Roy Sanborn --Lakes Region of New Hampshire

The Lake Winnipesaukee Waterfront Cottage.

Every real estate agent invariably gets a call this time of year from someone looking for their little piece of the Lakes Region of New Hampshire. It goes something like:

Caller: "Hello, I'm looking for a waterfront cottage on Lake Winnipesaukee, do you have anything available?"

Agent: "Sure, there are lots of properties on the lake right now. It's a great time to buy! What are you looking for?"

Caller: "Well, we'd like to be on right on the lake with a beach, a dock, at least a couple of bedrooms, preferably three, and some privacy. We don't want to be real close to another house. And condition doesn't matter so much. We can fix it up."

Agent: "That's nice. What were you thinking that you might be willing to spend?"

Caller: "Oh, I don't know. Probably $100,000 to $150,000"

Agent: "Groan, Uh, Ma'am, I'm sorry you are not going to find anything on Winni for that kind of money. Generally speaking, you're probably going to have to spend $400,000 to $500,000 for a little camp on a small lot. You probably will have to look on some of the smaller lakes and then you are still not likely to find much, if anything, in that price range."

Caller: "You're kidding. All we want is a little cottage. Nothing much. We can fix it up. What about just a piece of waterfront land?"

Agent: "Ma'am, I'm sorry, but you can't even buy a waterfront lot for that kind of money. Let me see what I can find you on another lake...."

Unfortunately, many buyers don't know how expensive that little cottage on the big lake, or any lake, is these days. The average asking price on the lake right now is $1,897,188 with a median price of $1,324,450. The average sales price for a Winni waterfront (including island properties) for the 1^st half of 2009 was $838,858. That's a long way from $150K! On Winnipesaukee, the least expensive, mainland waterfront is at 128 Mount Major Highway in Alton at $249,000. It is a 2 bedroom seasonal cottage on the opposite side of the road with a 1 bedroom seasonal cottage on the lake. It has 121' for frontage but you are sandwiched between Rt. 11 and the lake. The next one up the price line is another seasonal, 1930's vintage, 2 bedroom cottage with 50' of waterfront on 12 Haven Lane in Alton for $344,900.

The least expensive waterfront on Lake Winnisquam at this point is at 907 Laconia Road in Tilton. This 5 room, 3 bedroom cottage was built in 1948, has 100' of waterfront, is billed as needing some TLC and is offered "as is" at $299,000. Next up is a rehabbed 3 bedroom property built in 1960 at 38 Eastman Shore in Laconia with 80' of shorefront for $334,900. The average asking price for Winnisquam waterfront homes is currently $656,126 and the average sales price for the 1^st half of '09 was $341,250. Over on Waukewan, the least expensive waterfront is at 25 Chapman Point in New Hampton for $469,000. It is a 5 room, 2 bedroom cottage built in 1965 and sits on a .25 acre lot with 100' of frontage.

But you can find some less expensive cottages on some smaller lakes. For $199,900 you can get the 1 bedroom cottage at 3 Cove Lane in New Hampton on Lake Winona. It sits on .1 acres with 45 ft of frontage. On Locke Lake in Barnstead there is a 3 bedroom cottage at 276 Varney Rd offered at $214,900.

The point is that the dream, perhaps the myth, of owning a little cottage on the water for cheap money on the bigger lakes has evaporated over time and the inexpensive ones on the smaller lakes generally aren't much to brag about. Prices may drop a little more during this difficult market period, but the days of a $150,000 waterfront get-a-way are sadly long gone...

Caller: "Well, if you come across a deal on a waterfront in our price range could you give me a call?"

Agent: "Sure thing, Ma'am, will do..."

Across the nation there are signs of recovery in the housing market with sales of existing homes rising 3.6% in June and new home sales taking a big jump with an 11% increase. Much of the increase is said to be attributed to the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers. This highly successful program which ends Dec. 1 will hopefully be extended, increased, and expanded to include all buyers to further jumpstart the ailing housing markets. I believe the success of this program is due to the simplicity of the program that utilizes the good old basic tax credit as the incentive to buy.

On the other hand, the highly touted government plan to help troubled homeowners modify their mortgages is probably having as much trouble as the homeowners themselves. According to the AP, the plan has a goal of helping 3 to 4 million troubled homeowners yet only about 200,000 homeowners have been enrolled in the 3 month trial loan modifications. It seems like the government is blaming the mortgage companies for dragging their feet in implementing the program while the mortgage companies say the program is anything but easy to implement, difficult to administer, and requires the hiring and training of thousands of employees. Hopefully, they will get the bugs worked out of the program.

