Ron Wickes - Lake Conroe

Yes it is true, sales in Montgomery County, Texas fell this April versus last April but prices rose in three of the four MLS areas that comprise the county. In MLS area 15 (The Woodlands & west) prices rose 14.12%, in MLS area 39 (Lake Conroe) they rose 2.98%, in MLS area 40 (East county) they rose 13.87% and lastly in MLS area 19 (Conroe) they fell 12.9%. Those numbers are 2008 versus 2007. Amazing that sales fall and the sales prices continue to rise. The "deal" that some of you were hoping for is probably not going to materialize. The number of active listings is also starting to stabilize. County wide there was only a 1.29% increase over the number of active listings at the end of last April.
The average "Days on the Market" did take a big hit versus last April. The increases in this area for the four MLS areas ranged from a low increase of 14.7% to a high increase of 22.8%. Okay so your house takes longer to sell but there is a good chance you may get more money for it. Plan better and plan early is probably the key there.
In looking at the actual sales numbers they did fall again. The amount of decrease is smaller though and I think shows that the bottom is near. I will give you the actual numbers later this week. Don't be surprised if the deal you thought was there vanishes overnight. Last week a client of mine finally decided to make an offer on a home she had been looking at for three months. Well guess what, that same day the buyer got two other offers and my client's was not the high one. Please if you are thinking of making an offer make it today. Time waits for no person.
I hope you all had a great Memorial Weekend.
Ron

Do you have thoughts about selling your home and buying another one or possibly moving out of your apartment into a home? Is the lack of information about your subdivision or the subdivision you would like to move into keeping you from making the decision? Well look no further. Information on most individual subdivisions in Montgomery County is available. All you have to do is ask me and you will have it. I can tell you the price range, number of sales, price per square foot, average annual change etc. for most of the subdivisions in our county.
So please send me an email and get what you need. And yes I would love to list your home for sale and/or help you buy a new one.
Thanks and have a great day.
Ron

Prior to the release of the April sales numbers I thought it might be interesting to take a look at more of the numbers and see if people are still moving and to try and see if the market really has dropped or because of the credit crunch has the market just shifted a little. Here is what I found in looking at the first quarter of 2008 vs the same period 2007. These numbers are for Montgomery County.
Total unit sales of single family residences and townhomes/condos for the first three months of 2008 vs 2007 were down 18.5%. Big number right? Not so fast. Single family residence and townhomes/condo rentals for the same period were up 8.5% At this point we are left with a year-to-year decline of about 10%. But, and I do not have access to these numbers, rumor has it that apartment rentals are up at least that much if not more. And let's remember that the foreclosure rate in Texas is up only about 11% from the previous year and not 65% as advertised so blatantly on CNN today.
Conclusion? That the demand for housing in some form is still present. Is home ownership a problem for those with less than stellar credit? Yes. Can this problem be fixed? In many cases yes. More on that at a later date. Is real estate still a good year to year investment? Yes especially if you are an investor and thinking of purchasing homes for rental income.
Once again I have to tell you please do not believe all that you read in the national media. Montgomery County, Texas is still a great market. It is still a vibrant market with a ton of opportunities available. It is a good time to sell and buy.
See you later.
Ron

As a lot of you know the annual NFL college draft was last weekend. Prior to the draft almost all sports writers published a mock draft. In some cases they published several versions changing them on an almost daily basis. From the mock drafts I read and the actual draft results I saw, few if any of the writers were correct in their guesses. It will probably be the same with this blog today. I am going to "mock draft" the April single family residence sales numbers for Montgomery County, Texas about three weeks before they actually come out. I can't figure out if I am being brave or just not so smart in doing this. Drop me an email and let me know what you think. Here we go.
I think the bottom has been hit. Yes we will probably be down from the sales numbers of April, 2007 but I also believe that at least two of the MLS areas in the county will be up over March, 2008, one area will come close to the March, 2008 numbers and that the fourth will still be down some but not hugely. I think that the average sales price will be somewhat stagnant as compared to the increases we have seen in the past. This price stagnation is not bad or indicative of a major trend in my opinion but only reflects the current market situation.
With the school year approaching its' end, our warm lake water weather here and interest rates still very low I think we will see our sales numbers improving. Okay, please remember this is a "mock draft" only. When the final April numbers are published in about three weeks I will grade myself just as the sports writers grade the NFL teams. Hopefully I will do better than the "C" one well known Houston sports writer gave our beloved Houston Texans.
I hope you are having a great week.
Ron

I learned my first lesson on blogging. Never promise to do a blog three times a week and then get sick. Sorry but I was down and out with a cold/flu. A real bummer with this great spring weather.
We were going to talk about the price volatility index and the price appreciation index. I could give you the long technical explanation but I really do not want to put you to sleep. Believe me it would. If you want the technical explanation drop me an email and I will send it to you. Suffice to say that they are indexes calculated from recent data (from two previous quarters to five years) to predict how prices will react in the near term future (two years out). The predictions for the Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA are good. They show no disasters on the horizon. Price acceleration shows some signs of slowing but the good news is that price volatility is very close to stable. No wild downward price crashes similar to what has happened in Florida, California and Arizona are expected.
So what is keeping people from buying? They only thing I can think of is gas prices, the news media, fear itself and of course credit scores below 620. Interest rates are experiencing the normal weekly up and down swings but are still very low. FHA is offering some great programs for buyers with minimal down payments. They are very good deals with low interest rates. And if you have a credit score below 620 those problems can be addressed also. Just drop me an email if you would like to know more about that.
Now that I am well again and have experienced my once-a-year illness I will be getting these out three times a week.
Have a great day.
Ron

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