Heather Tawes Nelson ABR, CLHMS - Scottsdale, AZ

Last week, I attended the annual SRP Economic Forecast at the Arizona Biltmore resort in Phoenix. There were two keynote speakers - Lee McPheters, who looked at the forecast from an Arizona perspective and Don Reynolds who came at it from a national and international perspective. There were a lot of great points made and I wanted to share some of the highlights.

Lee McPheters, among many other things, is the Director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at Arizona State University. He studies the Arizona market very carefully and here are a few of the takeaways I got from his presentation:

• Arizona mimics the national pattern of decline and recovery. So, when the nation begins to recover, Arizona can expect to see recovery.
• However, when Arizona does start to recover, we can expect it will be very strong.
• A majority of economists believe we are already in recovery mode. However, there is a disconnect between the economists and consumers. Consumers still believe we have another year or two until recovery begins.
• While there have been some indicators that Arizona is getting back on its feet, he feels it still has a way to go and more bad news is coming. Arizona still faces unemployment and job creation issues as well as a new wave of foreclosures and loan resets.
• The year 2009 is the year of bottoming out. We will see some impact as well into 2010, but to a lesser extent.
• Mr. McPheters anticipates we will see things getting back on track in 2011 and beyond, but it will not be until 2014 when we will see low unemployment again.
• Three things that Arizona has going for it is a strong rate of in-migration, housing is now affordable again and that once recovery starts, it should be relatively rapid.

Don Reynolds, the founder of 21st Century Forecasting, also gave an enlightening presentation. Here are a few of his takeaways:

• We are now operating under a "new normal." Things have changed and the impact is going to be around for a while.
• Mr. Reynolds believes we are in a recovery mode and better off than we were a year ago. However, we can expect to see deflation in the shorter-term followed by significant inflation.
• China, India and Brazil are poised for great growth.
• The housing picture is a mixed bag. On one hand, homes are a lot more affordable now, but on the other hand, a significant number of homes are underwater and we have $2 trillion in ARM resets coming.
• Economic recovery will be led by corporations, not consumers. Once corporate recovery is more widespread, consumer confidence will follow.
• Mr. Reynolds predicts that a year from now, we will see an improvement in unemployment and economic growth.

While today's session had a lot of food for thought and some sobering news, there were also quite a few glimmers of positive news. It should be interesting to see how the next year plays out at a local level as well as national and international levels.

Originally posted on Scottsdale Real Estate News & Lifestyle.

Here are the results for August 2009 and the Scottsdale AZ luxury home market. For this analysis, luxury homes are defined as single-family resale homes in Scottsdale priced $1,000,000 and above.

August saw mixed results for the various price points. It was a particularly difficult month for homes priced over $2M. Sales and pending sales were off, although inventory continued to decrease.

- August 2009 -
Homes Priced Between $1,000,000 - $1,499,999
- Actives: 366 homes were for sale in this price point, a 3.2% decrease over July. This number has been decreasing steadily each month since February, when there were 539 homes for sale. The 12 month average is 491.
- Pendings: Pending sales went up to 40. This is the second highest this figure has been in the last year. The 12 month average is 26 per month.
- Sold: There were 21 home sales in August, an improvement over July's 18 sales. The 12 month average is 16 sales per month.
- Sales Price to Listed Price: 88.1%. This is pretty typical for this price point.

Homes Priced Between $1,500,000 - $1,999,999
- Actives: There were 241 homes for sale at the end of August, up 1.7% over July. This is the first time this number has increased since April. The 12 month average is 280.
- Pendings: Seventeen homes were pending at the end of the month, a nice jump over July's 11. The 12 month average is 11.
- Sold: Only six homes sold in August at this price point, tracking behind the 12 month average of 7.
- Sales Price to Listed Price: 86.5%.

Homes Priced Between $2,000,000 - $2,999,999
- Actives: 222 homes were for sale in this price point at the end of July. This number has been decreasing steadily since January, when there were 365 homes for sale. The 12 month average is 321.
- Pendings: There were five pending sales, which is behind the 12 month average of 6 sales.
- Sold: Only three homes sold in August, which is significantly less than we saw in July when there were nine sales. The 12 month average is 5 sales.
- Sales Price to Listed Price: 88.2%. This is about average for where this figure has been over the last 12 months.

Homes Priced $3,000,000+
- Actives: There were 149 homes for sale in this price point at the end of August. This number continues to decrease month over month. The 12 month average is 237.
- Pendings: Two homes were pending at the end of the month, significantly off of the 12 month average of 6.
- Sold: For the second month in a row, two homes sold in this price point. As with the pending sales, this is well behind the 12 month average of 4.
- Sales Price to Listed Price: 64.7%. This indicates that the homes were sold at a significant discount off of asking price.

