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F. Hill Slowinski, JD

House Prices: Where They Will Be in the Spring

(Reprinted from The KCM Blog, October 2011. Disclaimer: This blog covers the national housing market as a whole. Please check with a local real estate professional to discover how the following information will impact your region. – The KCM Crew.)

Hill's Comment: While the recent S&P/Case-Shiller Index data reflect an overall slight increase in Washington area house prices, this goes against the nationwide trends, in which residential real estate prices dropped more than forecast in the year ended September. Prices rose and sales volume is highest in price ranges that meet the broadest market, the lower ranges. Upper bracket properties prices are not increasing. There are far fewer qualified buyers for higher priced inventory, and these homes are in fact attractive because buyers are getting great value for much lower cost (i.e., more house for their money). Prices offered are declining or these homes are lanquishing on the market. Many experts believe pressure inevitably will continue to mount and will drive all home prices lower in the Washigton market in the future.

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Many sellers want to wait until the spring before putting their home on (or back on) the market. This might be for any of several reasons:

  • They don’t want to be inconvenienced during the holiday season.
  • They believe that they will see more potential buyers and as a result will get a higher price.
  • In the northern part of the country, they might not want people walking through the snow and then into their house.
  • All of the above

In a normal real estate market, this may make sense. However, this market has been anything but normal. This spring will also see some abnormalities. The biggest difference will be the direction prices will take.

In years past, the spring market would favor the seller because increased demand would outpace any increase in supply: the number of houses coming onto the market would not be as great as the number of buyers newly entering the market. In most situations, when demand is greater than supply, prices increase.

The reason this spring will be different is that the supply of homes coming to the market will be dramatically impacted by foreclosure properties being released by the banks. Many believe this increase in inventory will far outweigh buyer demand. In situations where supply is greater than demand, prices decrease.

Will This Actually Happen?
RealtyTrac, in their latest foreclosure report, explained:

U.S. foreclosure activity has been mired down since October of last year, when the robo-signing controversy sparked a flurry of investigations into lender foreclosure procedures and paperwork. While foreclosure activity in September and the third quarter continued to register well below levels from a year ago, there is evidence that this temporary downward trend is about to change direction, with foreclosure activity slowly beginning to ramp back up.

This will impact prices.

What Do Experts Believe the Impact Will Be?
Here are the pricing projections by several major entities:

  • Zillow believes we will not see a bottom in prices until the first quarter of 2012.
  • Standard & Poors thinks prices will drop %5 in the next few months.
  • JP Morgan Chase believes prices will depreciate 6 to 7% over the next six months.
  • Barclays says prices will fall 7% by the end of the first quarter of 2012.

Bottom Line
You may pay a hefty price for the convenience of not having your property on the market right now.

Deadline for ‘Jumbo’ Mortgage Rate Change October 1

$625,000 To Be Maximum Loan Amount in Much of DC Area

More buyers in high-cost areas may be motivated to purchase a home before an Oct. 1 deadline when the government plans to scale back the size of “jumbo” mortgages it guarantees in much of our real estate markets.

By Oct. 1, the maximum loan amount that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is set to decrease from $729,750 to $625,500. Buyers should have ratified contracts by August 31 in order to settle by the end of September or sooner if possible. (The change could occur before October 1.).

This might make mortgages more expensive or more difficult to get for buyers in higher cost areas such as ours. For example, after Oct. 1, a borrower who seeks a government-backed mortgage for a $1 million property may have to come up with a $375,000 down payment instead of $270,000.

Once the current jumbo loan limit expires, lenders who want to make loans over $625,500 will have to either hold onto the mortgage themselves or find a private investor to purchase it.

Washington DC: Sellers Experiencing Both Competition and Frustration

Third Quarter 2010 Report: Stable Prices and Lower Inventories

Market Summary

This has been a frustrating market for many buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals. Buyers in certain price ranges and neighborhoods are finding heavy competition and multiple offers on well-priced homes, while certain sellers are suffering through months on the market without an offer or serious interest.

The third quarter statistics show a 21% decline from Q3 2009; but with the strong first half of the year, year-to-date sales are still up by 14% over 2009. Initially it was unclear whether the expiration of the Federal Tax Credit for First-Time Buyers would have a negative effect on the DC market, but it is now generally acknowledged that the expiration of the tax credit has dampened continuing sales growth.

