Hi Everyone,
We are approaching the end of the 1st quarter, and I am anxiously awaiting the full set of real estate and economic data that will give us a good pulse on where we are in the cycle of markets. Before that data gets released and tabulated, I did some additional calculating on my own, because I wanted to see just how we should be pricing our listings, and making our offers NOW for our current buyers and sellers, or for any of you thinking of buying or selling. Since our market stayed relatively stable through the 1st 3 quarters of 2008, I decided to compare the 6 month periods ending Feb 28, 2008 vs. Feb 28, 2009, so I could see where we stood. Here are the numbers, and a brief interpretation:
The towns included in this market sampling are as follows:
Union County - Berkeley Heights, Cranford, Westfield, Garwood, Kenilworth, New Providence, Scotch Plains, Fanwood, Summit.
Morris County - Chatham Boro, Chatham Township
Essex County - Millburn/Short Hills
Total Active Listings
Period 1 (last year) - 7772
Period 2 (this year) - 7155
**This is a good sign, as it looks like less people put their homes up for sale, perhaps because if they don't need to sell,. they thought it would be better to wait and see what happens. It shows about a 10% reduction in number of new listings. But.....
Total Closed Sales
Period 1 (last year) - 785
Period 2 (this year) 591
This is a decline of nearly 25% in closed transactions, which put downward pressure on pricing, especially in the 4th quarter of 2008. Since the decline in closed sales outpaced the decline in new listings, this resulted in more unsold inventory, thus more supply, which translates to lower prices.
Average Sales Price (total for all towns)
Period 1 (last year) - $742,918
Period 2 (this year) - $683,413
This is an average sales price decline of 8%, which mostly occured in a very short period of time, since prices held stable through the first 3 quarters of 2008. I suspect that the total decline from these past 2 quarters is somewhere between 8 and 14%, depending upon the town. Homes along the train lines will be closer to the 8-10% decline, and the others more like 12-14%. Homes in the middle price ranges from 600k to 800k showed more of a decline than those under 600k, as jumbo mortgages were more difficult to obtain, and folks trying to upgrade were having difficulty selling their first home. Remember that average sales price is not the best indicator of rate of decline or appreciation, as it does not take into account what is happening in a particular price range.
List Price Versus Sales Price
This is perhaps the most telling statistic that we saw a dramatic market decline, faster than sellers could react. The gap between list price of active listings and those that sold was:
Period 1 - $156,000 on average
Period 2 - $230,000 on average
This means that homes that are not properly priced, need to adjust by an average of 8-10% to come back to last years ratio, which was a more balanced market. This further supports the percentage declines mentioned in the prior stats.
SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN TO YOU????
If you are a seller:
1. If you are currently on the market, and have not adjusted your price in the past 60 days to reflect these numbers, you need to seriously consider an aggressive price adjustment
2. If you are about to put your home on the market, you cannot use comparables that sold before January as an accurate price comparison. if you price in these declines, and list properly, the good news is YOU CAN STILL SELL YOUR HOME IN AN AVERAGE OF 60-70 DAYS OR LESS, and for close to your asking price too! Just DO NOT OVERPRICE!!
3. Be prepared to adjust your price after 4 weeks by at least 2-3% if you are not getting any offers. Waiting to long may cause you to chase the market down and cost you dearly.
If you are a buyer:
1. Spend your time looking at homes that are the best option in your price range, and spend time with your Realtor weekly discussing the numbers, and ask if the homes you are viewing are priced fairly, or overpriced.
2. When making an offer, have your Realtor do a very thorough market analysis for you, and ask how the list price is positioned relative to what it should sell for. DO NOT ASSUME YOU CAN TAKE 10% OFF THE ASKING PRICE IF THE HOME IS ALREADY PRICING IN THE DECLINES I'VE MENTIONED.
3. If the home is priced properly, and getting lots of showings. MAKE A STRONG OFFER. Because there are several homes selling right now with multiple bids, because all of the buyers want the same thing...a quality home at a great price. If the home you want fits that category already, then don't jeopardize your chances of losing it to another buyer, and MAKE A STRONG OFFER. It's still a good deal!!!
4. If the home is OVERPRICED, discuss with your agent what the proper selling range should be, and make an offer that is within that range, no matter how far below the asking price it is. If the home is 10% overpriced, and you can justify an offer in the range you are offering, then go ahead and submit it. The worst they can say is no. Your offer might be the one that helps that seller realize they need to reduce their price, AND THEY MIGHT JUST SELL IT TO YOU instead of reducing it in the MLS.
5. Get fully approved, not just pre-approved for your mortgage. Check with your lender to see if they can take you all the way through the approval process, (except for appraisal), so you can make an offer that is stronger than your competition.
