Scott Elwell

First and foremost, I want to thank all of my clients for helping make 2011 a great year. I closed on 20 houses (13 sales, 7 rentals) in 2011, which was is my best year so far and owe it all to my wonderful clients. I enjoyed working with everyone and appreciate the business. I also want to thank the many people who referred business to me. The referral business is a huge part of my pipeline and I am grateful for every lead sent to me.

Looking back on 2011, I am pleased to say that the Greenwich Real Estate market held up well. I am not going to sugarcoat it and tell you that it was a banner year and that I only see signs of the market improving from here on out. When viewed from a macro-level, 2011 was still a very slow year. We did not see the level of transactions that we had a couple years ago and we might never again. As I mentioned in a previous blog/email, I think we might be witnessing the beginning of the new “normal” in real estate movement.

In Greenwich, CT, I feel that the baseline level of transactions should be roughly around 625 houses sold per year. This is not the 750+ that we saw in 2007, but also higher than what we have witnessed in the past two years. I am a strong believer that we are bouncing along the floor of our pricing, but also admit that I do not know when we will start to see price increases. I am confident in recommending a purchase (for investment purposes) with a 5+ year horizon, but have a hard time confidently supporting shorter horizons. I see several factors that continue to affect the Greenwich (as well as national) market and keep it from a proper level of equilibrium/harmony.

Obviously the biggest factor keeping the Greenwich CT Real Estate market out of sync is the questionable economy. As discussed in several previous blogs, residential real estate is almost entirely priced upon perception, so if anything were to affect perception and confidence the residential real estate market takes a hit. Certain areas of residential real estate are hit harder than others. For one, the second home market has been hit much harder than the primary home market. This is obviously because those who need money will unload their vacation homes before their primary residence’s. Another factor that we are starting to see is that second and third tier markets are taking a harder hit than first tier markets as those who have money are starting to realize they can afford to upgrade to the better location (flight to quality). Greenwich is fortunately on the right side of the trade for both of these factors.

I have worked with a lot of clients recently who have said they want to buy in Greenwich because of the low taxes (about 1/3^rd of NY taxes), which is normal, but now I hear more and more clients say that they think they can afford to live in better neighborhoods than they used to look at because the prices have come down. You used to need well north of $1,000,000 to buy a decent first home in Greenwich, but now you can find some great single families in the $700k range, especially in areas of Cos Cob and North Mianus, and you can find apartments in the $200-$300k range all through town.

This doesn’t mean that all levels of real estate in Greenwich are lowering dramatically in price, it just means that there are many affordable areas of town. On the high-end we have still seen some major trades and there are some fantastic homes on the market right now in the $10 to $20m range, which once commanded prices starting with a “3” or even “4”.

I find myself fortunate to work in a town with such diversity in product. Covering over 65 square miles and housing a population of over 60,000 people, Greenwich has a lot to offer. I really consider it 4 neighboring towns that include Old Greenwich, Riverside, Cos Cob and downtown Greenwich, but within those towns we have several communities including Glenville, Byram, North Mianus and Pemberwick to name a few. I’ve been able to work $1,500 rentals and $23 million estate sales, which is what I find to be so much fun about the job.

If you know of anyone who is looking at the Greenwich (or Rye, I closed on 4 houses in Rye last year!) area and are in need of some help, I’d really appreciate it if you pass on my name.

Sincerely,

Scott

Scott Elwell
Real Estate Agent – MBA- GreenwichCT.com
William Raveis Real Estate
45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830
Mobile: 203.940.0444 : Email: scott@elwell.com

Many people forget how affordable Greenwich, CT can be and forget all about Cos Cob, CT. Cos Cobis a part of Greenwich, CT and a fantastic place to live. There have been many great homes to sell in Cos Cob in the past year at under $1 million. If you are interested in learning more about Cos Cob CT Real Estate please click on my links or read up on some recent posts that I have made including:

Greenwich real estate sales including Cos Cob in October 2011

Cos Cob CT Real Estate November 2011

Interesting activity in Cos Cob

So after a ton of work, time, effort, money, I have just launched my re-built website GreenwichCT.com!

I've spent countless hours working on the text and background info.

What do you think?