The sales increase from August to September does give hope of a stronger October and November, as does the state of the inventory. The number of available homes and units had a modest gain of 2% in September, when in past years that increase had often been in the double digits. An even better indicator of the strength of the market is the effective inventory (homes and units for sale divided by number of monthly pending sales).

Single Family

Pending sales of single-family homes in September rose 17% from August, but trailed September of last year by 12%. Through the third quarter, pending sales of homes under $800,000 were down 25% from last September, while homes over $800,000 were up 83%, an indication that the low-end has suffered due to the expiration of the federal tax credit. In any event, the month certainly saw more success in the upper end of the market.

Through nine months of 2010, sales of single-family homes are up 21% from the same point last year. These gains are across all price categories, with the largest gains seen in homes under $200,000 (up 38%), homes between $700,000 and $800,000 (up 37%) and homes between $1,250,000 and $1,500,000 (also up 37%).

The number of homes for sale rose and the effective inventory fell to 3.82 months. The inventory in the upper brackets continued to grow however, and the $1,500,000 and over range showed a substantially higher 7.68 months. Prices of single-family homes have remained stable compared to last year with average prices for properties settled through September down 1% and median prices virtually even with 2009.

Condominiums and Cooperatives

Pending sales of condominiums and cooperatives were down 15% from last year however, with double-digit losses in many price ranges. There were 4.36 months of inventory at the end of September which puts this market somewhere between a buyers' market and a market in equilibrium. Pending sales of units between $150,000 to $300,000 fell 54% from last year, while units over $1,250,000 fell 63%. Units priced between $700,000 and $800,000 did manage a 57% gain, while units between $400,000 and $500,000 saw a 32% gain.

Even with the sales pace slowing through the summer, year-to-date sales of condos and co-ops are ahead 2009 by 6%. The largest gains have occurred in the lowest and highest parts of the market. Sales of units priced under $150,000 were up 92% from last year, while units selling over $1,000,000 were up 49%.

There were 5.19 months of inventory, which unlike the single-family side, puts condos/coops closer to a market in equilibrium. Units priced over $800,000 have 10.3 months of inventory, while units priced from $300,000 to $400,000 have only 2.9 months. The sales and inventory numbers show the condo/co-op market trailing the single-family market. Condo/co-op prices have increased for the year while single-family prices have remained flat. Average prices are up 2% for the year compared to 2009. Median prices are up 4%.

Outlook

With low interest rates seemingly offset by tighter and sometimes inconsistent underwriting guidelines, the prospects for a quick turnaround are dim; but stable prices and low inventories still offer optimism for a solid fall market. There were 4.36 months of inventory at the end of September which puts this market somewhere between a buyers' market and a market in equilibrium. This is good news locally compared to the most recent national numbers which show a much higher figure of 11.6 months. Prices also reflect the comparative stability of the DC market, with single-family prices virtually even with last year and condo/co-op prices up slightly.

Adapted from a report prepared by Fred Kendrick, with data from the Greater Capital Area Association of REALTORS®

Whether To Buy or To Sell During the Holidays

"Happy Valentine's Day!"

Hill Slowinski

Clients are asking, "Should I put my house on the market now, or should I wait?" and "Should I buy now, or should I wait?" What about Thanksgiving, the Holiday season, or New Year's? What about buyer interest and showings and open houses? Why not wait?

It's November. Prices have stabilized. Inventories have come down in many areas. Interest rates are at historic lows. Financing has become more readily available. Sellers planning to also buy can get more house for their money now than before. Sellers who price not only competitively but also compellingly are successfully setting the stage for buyers to make very respectable offers. Buyers who hesitate guessing prices will continue to fluctuate or fall may forego any perceived savings through potential increases in mortgage rates. Sellers are seeing more buyers preparing to act and ready to go.

Even during the holidays, business does not stop and buyers continue to look. If the house is not on the market, it is invisible to buyers. The question should be "Why wait?" Why delay plans and dreams when the environment is so good? Focus on what is important to them to achieve or why they are trying to accomplish it. If a strategy is to buy at the bottom of the market, there is no way to ‘know' the bottom - except to have passed it and to see the upswing.

