Sarasota Market Updated for November 1, 2011

The Sarasota Real Estate Market is showing definite signs that the bottom may be in the rear view mirror. The Sarasota Association of REALTORS is reporting an 18.4% increase in sales for October for 2011 vs. 2010. I have always kept my own numbers and this is what I see.

My numbers are somewhat higher all around and it may be becasue I include all of Sarasota County. Being out in the trenches, I see areas where homes are hard to come by and it is not unusual to see multiple offers on well-priced homes. At the same time, there are neighborhoods that seem to be stuck with high levels of short sales and are not yet seeing the upward trend the overall market enjoys.

The overall market this year seems to follow the trend of last year but a higher price point. My numbers show a 3.6% increase in units sold year to date compared to last year. The average sales price is also up 5.6% from $116.74 to $123.38 per square foot. The average sales price is up an impressive 10% from 205,503 to 226,598.

Since our busy season is just beginning, I decided to dig a little deeper into the numbers and looked several areas to see who the winners are and who is lagging behind. There has always been this assumption in this market that the high end and waterfront communities lead the rest of the market. That is exactly what I found. The lagging communities may be the opportunity for the best deals right now. After all, the larger water front homes are being purchased by fairly sophisticated buyers which I would interpret to be a signal that this market is at the bottom and moving back to a positive trend.

Bird Key is showing a 50% increase in units sold with an 11% increase in average sales price. Longboat Key units sold are up 26% with flat pricing, Siesta Key Condo sales are up 18% with a lower average sales price although the average sales price per square foot decreased by half, which leads me to believe the rate of decrease, is slowing.

Moving off the water, I found Gulf Gate units are up slightly and prices are down slightly. Palm Aire is showing across the board single digit increases.

Downtown Sarasota condos sales are down year over year. Colonial Oaks is showing 17 sold units this year vs. 27 from last year; a 37% decrease. What is also interesting here is that 9 of the 12 properties under contract are short sales. If they were to sell, the subdivision would be 2 ahead of last year. Again, an area that is down right now could be the opportunity to buy right now.

Buyers should also take into account interest rates are down below 4% in many cases and inventory is as low as it has been for 10 years as reported by SAR. A 4% interest rate payment on $100,000 for 30 years is $477.42/mo. At 5%, the monthly payment is $536.82. You would not be paying 1% more if the rates go back up to 5%, you would increase your payment by 12%.

Search Sarasota and the surrounding counties the way you want to without any obligation to buy.

John Woodward
Broker/Owner
Sarasota Real Estate Group
www.SarasotaOne.com
john@johnwoodward.com

April 29, 2011 Sarasota, FL - Every once and a while I run an MLS search to help me understand where the market is headed. For those who know me, I tend to be a bit of a pessimist about all of the media hype regarding the market is coming back and happy days are here again. I am into my own facts as I find them and see them. That being said...

According to the MLS, Sarasota county has 6112 active residential properties (including single family, condos etc). Of these, 205 are bank owned (REO). Yes, just 3% of the active properties are foreclosure/REO properties. 864 are short sales.

The REO number is consistent with the fact JP Morgan and Bank of Amerika (pun intended) have yet file hardly (less than 10) any foreclosures this year according to the clerk of court. My guess is, that little paper work "problem" from the end of last year is a bigger problem then banks want us to know. Courts are wising up to document manufacturers and those who would go to court making stuff up to get the foreclosures through. It probably won't work and if banks push foreclosures through with more bogus paperwork. Chances are courts are going to be even harder to BS their way through. We'll have to see how this one plays out.

Only 14% of the active properties are short sales. 1226 of the 2542 pending properties are short sales (about half). Over the past 6 months, 4643 properties have closed and of those settled properties, only 759 of those (or 16.3%) are short sales. 1021 are foreclosures (22%). I know you can't really run a straight line over these numbers because short sales can take 2,4,8,12 months or even more. If 50% of the pendings are short sales and only 16% of the total sales are short sales, then I think it safe to assume you have about an 8% chance of closing short sale. I have my own war stories and the advertised number back a year or 2 ago was only 20% of the short sales ever close. I still contend, why would anyone want to torture themselves with a short sale as a general rule.

82% of the active inventory is still just someone wanting to sell and someone wanting to buy with no bank intervention on the seller's side. 2863 of the sales over the past 6 months are normal sales (62%), followed by foreclosure homes with 22% followed by the 16% being short sales. Banks are not filing foreclosures so that side of the inventory equation in not being replenished. There are only 205 active homes on the market that are bank/REO. So much for wanting to get into the REO business.

I think we have the a strong foundation for a bottom based on the numbers I see today. Yea, I know the dollar could fall, gas could hit $6.00 and on and on. We always have those factors. For those thinking the market has more to go down, even my pessimist self has to say, don't bet on it.

John Woodward, GRI, CRS, SFR
Broker/Owner
Sarasota Real Estate Group
941-922-8400

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