As you can see, the results vary quite a bit between the price segments. The good news is that the number of homes for sale is decreasing for the bulk of the price ranges. Sales and pending sales activity is mixed, with the higher price points suffering more.

This information was originally posted on Scottsdale Real Estate News & Lifestyle. For the detailed data behind this report, please visit my Scottsdale luxury real estate market reports page and click on the "Scottsdale Market Trends" report. For other information on the Scottsdale real estate market and the surrounding areas, please visit my Real Estate Market Reports page.

Disclaimer: Data and information was pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 9/1/2009 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at single-family resale homes in Scottsdale over the preceding 12 months. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes.

August 2009 for Scottsdale AZ homes for sale, was another strong month in terms of pending sales (up 3.8% over July) and inventory decreases (down 1.1% over July), but sales were off for the second month in a row - off 15.8% over July.

August 2009 Findings
Active Homes for Sale: At the end of August, the number of homes on the market went down slightly to 2,752. It has been tracking under 3,000 for three months now. The twelve month average for this figure is 3,575.
Pending Home Sales: There were 520 pending home sales. This is up over July's 501, but not as high as the figures we saw in May and June. The 12 month average for this figure is 383.
Homes Sold: There were 330 home sales in August, which is the second month in a row where sales have tapered off. However, this figure is still ahead of the 12 month average for this segment is 274.
Sales Price to List Price: August's sales price to list price ratio was 92.2%.  This figure has tracked in the high 80%'s to low 90%'s over the last year.

To see the original post, please visit Scottsdale Real Estate News & Lifestyle. For more detailed figures on the Scottsdale real estate market, please visit my Scottsdale Real Estate Market Reports page.

Disclaimer: Data and information was pulled from the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) as of 9/1/2009 and can change at any time. The analysis looks at single-family resale homes in Scottsdale AZ over the last 12 months. There may be new home inventory in these figures if the developer is using the MLS to market its homes.
Copyright © 2009 Heather Tawes Nelson

Located on the corner of Scottsdale Road and Jomax Road and encompassing 1,300 acres, Mac Donald's Ranch is a North Scottsdale treasure where you can embrace your inner cowboy or cowgirl and experience the ranch lifestyle.

Mac Donald's Ranch offers a variety of options from trail rides where you can enjoy and explore the Sonoran Desert and beautiful views, to hay rides that end in a desert cookout, to horseback riding lessons and more. There is also a small zoo onsite and you will often see new additions to the ranch. The last time we were there, we got to see a litter of piglets that were a day old.

For the kids or grandkids, there are impromptu pony rides around the front area and even a "Mine" where they can dig and pan for hidden treasure.

Mac Donald's Ranch is great for parties large or small. You can either pay a site fee and bring your own food and drink or, you can let the team at Mac Donald's Ranch set up and serve an authentic "Cowboy Cookout" for you. There are BBQ pits up front as well as several cookout sites throughout the ranch.

If you want to add even more fun to your event, there are many options you can add-on including a trick pony, a western balladeer, a petting zoo, cattle drives and even having two armed bandits hold-up your hayride.

Mac Donald's Ranch also hosts some wonderful seasonal events. During Halloween, it becomes home to a large pumpkin patch with a hay-bale maze and during the holiday season, there is the most beautiful display of lights, transforming the desert along the hay ride path.

More Information:
MacDonald's Ranch
26540 N Scottsdale Rd
Scottsdale, AZ 85255
480.585.0239
http://www.macdonaldsranch.com/
Open Daily

Sedona is one of the most visually stunning places in the world. Known for its red and pink cliffs, Sedona can be reached in about two hours from Scottsdale.

Sedona's elevation is 4,500 feet, making the summers a bit cooler than Scottsdale and the Phoenix Valley, although the normal high temperature still comes in around 93.

If you like outdoor pursuits, head over to Oak Creek Canyon where you can fish on 49 fishable miles, picnic, hike, camp, swim and even take a ride on the natural water slide at Slide Rock State Park. (Click for Joyce Tawes' post on hiking West Fork, which is said to be the most popular hike in Coconino County.)

Another way to enjoy the outdoors while exploring Sedona is to take a Jeep tour. There are several tour operators who will take you out to see the cliffs up close, view historical ruins and enjoy scenic vistas. Although I have not had a chance to try them yet, the tour operator that stands out in my mind is Pink Jeep Tours. (And yes, the Jeeps are pink...)

If you like to shop and browse through galleries, you will not want to miss Tlaquepaque. Tlaquepaque is an arts and crafts village that features wonderful art, handmade items and several restaurants. There are also many restaurants, stores and boutiques in downtown Sedona to choose from.

Sedona is believed to be the site of several spiritual vortices and many folks come to visit them. If the thought of vortices makes you curious, there are many New Age shops in town where you can learn more about them.

Sedona is an easy day trip from Scottsdale, but since it is so beautiful and there are so many things to do, you may want to consider taking a few days to stay and explore.