Are you a User or an Investor? There are two main types of commercial customers:
1. The Users who are seeking a property that will house their business. Their main concerns are location, visibility and the prestige that will accompany a particular property or location. Buying decisions will be affected by the buildings' age, or newness of the property, the neighborhood, safety for staff, security, lighting, office size, window placements, and primarily whether the property enhances business opportunities. Their buying decisions are largely focused on the question "'What's in it for my business" and whether this property will offer the opportunity for growth without excessive increases in overhead costs.
2. The Investors who are motivated by three slightly different factors of influence; What is the rate of return they can expect to receive on their capital investment? How secure is the rate of return, is it guaranteed, or reliable? What are the risks or chance of losing the investment? And most importantly what is the potential for capital growth? Investors often have a desired rate of return established prior to beginning their property search. While attractive settings and decors may be desirable, they are not at the top of the list for Investors.
A User may be 'Buying an Income Dream', whereas an Investor is 'Buying an Income Stream'
Winnipeg, Manitoba Outlook for 2009
Winnipeg remains one of the hottest markets in the country for residential real estate, reporting record setting sales for the first nine months of the year.
The market, however, pulled back in the fourth quarter due to rising economic concerns. As a result, an estimated 12,900 homes are expected to change hands in Winnipeg by year-end, a modest decrease from peak levels logged in 2007.
Housing inventory was relatively tight through 2008. With a limited supply of listings for most of the year, values smashed all previous records with the average price up 22 per cent over one year ago from $170,502 to $207,882. Many purchasers experienced frustration with bidding wars but there were fewer than in 2007.
Multiple offers are still occurring and will continue in isolated situations but not nearly as frequently.
Inventory has increased in the last quarter and what was previously a seller's market has become more balanced. As a result, average time on market required to sell a home will increase from 29 days in 2008, to 35 days or more in 2009.
Spurred by move-up buyers looking for bigger homes and better amenities, the most active price range has been in the mid-range from $160,000 to $199,000. First-timers, including new immigrants and children of baby boomers, fuelled activity in the $130,000 to $159,000 range. With even greater demand from retirees, the condominium market is playing a bigger role than ever before. New buildings geared to retirees are underway in The Forks and on Waterfront Drive.
More affordable warehouse conversions are also springing up, thanks to incentives from the city to invigorate the downtown core. Luxury homes were also coveted in 2008, with a record number of $1million+ homes changing hands. Despite consumer uncertainty created by volatility in the stock markets and the global economic crisis, Winnipeg's local economy remains healthy. New home construction is expected to continue at a breakneck pace with 5,200 new units projected. Net migration will be a dominant factor driving demand. International migration will be among the highest levels on record, owing to Manitoba's successful Provincial Nominee Program. With one of the best employment rates in Canada, the loss of migrants from Manitoba to other provinces will also remain
low by historical standards. A robust labour market continues to be both a sign and source of vigour for the Manitoba economy. The province is benefiting from a softening Canadian dollar and high commodity prices for grains and base metals supporting provincial income growth.
Th e market for 2009 will be balanced as slow, steady growth continues. Inventory levels are expected to
increase by 10-to-15 per cent over 2008. Values will remain stable with minimal increases. The average
selling price is forecast to appreciate two per cent to $212,000 by year-end. The number of homes due to change hands is forecast to match 2008 levels.
Remax Western Canada Hosing Outlook 2009
Are you a User or an Investor? There are two main types of commercial customers:
1. The Users who are seeking a property that will house their business. Their main concerns are location, visibility and the prestige that will accompany a particular property or location. Buying decisions will be affected by the buildings' age, or newness of the property, the neighborhood, safety for staff, security, lighting, office size, window placements, and primarily whether the property enhances business opportunities. Their buying decisions are largely focused on the question "'What's in it for my business" and whether this property will offer the opportunity for growth without excessive increases in overhead costs.
2. The Investors who are motivated by three slightly different factors of influence; What is the rate of return they can expect to receive on their capital investment? How secure is the rate of return, is it guaranteed, or reliable? What are the risks or chance of losing the investment? And most importantly what is the potential for capital growth? Investors often have a desired rate of return established prior to beginning their property search. While attractive settings and decors may be desirable, they are not at the top of the list for Investors.
A User may be 'Buying an Income Dream', whereas an Investor is 'Buying an Income Stream'
Threat of global recession to hinder home sales in major Canadian housing markets in 2008 and 2009, says RE/MAX
Global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on residential real estate activity in most major Canadian centres during the latter half of 2008. Although the forecast for 2009 promises more of the same, most markets are expected to weather the storm, says RE/MAX.
Housing market performance will clearly be contingent on economic performance at a local, provincial, and national level in 2009. Issues affecting the overall economy are impacting housing markets across the country and the situation is not expected to be remedied until consumer confidence is restored. If inventory levels remain stable, pent-up demand kicks into gear, and lower interest rates stimulate home-buying activity, we could see a bounce back as early as spring.
The RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook for 2009 examined residential real estate trends in 22 markets across the country and found that average price held up remarkably well in 2008, despite 13 centres reporting double-digit declines in home sales. Solid gains earlier in the year likely served to prop-up housing values at year-end. The prognosis for housing activity in the first six to nine months of 2009 is somewhat static, given continued volatility in financial markets and the threat of recession, but as stability returns, housing markets are expected to recover.
Nationally, 440,000 homes are expected to change hands in 2008, down 15 per cent from record 2007 levels. Canadian housing values are expected to hover at $300,000, a nominal three per cent decline from last year's historic peak. By year-end 2009, unit sales should match 2008 levels, while average price is forecast to fall another two per cent to $293,000.