How do Realtors help clients decide? What should clients think about? What is their motivation to act now and not wait until Spring? Answer: "Happy Valentine's Day!"

To be able to say, "Happy Valentine's Day!" in their new house or at settlement, they have to move ahead now. That becomes their motivation. THAT can be their goal.

Know that many factors are working in their favor. As we learn more about our clients and their expectations, dreams, and desires, we as their Realtors will be better prepared to help them. If they act now to buy or to sell, come February 14, they may also be able to say, "Happy Valentine's Day!"*

-- Hill Slowinski

*Thanks to John Dodd!

Washington, DC Market Second Quarter 2010

Prices, Inventories Provide Reasons for Optimism

Market Summary

Hill SlowinskiFueled by the expiration of the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit, a strong spring market boosted combined year-to-date sales of single-family homes, condominiums, and cooperatives to a 36% increase over 2009 at the end of the second quarter.

The inventory of available homes and units began its typical seasonal decline, falling 3% from May to June and is now 7% below June of last year. We are now statistically closer to a buyer's market than to market equilibrium or a seller's market.

Prices are down slightly for single-family homes and up slightly for condos and co-ops. This actually is the opposite of what is happening in the national market, with home sales and effective inventories in better shape for homes than for condos/co-ops. The slowdown in May probably delayed an expected increase in prices perhaps to 2011, but some neighborhoods are already starting to see prices move up a bit - certainly not to 2005 levels - but up slightly from 2009 prices.

Single Family Homes

At the end of the second quarter of 2010, sales of single-family homes were 38% ahead last year with the highest second quarter total since 2005. Year-to-date settlements were up 61% for homes priced under $300,000. Sales of homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000 were up by 50% and homes over $1,250,000 were up 44%. All price categories showed volume gains over 2009.

The inventory of available homes fell 2% from May to June, even while the number of new listings increased by 16% over June of last year. This is the first time the end-of month inventory fell since February, and it usually drops further in July and August as fewer homeowners brave what is thought to be (sometimes incorrectly) a slower summer market.

With a decline in inventory and increase in sale, the effective inventory fell slightly to 3.31 months, an indication of the strength of the single-family market in the District. Homes between $600,000 and $900,000 have an even lower number of 1.92 months, with buyers in this price range often competing for well-priced properties. At the end of the second quarter, average single-family home prices were down 2%. Median prices were down by 4%.

Condominiums and Cooperatives

The condo/co-op market has been on a roller coaster ride since April sales reached a three-year high. In May, buyers pulled back and in June rebounded with a 41% increase in pending sales. The end of the second quarter found sales 11% ahead of the same point last year. Units under $150,000 were up by 78%, units between $900,000 and $1,000,000 up by 40%, and units between $1,250,000 and $1,500,000 up 50%.

At the end of June, there was 4.77 months of condo/co-op inventory. With the swing in sales totals over the last three months, the effective inventory has also varied widely as well -- from the low for the year of 3.13 months in April to the high of 6.96 months reached the next month in May. June's 4.77 months is higher than the 3.77 months of a year ago. Units between $400,000 and $600,000 have an effective inventory of just over 3 months, while units over $1,000,000 are at 8.67 months.

Average condominium and cooperative prices are up by 1% over 2009 year-end, while median prices are up 3%.

Outlook

Sales fell sharply in May, as buyers interested only in the tax credit left the market, but recovered in June as inventories fell and buyers cautiously reentered the process. While the up-and-down nature of the second quarter is cause for concern, there are reasons for optimism in the summer and fall markets.

After Labor Day inventories can start to build rapidly, and it is important to end the summer at a low enough level that the September increase is manageable in the fall market. With low inventories in certain neighborhoods, sellers sometimes miss opportunities that are more attractive in summer months by waiting to list in a more competitive fall market.

With a 38% year-to-date increase in sales over 2009, it might be surprising to see prices fail to keep up with the market's recovery, but the last market rebound that occurred in the mid-1990s also saw price increases trail a bump in sales by more than a year. The flux in the condo market since April is a cause of concern, but with prices holding firm and inventories falling, the prospects for a good summer market are bright.

Data from the Greater Capital Area Association of REALTORS and adapted from the DC Housing Report, by Fred Kendrick