Check back for more town specific updates, and also for those all important 1st quarter sales numbers for our market. Thanks for reading, and may you always have a happy home! www.TeamCarrollNJ.com
Hey everybody! There are some terrific deals out there for you first time buyers. If you want to save a bunch of time and not bounce from website to website only to find incomplete information, check out this link below.
For a complete list of homes (Including Property Addresses!!!!) along the NYC Train Line in these and other great NJ Towns log onto:
http://www.NJAreaRealEstate.com
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908-898-0800
Melanie Root from Roots Home Inspection Wanted me to forward this to all of my clients who might be considering buying a home.
Roots home inspection consistently delivers quality service at a reasonable price. We highly recommend them to all of our clients
Radon is a natural, odorless, colorless gas that comes from the ground. If you have a basement it is recommended that you test for radon. Once radon gas makes contact with open air it dissipates and is no longer at harmful concentrations
•- NJ & US EPA set an acceptable radon level at 4.0 PCI/L.
•- Standard compliance is not state law but contract law
•- Radon levels may fluctuate i.e. (from purchase to sale)
•- Severe weather conditions can spike radon results
•- Concentrations generally diminish above ground (ie 1st & 2nd floors).
•- A house can be opened & aired out before testing, but must be
be closed at least 12 hours before the start of the test.
•- 0 pCi/L is not common; most basements will have some level of radon.
Roots Home Inspections is fully licensed to perform radon testing. We offer radon testing at a fraction of the price when packaged with an inspection. For more info, radon maps & links to EPA visit http://www.rootshomeinspection.com/Radon.htm
Radon is a very fixable problem. For information on installation of radon venting systems contact Keith Baicker of Radiation Data at (609) 466-4300 or keith@radon-test.com
Here are the raw numbers for New Providence NJ for the 2 month period from December 1 through January 31. Later this week, I will be posting the 4th quarter numbers and comparing that quarter to the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter from a year ago, so you can see where are market is, and maybe even where it is going.
Here is the data for those 2 months:
Closed Sales: 17
Avg. Sales Price: $649,290
Avg. Final List Price: $678,340
List to Sale Price Ratio: 95.8%
Avg. Days on Market: 83
Check back for more numbers soon for other towns, and for the quarterly reports and comparisons! Thanks for reading. Feel free to email, comment, or call with questions.
Here are the raw numbers for Berkeley Heights NJ for the 2 month period from December 1 through January 31. Later this week, I will be posting the 4th quarter numbers and comparing that quarter to the 3rd quarter and the 4th quarter from a year ago, so you can see where are market is, and maybe even where it is going.
Here is the data for those 2 months:
Closed Sales: 17
Avg. Sales Price: $493,856
Avg. Final List Price: $522,211
List to Sale Price Ratio: 94.5% (this is as low as I've seen this number in a while, indicating a very sharp decline in home prices in the 4th quarter, like I shared in prior blogs)
Avg. Days on Market: 78
Check back for more numbers soon for other towns, and for the quarterly reports and comparisons! Thanks for reading. Feel free to email, comment, or call with questions.
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Team Carroll - We specialize in Cranford, Westfield NJ and surrounding areas as THE local experts on the Cranford and Westfield NJ Real Estate Market. Certified Distressed Property Experts (CDPE)
As a resident of Westfield, NJ, I pride myself on being the local specialist for my neighbors, friends, and new clients in the Cranford, Westfield, Scotch Plains Area. I am a former public school teacher in the Union County area, and the skills I gained as a teacher help me tremendously as a Real Estate Agent.
I believe in providing my clients with as much information as possible. Whether through e-mail searches, online market analyses, or searching the MLS through my website, I believe it is important to give my customers the type of service I would expect from a real estate agent.
I always want to treat people with kindness, courtesy, and respect. By selecting me as your Realtor, I am confident that you will feel as if your needs are my number one priority.
Visit my homepage at http://www.TeamCarrollNJ.com to view properties, and other great free services that I provide for my clients.
If you are looking for a home in Berkeley Heights, Cranford, or surrounding areas, you can receive automatic real estate listing updates by e-mail by logging onto http://www.NjAreaRealEstate.com
Free Comparative Market Analysis by e-mail at: http://www.UnionCountyHomePricing.com
Selling your home in Cranford, NJ? Logon to http://www.Cranfordhomesellers.com for helpful tips to prepare your home for sale.
Sean is a Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE). We are passionate about helping homeowners AVOID the devastating consequences of foreclosure.
What Is a CDPE?
The Developers of the Certified Distressed Property Expert Designation (CDPE) believe that in almost all cases the best person for a homeowner in distress to speak with is a well informed Licensed Realtor® that has the tools needed to help that homeowner find the best solution for their situation.
Foreclosure is a devastating financial and emotional process for a homeowner to go through, and in many cases they do so alone and without help of any kind.
An Agent who has earned the CDPE Designation has dedicated their time and effort to understanding the issues distressed homeowners are dealing with. The CDPE Professional is an agent who understands the full range of solutions and is ready to help.
