It is certainly true that a single month's numbers should never be looked at in isolation, but today the December 2008 numbers for Orlando housing were released and while they continue to show the trend of slow recovery, the biggest three numbers - inventory, under contract and closed sales - have all shown dramatic improvements over 12 months ago.
It has long been thought that a ballanced market in the Orlando area has meant around 7,000 homes for sale. At its peak, we had more than 26,000 in Orange and Seminole counties and for the past 12 months we have been hovering between 24,000 and 25,000. However in December of 2008, inventory was down by almost 2,000 to 22,524 homes for sale.
Next we must look at how many homes are under contract but not yet closed - future closings if you like. A year ago this number was just over 1,000 homes and has been up as high as 2,000 in the last 12 months. The December 2008 number was 1,871 - UP 848 over the same month in 2007.
Finally actual closed sales is also dramatically up. While the 2008 peak month was June with 1,489, the December 2008 figure of 1,305 represents an increase of almost 300 over the same month in 2007.
These trends are important numbers to watch - especially for those seeking to find the bottom of the market. It is impossible to time the market that well as the only true way to know where bottom WAS is to look back and see it. It is certainly a great time to buy a home if you look at the cost of property and the cost of money right now. If you are looking for a home, then this is probably as good a time as there has been in several years. If you an investor looking to time it right, then certainly there will be no quick flips out there right now.
If you are looking for expert advice in the Orlando area, then look no further. Give me a call on 407 876 8200 or 321 624 3174 or visit www.simonconway.net
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(Copyright © 2008 By Simon L Conway All Rights Reserved.)
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Central Florida real estate market. You can reach me on 407 876 8200. Also visit my web site at www.simonconway.net or www.move2orlando.net
As Christmas approaches, now is the time to think about those who continue to sacrifice to ensure that you get to have the freedom to celebrate and if you are so inclined, to pray to your god.
Last year there was a campaign to send greetings cards to those undergoing treatment at Walter Reed Hospital. That campaign ran into problems when the powers in charge of the facility decided not to pass on cards to servicemen and women without names.
To get around that this year, a website has been created where you can leave your message of gratitude for those heroes to read at their own leisure.
It will take you less than five minutes to do and you will I'm sure put a large smile on the face of someone who might very well be in harms' way right now.
Alternatively they might be recovering from injury and I feel certain that when they read these messages from the rest of us, we will be a small part of lifting their spirits when they are not at home and not with their families.
The website is simple - www.orlandoheroes.com - and I urge you strongly to make the time.
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(Copyright © 2008 By Simon L Conway All Rights Reserved.)
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Central Florida real estate market. You can reach me on 407 876 8200. Also visit my web site at www.simonconway.net or www.move2orlando.net
Now all of this would be OK if it didn't have a direct effect on our pockets, but dire predictions play right into the hands of the insurance companies who just love to raise our rates. And of course higher insurance rates also have a direct effect on housing.
Despite all of this we buy into the garbage year after year after year.
So what's in store for us? The team in Colorado are calling for ten or eleven tropical storms and six hurricanes - three of which will be major ones above Cat 3 with winds in excess of 111 miles an hour.
It is true that the 2008 season was "above average" but Florida in particular was not hit by a major storm. The most damage was done by a tropical storm - Fay - and not a hurricane. Fay produced a lot of water and led to some major flooding.
I'm sure the insurance companies are figuring out just what this prediction will mean for you and me, but you know the rates are going up.
The image is of Katrina and is courtesy of NOAA
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(Copyright © 2008 By Simon L Conway All Rights Reserved.)
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Central Florida real estate market. You can reach me on 407 876 8200. Also visit my web site at www.simonconway.net or www.move2orlando.net
Once upon a time all western governments agreed that the most important thing to a nation's economy was to keep inflation low and under control. And so it is a shock to discover that right now these same nations and their top financial advisers are trying to find ways to create inflation and to avoid something that REALLY scares them - DEFLATION.
Personally I think that deflation gets a bad rap. It isn't simply about falling prices, it is also about printing less money so that money is worth more. What is wrong with that?
If you go down the other road - the one we are on right now - then the amount of money in the system is being increased dramatically and when you print all this money it actually becomes worth less until you get to the point of pre-World War II Germany when people were taking home their wages literally in wheelbarrows.
Perhaps the scariest thing of all is that I'm no economist and I get it. Our political leaders, our financial leaders and even our community organizers seem not to understand this very simply concept. 
Printing money doesn't get you more things - it just takes more of that money (because it is worth less) to acquire the same number of things.
Now while I already said that deflation gets a bad rap, it is important to understand the pitfalls of a deflationary economy to a nation like ours that lives on credit. If we hadn't have forgotten who we are supposed to be and continued to live within our means then there is no downside to deflation, but with the current debt carried by the United States it is certainly an issue.
Seventy percent of our economy is based on consumer spending and deflation actually encourages those with money to hang on to it - because the thing they want will cost less tomorrow and even less again the next day after that.
But - and this is important - deflation actually slows Government growth (always a good thing) and also holds back a further expansion of the welfare state. Through history, certain economies have shown great growth during deflationary periods.
We have a serious problem. The powers in charge do not wish Americans to save money - because if they did, then the recession would be much deeper and longer. They are printing money at an incredible rate. The Government has so far spent or pledged $5-trillion and that's without the new Administration's promise of another half trillion and without bailing out the auto industry! And perhaps most scary of all - without Social Security and Medicaid!
The deflation we are witnessing is debt deflation - and that is nearly impossible to reverse and that is also why the Fed Chair and many others are fighting like crazy to create enough inflation to put a major beat down on the big D.
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(Copyright © 2008 By Simon L Conway All Rights Reserved.)
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Central Florida real estate market. You can reach me on 407 876 8200. Also visit my web site at www.simonconway.net or www.move2orlando.net
Back in 2004, Florida was hit by three hurricanes in six weeks. It was a freak of nature! Central Florida had not had a direct hit for 40 years before that.
In 2005 there was one major storm - again, nothing in Central Florida. In 2006 and 2007 there was nothing at all.
Now the 2008 season has come to an end and Florida was hit by Tropical Storm Fay which certainly caused some flooding, but overall another quiet season - the third one in a row.
And so the insurance companies are once again telling us that because of the Hurricane season, insurance rates in the State are set to rise again. This time the culprits are numerous. Other States were hit by storms (now hang on a minute here. We have Florida only subsidiaries to protect the main company, but now the Florida companies are supposed to bail out other parts of the main companies?); the credit crunch; the cost of reinsurance has gone up and I could go on.
The potential fall out in real estate is huge because higher rates make homes less affordable. More inventory will deepen the housing crisis.
The only way - and I mean the ONLY way - to stop this is for a genuine outcry from the people. Write to the Governor; Write to your State representatives and Senators.
Sit on your hands and the cost will simply go up.
The picture is of Katrina and is courtesy of NOAA
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(Copyright © 2008 By Simon L Conway All Rights Reserved.)
Please give me a call if you have questions about the Central Florida real estate market. You can reach me on 407 876 8200. Also visit my web site at www.simonconway.net or www.move2orlando.net
I am successful because I genuinely believe that exceptional customer service is an absolute right for people who are entrusting what is often the biggest financial outlay they will ever make - to me.
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