Another government stimulus program, the popular Cash for Clunkers, is intended to help get inefficient gas guzzling autos of the highway and spur on new car sales by paying up to $4,500 for each clunker traded in for a more fuel efficient inefficient vehicle. It has been so successful that it burned through its entire initial budget of $1 billion in a week! While there is some concern on the part of many dealerships about not getting paid for the deals in progress and lots of problems with paperwork and government red tape, the program has been hugely successful but perhaps a bit wasteful. The program requires that the "clunkers" that are traded in must be destroyed and not resold even though they are perfectly usable automobiles. Based on the proliferation of not so nice bank owned and other practically uninhabitable properties in the marketplace today maybe the clunker program should be applied to the housing industry in some fashion? All we need to do is print more money, acquire these uninhabitable properties, and tear them down to create nice building lots or green space. That's one way to lower the inventory. We could call it "Dollars for Dumps". I am kidding of course, especially about printing more money...

The dog days of summer might finally be here now that the monsoons have ended. Property showings seem to be increasing as the long awaited summer time home shoppers finally realized that it is actually summer. We badly need buyers to whittle away at the 23 month supply of residential homes on the market in the towns represented in this Lakes Region of NH report. Last August we had slightly more homes on the market (1313) but both the average list price of $530,246 and median list of $299,246 were lower than this year!! Prices should be coming down, not going up. Over the past 12 months the average sales price for a single family home was $290,369 and the median sales price was $198,000 which are both dramatically lower than the average and median asking prices showing once again that it is mostly the lower priced homes that are selling.

Residential Homes For Sale as of August 1, 2009

There was a little more sales activity in the residential home market in the Lakes Region of NH in June with 75 units changing hands at an average sales price of $266,119. That is up from the 69 homes sold in May 2008 but down slightly from the 77 homes sold in June of 2008. The average sales price this June came in at $266,119 which is down considerably from last June's average sales price of $344,228.

The total number homes that sold in the first six months of 2009 dropped by only 8 units from last year down to 151 transactions but the average sales price dropped from $363,752 to $254,071! That is a 30% decrease in the average sales price and it is about the same average we were back in 2002. Residential Sales Comparison for January through June

The drop in the average sales price so far this year is pretty dramatic. Homes are certainly selling for less than in the peak market, but a lot of this decrease seems to be reflective of the shift in the market with regard to what is actually selling. There is a larger number of lower priced homes selling and far fewer high end sales. In the first half of 2008 there were 20 homes that sold over the $1 million mark compared to just 6 so far this year. Sales of million dollar plus homes in the 1^st half of 2008 represented a dollar volume of $36.15 million compared to just $8.9 million in 2009. That is a $27.2 million drop in total dollar volume that equates to a drop in the average sales price by almost $79,000 per home.

Mid priced homes stayed pretty much the same in terms of units sold. There were 37 homes in the $400 to $1 million range that sold in the 1^st half of 2008 compared to 33 this year. Home sales in the $300-400,000 range remained consistent with 31 sold in the 1^st half of last year and 30 sold so far this year. These totals aren't great, as anyone trying to sell a home in these price ranges will attest to, but at least they didn't get much worse.

There was a pretty good drop in the $200-300,000 price range with 106 homes selling in the 1^st half of 2008 compared to 67 in so far this year. I would bet that many of the homes in the low $200,000 price range adjusted their prices to below $200,000 mark in order to find a buyer. This along with flood of bank owned properties on the market would account for the increased sales under $200,000. There were 170 homes that sold under $200,000 in the first half of 2009 compared to 119 in for the same period last year.

If we have a great waterfront sales season the average price will probably increase considerably. That, unfortunately, doesn't really mean much. What we really need is a renewed confidence, a strong economy, and stability in the job markets which would in turn give the many apprehensive would-be home buyers sitting on the fence the confidence to pursue their dream home regardless of the price range. That will take a little more time than one summer sales season...

Residential Homes Sold June 2009

Compiled using the NNEREN MLS System

178 Channel Lane, Laconia offered at $1.5 million

Waterfront property sales make up a significant portion of the overall Lakes Region of NH residential home sales volume. So how are we doing half way through 2009? In the communities that border Lake Winnipesaukee (Alton, Center Harbor, Gilford, Laconia, Meredith, Moultonborough, Tuftonboro, and Wolfeboro) there were only 30 waterfront sales (including island properties) through June 30th representing $25,195,752 in total sales and an average sales price of $839,858. Overall, there were 252 residential sales transactions in these towns with a total sales volume of $73,970,665, so waterfront sales represented about 34% of the total sales volume so far in 2009.

