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U.S. mortgage rates sank to the lowest level in decades this week, pushed down by the weak economy and the Federal Reserve's move to help lift the recovery by purchasing government debt.
Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac says the average rate for 30-year fixed loans this week was 4.44 percent, down from 4.49 percent last week. That's the lowest since Freddie Mac began tracking rates in 1971.
The average rate on the 15-year fixed loan dropped to 3.92 percent, down from 3.95 percent last week and the lowest on record.
Rates have fallen since spring and the government's July jobs report has investors worried about the United States slipping back into recession. They are shifting more money into the safety of Treasury bonds, lowering their yields. Mortgage rates tend to track those yields.
And the Federal Reserve is pushing those yields down even further. The central bank said Tuesday it would buy Treasurys to help aid the recovery, using the proceeds from debt and mortgage-backed securities it bought from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
That move alone will not be enough to push average rates down to 4 percent, said Bob Walters, chief economist at Quicken Loans. But rates that low are still a possibility if the economic outlook worsens even further. If investors became convinced that a renewed recession is likely, they would move even more money away from stocks and into bonds and mortgage debt. That would send rates down further.
"The silver lining to a bad economy is that interest fall," Walters said. "If you can lower your debt burden by refinancing, that's great."
Low rates have failed to spark home sales, which have plummeted this summer as the economy remains weak and credit standards stay tight. Applications to refinance home loans have grown but remain well short of a massive refinancing boom.
Overall home loan applications rose only 0.6 percent last week from a week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
To calculate the national average, Freddie Mac collects mortgage rates on Monday through Wednesday of each week from lenders around the country. Rates often fluctuate significantly, even within a given day.
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I just heard that FHA is changing the upfront MI fee to 1% from 2.25% but the monthly MI fee is going up from .55 to .90 with adjusting upto 1.55% in the future. If anybody has more detail that would be great on these changes since its so close to the change. PLease make a comment if you know anything about this
The rumors are continuing to grow louder that the Obama administration is planning to announce a massive stimulus via the housing market later this month. Earlier this week, the word was that the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might subsidize mortgage refinancing at below-market interest rates. But today, a possibility is being talked about where the GSEs instead (or maybe also) forgive the principal on the underwater mortgages they own or guarantee. James Pethokoukis of Reuters suggests that this could amount to as much as $800 billion. This would be such a huge move that it's hard to wrap your head around it.
First, this could really happen. The Treasury has unlimited discretion to plow as much money as it pleases into Fannie and Freddie. So adding several hundred billion dollars to the $150 billion already provided through their bailout would be as easy as the stroke of a pen. Moreover, the government's other foreclosure efforts, particularly the HAMP program, have had lackluster success. This would provide the principal reductions that many progressives have been calling for to make for more effective modifications -- but even for those who aren't in danger of foreclosure.
Consequently, it would act as a stimulus. Let's say your mortgage was based on original principal of $250,000. At 6% fixed interest, that would make your payment around $1500. But let's say the housing bubble dropped your property value by 30%, so the home is only worth $175,000. Now, let's say that you had paid off $25,000. That leaves $50,000 in principal that the GSEs could potentially write down. Suddenly, your payment would drop to as low as $1,050. What would you do with that extra $450 per month? The Obama administration would hope that you spend it!
This would effectively transfer wealth from all taxpayers to middle class homeowners, since it would only benefit those who have mortgages with the GSEs. The upper class generally has either very large ("jumbo) mortgages that don't qualify for Fannie and Freddie's backing or they own their home outright. Poorer Americans, however, don't have mortgages at all -- they rent. So they wouldn't benefit either.
Whether or not this proposal would successfully stimulate the economy depends on the psychology of those lucky homeowners. We have seen recently that saving has been quite high. So it's certainly conceivable that much or most of that mortgage payment reduction would be saved or used to pay down other debt. If the recipients spent it, however, then it would stimulate the economy.
Moreover, the logistics are even harder to conceive. How will the government decide how much to reduce each mortgage by? Will there be a standardized lump sum across-the-board? Should it be based on original or current mortgage balance? Will the Treasury differentiate between housing markets that have fallen more than others? Will appraisers need to be involved to ensure that renovations weren't completed that raised the value of the home since the mortgage was signed? It won't be possible to make everybody happy here.
Make no mistake: this is a very controversial idea. Not only would it mostly benefit a specific subset of Americans, but it would also be done in such a way to tiptoe around the usual political process. Of course, considering that it is virtually impossible to pass any more stimulus at this point, this might be the administration's last chance to try to revive the economy before midterm elections. It would be hard to interpret something this drastic as anything other than an act of desperation, however, given all drawbacks of the plan and anger it would create.
Update: Treasury denies that this is being considered, with a spokesperson saying: "The administration is not considering a change in policy in this area." So we'll see what actually happens in the big August conference.
Got to love the govenment?????
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