Major markets are evenly split in terms of housing performance in 2009, with 11 centres forecast to match or exceed 2008 home sales and 11 expected to slide from 2008 levels. The highest percentage increase in unit sales is anticipated in Saskatoon, where the number of homes sold is forecast to climb three per cent in 2009. Housing values are expected to hold the line in 2009, with St. John's, Montreal, Kingston, London, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Regina posting modest gains in average price in 2009.
Canada's real estate environment is considerably more complex than it has been in recent years. The landscape is definitely changing -- with most markets shifting into either balanced or buyer's territory. The shut out is over. Sellers no longer rule the roost. Opportunities exist for purchasers like never before, including lower interest rates, greater inventory levels, the luxury of time to make decisions, and the upper-hand at the negotiating table. Motivated vendors will need to take note of the new mindset and set their prices accordingly.
Canadian sellers are slowly adjusting to new realities. For most markets, 2008 started in balanced territory and moved into buyer's market conditions during the latter half of 2008. The year ahead will prove challenging, especially for vendors.
While the economy will dictate real estate performance next year, it's important to remember that demand still exists in the marketplace. In the midst of stock market turmoil, sold signs continue to appear on lawns across the country. With affordable lending rates and increased selection, first-time and move-up buyers with good credit may choose to play their investment strategy safe and purchase a home. The comfort of a tangible investment like real estate goes a long way in tough times.
RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998) Inc. Housing Market Outlook 2009 Report, issued
December 3, 2008.
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Residential Unit Sales by Market 2004-2009 |
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|
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|
Market |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008* |
% |
2009** |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
British Columbia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Vancouver |
37,972 |
42,222 |
36,479 |
38,978 |
26,000 |
-33 |
26,000 |
0 |
|
Victoria |
7,685 |
7,970 |
7,500 |
8,403 |
6,500 |
-23 |
5,800 |
-11 |
|
Kelowna |
5,153 |
6,070 |
5,459 |
6,192 |
3,900 |
-37 |
3,510 |
-10 |
|
Alberta |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Edmonton |
17,652 |
18,634 |
21,984 |
20,427 |
18,900 |
-8 |
18,900 |
0 |
|
Calgary |
26,511 |
31,569 |
33,027 |
32,176 |
22,500 |
-30 |
23,000 |
2 |
|
Saskatchewan |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regina |
2,785 |
2,730 |
2,953 |
3,957 |
3,450 |
-13 |
3,450 |
0 |
|
Saskatoon |
2,999 |
3,246 |
3,430 |
4,446 |
3,600 |
-19 |
3,700 |
3 |
|
Manitoba |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Winnipeg*** |
11,447 |
12,087 |
12,304 |
13,079 |
12,900 |
-1 |
12,900 |
0 |
|
Ontario |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hamilton-Burlington |
13,176 |
13,565 |
13,059 |
13,866 |
12,200 |
-12 |
11,500 |
-6 |
|
Kitchener-Waterloo |
5,931 |
6,147 |
6,115 |
7,031 |
6,600 |
-6 |
6,000 |
-9 |
|
London-St. Thomas |
9,238 |
9,133 |
9,234 |
9,686 |
9,000 |
-7 |
9,000 |
0 |
|
Ottawa |
13,158 |
13,099 |
13,783 |
14,579 |
13,900 |
-5 |
13,500 |
-3 |
|
Sudbury |
2,180 |
2,477 |
2,519 |
2,632 |
2,400 |
-9 |
2,400 |
0 |
|
Toronto |
83,501 |
84,145 |
83,084 |
93,193 |
79,000 |
-15 |
75,000 |
-5 |
|
Barrie and District |
4,657 |
4,675 |
4,397 |
5,017 |
4,250 |
-15 |
4,250 |
0 |
|
St. Catharines |
3,130 |
3,217 |
3,214 |
3,258 |
2,900 |
-11 |
2,900 |
0 |
|
Kingston |
3,764 |
3,464 |
3,517 |
3,725 |
3,550 |
-5 |
3,550 |
0 |
|
Quebec |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Montreal |
48,564 |
49,506 |
50,106 |
56,151 |
48,000 |
-14 |
43,000 |
-11 |
|
New Brunswick |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Saint John |
1,612 |
1,901 |
1,852 |
2,253 |
2,250 |
0 |
2,200 |
-2 |
|
Nova Scotia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Halifax-Dartmouth |
5,516 |
6,698 |
6,462 |
7,261 |
6,500 |
-10 |
6,300 |
-3 |
|
PEI |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charlottetown |
1,500 |
1,449 |
1,492 |
1,769 |
1,450 |
-18 |
1,400 |
-4 |
|
Newfoundland and Labrador |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
St. John's |
3,203 |
3,211 |
3,537 |
4,471 |
4,950 |
11 |
4,700 |
-5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NATIONAL |
460,790 |
483,789 |
484,027 |
520,747 |
440,000 |
-15 |
440,000 |
0 |
|
* Estimate **Forecast ***Total MLS |
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Source: CREA, OMREB, TREB, WREB,Sudbury Real Estate Board, Ottawa Real Estate Board, RE/MAX |
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Commercial Real Estate is divided into 3 distinct groups: Since the turn of the century the letters IC&I or more recently ICI has been the acronym used when referring to industrial, commercial and investment real estate. Although this phrase continues to be used within the industry, for naming of associations, and/or as website URLs - the singular word Commercial has now replaced IC&I as a generic reference to all specialty fields.
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