Comparatively, in the first half of 2008 there were slightly more waterfront sales on Winnipesaukee (33) but the total dollar volume of these transactions came in significantly higher at $46,031,845 which translates to an higher average sales price of $1,394,904. There was a total of 237 residential transactions in the 1st half of 2008 producing $110,570,858 in total sales volume for all residential transactions with waterfronts making up 41% of that dollar volume. Looking back one more year to 2007, there were 50 Winnipesaukee waterfront sales through the first half of the year with a total sales volume of $55,614,400 and an average sales price of $763,750. There was a total of 320 residential sales producing $148,608,457 in total sales volume with waterfront sales making up 37% of the total dollar volume.

So, waterfront sales on Winnie are up and down but still happening. Just not as many as we'd like to see. Perhaps the biggest concern is that as of 7/5/09 there were 215 waterfront properties (including island properties) with an average asking price of $1,884,690 currently listed on the lake. Based on the sales rate over the past year that translates 3 years worth of inventory! There are124 waterfront homes offered over the $1 million mark which leaves 91 properties under $1 million. There are 3 waterfronts currently pending including a $6.7 million property on Governors Island, so there truly are buyers out there.

Lake Winnisquam has always been a very desirable and less expensive alternative to Winnipesaukee appealing to those looking for a quieter, more laid back feeling. Sales have been slow with only 2 transactions so far this year at an average sale price of $341,250 . That compares to 3 sales in the 1st half of 2008 at an average of $492,667, and 3 sales in the 1st half of 2007 at an average sales price of $546,333. As of July 6, there were 36 waterfront properties offered on Winnisquam which represents a huge 4½ years worth of inventory on the market. The average asking price on this lake as of 7/5/09 was $624,994. There are also 3 pending sales on Winnisquam and hopefully many more to come as the summer sun eventually, and begrudgingly, shines on the Lakes Region waterfront market...

Compiled using the NNEREN MLS system.

Now that bike week has past, the NASCAR race is over, and the July 4th holiday is here, hopefully the vacation home buyers will be out in force looking for their little piece of the Lakes Region over the coming few months. Many second home buyers tend to look in the gated, water access communities of South Down Shores and Long Bay. And why shouldn't they? It's the perfect place to start any vacation home search. Located three miles north of downtown Laconia on Parade Road, this wonderfully conceived 260 acre complex has a mixture of eighteen different condominium villages, each with its own unique architecture and appeal, as well as free standing single family homes. Prices range from below $200,000 for some entry level condos to the high six digits for some fantastic water-view single family homes.

Residency here means access to the extraordinary amenities that South Down offers. Along the 4,000 feet of shorefront on Lake Winnipesaukee there is a beautiful sandy beach, a beach house, a sand volleyball court, a playground, beautifully landscaped green spaces, plenty of Adirondack chairs to lounge in, and walking trails. The South Down Boat Club has 40 boat slips and 40 moorings along with over 200 dry berths. Other amenities here include tennis courts, basketball courts, a skating pond, and walking/cross country trails. And a few of the condominium villages even have their own private pools.

At the far end of South Down is the Long Bay community which encompasses a total area of approximately 100 acres of land and offers high quality, unique, single family homes. Architecture varies dramatically in Long Bay with the homes projecting the builder's or homeowner's individuality and taste. There are stunning water views from many of the homes looking out over the 1,500 feet of shorefront of Paugus Bay. Amenities in Long Bay include the beach, tennis courts, boat docking, walking trails, a club house, plus a beautiful pool overlooking the bay. Kind of like an all inclusive vacation resort right in the heart of the Lakes Region of New Hampshire. Most homes here are re-sales and are on the higher end of the pricing spectrum, but new construction in the Willow Pond section is available and starts at a remarkably low price of $279,900. Access to these communities is restricted so you must contact your REALTOR® to give you the nickel tour and view the properties.

There are 1223 residential homes available as of July 1 in the Lakes Region communities listed in this report. That total is up from last month's total of 1170 but just slightly below last July's total of 1227. Unfortunately, these 1223 homes represent a 22 month supply of inventory currently on the market which is about three times what is considered a normal, healthy inventory level. The high inventory level is not very good if you are selling your home, but it is great for anyone out looking to buy. There's a lot to choose from and some pretty good bargains out there, too. In fact, I bet your REALTOR® could find you two fantastic deals to buy at the same time! Maybe if everyone did that it would help us get the inventory level back down to normal!

Residential Homes For Sale as of July 1, 2009

Compiled from the NNEREN MLS system as of 7/1/09