While experiencing financial distress is difficult for any family, the process of finding a real estate professional shouldn't be, Selecting a CDPE agent ensures you are dealing with a professional ready to address your needs.
What Makes Team Carroll the Best Choice for You?
Realtor Code of Ethics
Call Sean Carroll today for all of your real estate needs for Cranford, Westfield, Scotch Plains NJ and surrounding areas.
We just wanted to extend our sincere gratitude to you for all of your efforts and hard work that went into finding us our first home. You were relentless and never lost hope that we would find the right place, even when we thought it was just not meant to be. We cannot thank you enough for all of your support and willingness to be there throughout the entire arduous process. All things considered, we believe that it was you that made it a positive experience for us in the end. We just want you to know that you will be the first person we think of to recommend if any of our friends/family need a realtor! And of course, it goes without saying that we plan to use you for any of our future real estate endeavors. - Erin and Vincent B - Hillsborough, NJ
Keith and I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for your outstanding support! Throughout the entire house-buying process we have been impressed with your thoroughness, kindness, honesty, knowledge and willingness to go the extra mile on our behalf.
You offered us an objective viewpoint on each house we toured, thereby helping us with our decisions. Furthermore, we were consistently impressed by your willingness to research our questions and concerns without hesitation.
Your generosity didn't stop there, you also took it upon yourself to take and send us digital pictures of homes we were interested in when we could not make it into town.
We really appreciated how comfortable you made us feel during the whole process. You were expedient in returning our calls, searching for properties, and setting up tours.
In finalizing all the detailed work involved in closing the deal and completing the contracts, you were very helpful and were on top of all closing requirements.
It has truly been a pleasure working with you and we can not thank you enough for all of your effort and hard work.
We will recommend you to anyone looking for a highly effective and reliable real estate
agent. Please do not hesitate to use Keith and me as a reference; we can be contacted anytime!
Best Regards, Keith and Yvonne - Red Bank, NJ
We had seen almost 60 houses when we found Sean. He introduced us to Cranford and showed us all the houses we wanted to see. He was patient, kid friendly and worked diligently for us right up to and after the closing. We still keep in touch with Sean and he is still answering questions and supplying us with info a new home owner needs. - Amy and Rich I. - Cranford, NJ
Just want to wish you a Happy New Year and to tell you how much I appreciate receiving the information you send. You are hardworking and industrious and I hope your earnings reflect this. If I were a business owner, I would like to have only people like you working for me. - Carol G in Summit NJ
You were definitely worth every penny! You really understood me, and what I needed, and I could have never sold my home without you! - Sherry R. in Berkeley Heights, NJ
I would like to express my gratitude and my wife's for all your efforts and patience in helping us along in the process of finding a house that met our needs. Your performance as negotiator was admirable, thereby bringing the other side to accept our offer, not once but twice.
Your opinions and knowledge of the real estate business contributed in grand measure to make the whole process a smooth and palatable experience.
It was pleasant to always find you available with timely communication and updates either by phone or
e-mail. We would certainly recommend you to our friends as the
best buying negotiator and agent that we know.
Best regards,
Jaime and Dennys R. - Rahway, NJ
My husband and I were in the market for a new house so I decided to do some research on line. We had used the same realtor on previous occasions but I felt we needed someone with a bit more enthusiasm for the job. I was surfing the internet when I came across Sean Carroll's advertisement and decided to give him a call.
I was not expecting anything as I am the type of person that prefers to have a recommendation before hiring someone. Not only did Sean promptly return my call but he quickly arranged to meet my husband and me at our house to discuss every aspect of the buying and selling process. Sean stayed for over two hours, answering every question that we had. He never once indicated that we were taking up too much of his time. To the contrary, he made sure that every query we had was answered to our satisfaction before he left. My husband and I decided there and then to hire him as our realtor and it was one of the best decisions we made.
Not only is Sean extremely efficient, he is very enthusiastic about his job, reliable, honest and trustworthy. He never once showed us a home that was out of our budget or out of our desired target area to live. He knew exactly what we wanted and didn't stop looking until he found it. Even when things got a little tense with the sellers of our new home, he was there to smooth things over and to ensure that not only were we happy but the seller also.
In the end the transition from our previous home to our dream home was very smooth and that is all thanks to Sean. In fact at the closing the seller's attorney commented that we had an excellent realtor. He said usually in these situations realtors and attorneys do not get on but that Sean was the exception. He truly went above and beyond what we came to expect from a realtor. I have absolutely no hesitation in recommending Sean Carroll as a realtor.
Carmel Broderick & Mark McAvey - Cranford, NJ
You are an excellent example to follow in business. You follow up is commendable. You attention to your customer and every detail of the transaction is flawless. Working with you motivates me in my business. I would feel totally confident recommending you to my clients, associates and friends. Well done!
Melanie R. - Scotch Plains, NJ
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