Glenn Ginsburg - Naples Florida Real Estate

The number of Lis Pendens (the formal notice that starts the foreclosure process) has steadily been declining in the Collier County and Naples area.

In October 2008 was the peak of filings with a total of 946 filings.

The graph shows the number of filings occurring on a monthly basis according to the Collier County Clerk of Courts office. The trend line shows the right leg of a normal bell curve which represents a downward trend in the number of foreclosure actions being filed.

In addition the graph shows the number of certificates of title issued by the county clerk’s office. More properties are continuing to be auctioned at the county courthouse and ownership changing by recording a certificate of title.

The question arises – Is the number of foreclosure actions really declining or is it a temporary decline? Some pundits have stated we can expect to see another flood of foreclosures hit the market. They are impart basing their thoughts on the fact in 2010, 3/1, 5/1, and 7/1 adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s) will be resetting. 2010 is the only calendar year in which 3 different ARM’s are scheduled to reset. Through May 2010, the influx has not occurred. However, the number of property auctions taking place at the courthouse has not shown the downward trend at this time.

There are often discussions about a “shadow inventory”. What is a shadow inventory in real estate?

Definition 1 – Foreclosed but not listed.

Definition 2 – Homes in the foreclosure process as well as delinquent mortgages where foreclosure proceedings are imminent.

Definition 3 – All homes delinquent, short sales not on the market, REOs not on the market, and anything in the foreclosure process.

Definition 4 – All of the above plus modified loans (as they have a large percentage of failing anyway, pay option-arms about to be reset, and lots sitting idle with builders in trouble.

Based upon the graph it does appear a shadow inventory exists. The unanswered question is how large is this inventory? Unknown factors are how many modified loans have been successful, how many short sales have been successful, how many properties are being purchased at auction by individuals rather than the lenders, etc.?

The final observation is – how does this affect the months of inventory?

The condominium market for the Naples real estate area at the start of September 2009 declined down to 4095 units for sale. In the year over year comparison the number of unit declined 580 or about 12 percent from the 4675 condominiums on the market in September 2008.

The September 2009 was also a decline from the August 2009 4248 condominiums on the market. The decline represents a about 3.6 percent reduction.

The composition of various types of possible real estate transactions of the September condos for sale are broken down as follows:
Traditional condos for sale – 3482
Potential short sales – 533
Foreclosed condos – 80

In August the breakdown of condos for sale was as follows:
Traditional sales – 3629
Potential short sale – 542
Foreclosed condos – 77

In the Naples real estate market the month of September has started with a total of 3777 homes for sale. In a year over year comparison the number of homes have declined from 5247 in September 2008. This represent a drop of about 28 percent. The number of homes for sale is taken from the close of business on August 31st.

At the start of August there were a total of 3923 homes for sale. The number of homes for sale has declined 146 homes or approximately 3.7 percent.

The composition of Naples homes for sale is shown by the pie-chart below:

In the month of June a total of 82 condos were placed under awaiting closing in the Bonita Springs area. Of the 82 condos pending sale, 7 condos were foreclosures. This represents approximately 9 percent of the total condos awaiting closing - pended sales. At the beginning of July, 3 condos were active listings for sale or about 1 percent of the 265 condos for sale. Based upon the activity in June there is less than 1 month of condo inventory for sale. Search for foreclosed condos for sale in Bonita Springs.

On July 1st there were 8 Estero foreclosure homes on the market or roughly 3 percent of the total number of active listing with the Estero area.

During the month of June a total of 13 homes offers were presented to either banks, lenders, or REO companies which were accepted, thus pending sale. The number of Estero foreclosures which pended equated to approximately 10 percent of the 109 homes which had offers accepted.

During the month of June a total of 5 foreclosed homes were sold, which represents about 27 percent of 36 homes sold.

Search for foreclosure homes for sale in Estero.