I don’t understand why some realtors always sell the same story. “This is a great time to sell.” “This is a great time to buy.” It makes no sense to me how someone could be pushing the same line for the past 5 years, as if the market hasn’t changed at all. Mary Meeker (during the internet bubble) comes to mind… as does a broken record. If we were selling an item that we, or our company, possessed (like a car, clothing, computer, whatever) I might be able understand how the message could always stay the same. The intrinsic difference here is that we aren’t really selling anything. We are advising our clients on HOW to best buy or sell something. We are paid on the transaction, not the increase or decrease in value. If values go up in a town, but transactions decrease then guess what, the realtors in that town (on an aggregate) will make less money – vice versa.

For this reason, I am a strong believer that my true job is to provide my insight on a market and NOT to push my clients to do anything. If it is a good time for them to buy or sell then great, but it does my clients a complete disservice to be yelling the same thing (“Great time to buy/sell”) over and over again. If it were a great time to buy, then wouldn’t it be a bad time to sell? The story is much more complex than any one-line sales pitch and requires some serious research catered to each individual client. I’m in this game for the long haul and, just like the market I want my message to adjust as the market does. As far as I see it, my job is to provide information and insight, and that is what I’m trying to do with these emails. If you would like to talk in more detail (or know a referral that might) please feel free to contact me at any point.

Now back to my insight on the Greenwich real estate market.



If you have read the press (Greenwich Time, Post, etc..) or have spoken to nearly any realtor in town, you have no doubt heard news that the Greenwich market is “heating” up. For once, I’m going to agree with what everyone is saying. Sales and inventory numbers are both growing. This activity is real, but has snuck up on me. Every morning I look at the daily hot sheet to see what has traded, dropped in price and is newly listed. Over the past month this sheet has steadily become more active, but never really screamed “hot market” to me. When the monthly numbers came out I was shocked. I knew our sales numbers would be high, but I hadn’t realized how much the inventory had grown over the past month.


Last month I wrote about a single family market that had 628 homes listed and now were are looking at a market that has 712 homes listed. This is a huge jump and got me thinking. Why did the inventory number rise so much and why had I not noticed? Spring markets always bring more listings (chart makes this pretty obvious), but this movement up seemed to be more than anticipated. After a lot of digging I think I figured it out.
You see, in addition to the natural cyclical behavior of the spring market, there are many new (for sale) listings, which were rented over the past year. I believe that we are witnessing an additional influx of properties for sale that were rented out last year because they couldn’t sell. Those leases all expire in the summer (b/c of the school calendar) and now allow for the sellers to start listing/showing the property.

Normally I would take the position that any non-cyclical influx of properties could cause problems, but I think this jump in inventory is healthy. I don’t know of a town (I have sold properties from Rye, NY to Westport, CT) in Fairchester (Fairfield & Westchester) that has a true excess of inventory right now. There are tons of buyers our there that have been searching for ages and are waiting for the right listing.



When you look at the year to date numbers compared with 2010, the inventory and sales numbers aren’t that exciting. This helps to show how cyclical our business is. What is interesting to me is the drop in Market Time for Inventory. If I’m right, after April this spread (currently at 35.5%) will only increase. It’s too early to tell if this new bump in behavior in Greenwich is cyclical or a real shift in the market, or most likely a mix. Add in the fact that interest rates are only going up and we should see even more activity over the next couple months as those buyers who have been waiting don’t want to miss the market (real estate and rate) and those owners who have been waiting to sell don’t want to miss the buyers.

I apologize for making this into a long email, but I have lots to say. I could go on and on. One day I’ll figure out the perfect harmony between blogging and putting everything into my monthly email. In the coming months I hope to start talking more about the differences and similarities I see between Rye, NY and Greenwich, CT. As an agent that covers both towns, I’ve been having a lot of fun helping clients weigh the pluses and minuses of each town.

PLEASE feel free to email me if you want to talk more and please feel free to send this to anyone who might be interested. I make a living off of referrals, so I obviously appreciate them.

Regards,

Scott




Scott P. Elwell
Founder/Real Estate CEO - GreenwichCT.com
Al Filippone Associates @ William Raveis
45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830
Cell: 203.940.0444
scott@elwell.com

My Real Estate @ ScottElwell.com
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