trip.

Have a great weekend!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey

Below are 2 charts showing a LONG history of interest rates.

• The most recent history shows the past 20 years with an average interest rate on a 30 year fixed of 7.47%. The average over the past 40 years is 9.47%.
• The second chart is the 200 year history of Long-Term US Government securities,(prior to 40 years ago there was no consistent means of tracking Mortgage rates since there was no trading of MBS. The only true interest rate data available is from Uncle Sam.)

These charts pretty clearly show how good we have it right now and what a great opportunity it is for buyers in today's market. Even with the bump up in rates in the past few months we are still in the low 5's for a highly qualified borrower. The combination of historically low rates and low prices have made buying a home more affordable than it has been in years.

These are two pieces I put together for my business partners, unfortunately the conversion from a PDF to a JPG killed the quality. If you would like to see the clear and pretty versions I can email you the PDF, just shoot me an email at: RRauf@remn.com and I would be happy to send it to you.

Have a great week.

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

NJ Mortgages, New Jersey Mortgages, Mortgages in NJ, mortgage in New Jersey, Mortgages in New Jersey