Existing-home sales increased in February, reversing losses in January, according to the latest report by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. However, sales activity remains relatively soft, reflecting additional layoffs and buyers waiting for housing provisions in the economic stimulus package to take effect, according to NAR.
Existing-home sales— including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—rose 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million units in February from a pace of 4.49 million units in January. Existing-home sales are 4.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit level in February 2008. Seasonal adjustment factors are more volatile in winter months, but sales rates over the past few months show dampened sales activity, according to NAR.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says first-time buyers accounted for half of all home sales last month, with activity concentrated in lower price ranges.
“Because entry level buyers are shopping for bargains, distressed sales accounted for 40 to 45 percent of transactions in February,” he says. “Our analysis shows that distressed homes typically are selling for 20 percent less than the normal market price, and this naturally is drawing down the overall median price.”
Home Buyer Tax Credit Increases Activity
NAR President Charles McMillan says home shopping activity has picked up with housing affordability at a record high.
“The number of buyers looking for homes rose 5 percent in February, and also was 5 percent above a year ago,” he says. “It appears most of the increase in buyer traffic occurred in the latter part of the month after the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit was put in place. At the same time, mortgage purchase applications have risen, so we expect to see sales picking up around late spring.”
McMillan notes that more potential buyers are learning about the tax credit, just as the traditional spring home-buying season begins.
Existing-Home Sales Rise in February
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $165,400 in February, down 15.5 percent from a year ago when the median was $195,800 and conditions were close to normal. The median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
“Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it’s important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn’t equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition,” Yun says.
Housing inventory: Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 5.2 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.7-month supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from January. In the six months prior to February, the total number of homes for sale had steadily declined from a record level last July.
Single-family home sales: rose 4.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.23 million in February from a level of 4.05 million in January, but are 3.6 percent below the 4.39 million-unit pace in February 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $164,600 in February, down 15 percent from a year ago.
Existing condominium and co-op sales: increased 11.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 490,000 units in February from 440,000 units in January, but are 13.1 percent lower than the 564,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $172,200 in February, which is 18.7 percent lower than February 2008.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.13 percent in February from a record low 5.05 percent in January. The rate was 5.92 percent in February 2008. Last month’s average mortgage rate was the second lowest since data collection began in 1971. Last week the rate further declined to 4.98 percent.
Regional Breakdown
Yun says a recovery in the West is much stronger than expected. “Strong sales gains in the West are led by California, where the median listing price is beginning to rise for the first time in three years,” he says.
Here's how existing-home sales fared across the country:
* Northeast: jumped 15.6 percent to an annual pace of 740,000 in February, but 14.9 percent below February 2008. Median price: $251,200, down 4.8 percent from a year ago.
* Midwest: increased 1 percent in February to a pace of 1.04 million but 14 percent lower than a year ago. Median price: $131,000, which is 7.8 percent below February 2008.
* South: rose 6.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.74 million in February but 11.2 percent below February 2008. Median price: $146,700, down 10 percent from a year ago.
* West: increased 2.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.2 million in February and remain 30.4 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $204,600, which is 30.3 percent below February 2008.
Source: NAR
Don't be surprised if your friendly lender, the one who invites you to sit down and apply for a mortgage, ushers you politely out the door empty-handed after you've chatted a bit.
The sudden chill isn't personal. The Mortgage Bankers Association, or MBA, in Washington, D.C., estimates that about half of all mortgage applicants are now being turned down. Though refinancing approvals remained static, the acceptance rate on mortgage applications suffered a 10 percentage-point drop, from 63 percent in the first half of 2007 to 53 percent in the first half of last year, according to mortgage data tracked semi-annually by the association. Since then, further tightening of credit standards means at least half of mortgage-seeking consumers can't squeeze through to acceptance, says MBA spokeswoman Carolyn Kemp.
Instead of yielding to shame, anger or any of the usual emotions associated with rejection, today's consumers who are intent on buying or refinancing should adopt a pragmatic stance, since clear-eyed determination may eventually land them a loan.
Here's how:
1. Get a read on the reason
If you've submitted a formal application, federal law dictates that you're entitled to a formal rejection.
Expect an "adverse action" notice, spelling out the reasons for turning you down, which these days is likely to state that the loan amount you're seeking is too large compared to the current appraised value of your home, says Joe Theisen, president of the Wisconsin Mortgage Professionals Association and branch manager of Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp. in Madison, Wis.
If it's not your home's value that's the issue, it may be your personal credentials, such as your creditworthiness, work history or debt load.
When credit is the issue, an adverse-action notice is required, naming the credit reporting agency that provided the data on which the lender based its decision, according to Federal Trade Commission rules. You're also entitled to a free credit report; see the FTC Web site for more information.
Given the odds of acceptance, a lender may not require you to pay a few hundred dollars to submit a formal application, which includes the cost of a professional appraisal on the property. Instead, he may pull a credit score, and tell you what you're likely eligible for, says Marc Savitt, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.
2. Find a fix
Qualifying for a mortgage isn't a black-and-white issue. Rather, different loans at varying rates may be available, depending on how risky a lender thinks a particular mortgage will be. If you don't qualify at 5.5 percent, for instance, you may be able to get the nod for a loan at 6 percent or 6.5 percent.
However, many borrowers, especially those who are refinancing, need a certain rate to reach the monthly payment they want. Not only are rates higher for risky loans, but there are now upfront "point" charges dictated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two big mortgage guarantors currently under government control, Savitt says.
To get a good rate, some borrowers may be able to make changes — like lowering the amount of the loan they seek.
When a borrower isn't far from the qualifying mark, he may be able to reapply and be approved relatively quickly. For instance, if you're within reach of a 740 credit score, which is usually required for the best rate, you might pay down a balance on a credit card and hit the target, Theisen says.
3. Seek out other opinions
Not every lending firm adheres strictly to the same playbook, and one lender may approve what another rejects, says Savitt, who recently had a borrower with good credit turned down for a low down payment, government-insured loan, but found another firm giving the green light.
A local "community bank," meaning a smaller, hometown institution, may be more flexible, contends Diane Scriveri, chief lending officer at Bogota Savings Bank in Teaneck, N.J., and vice chair of the affordable housing committee of the New Jersey League of Community Banks.
"Because we're local, we may know home values better. We still use independent appraisals of course, but we may look at comparable (home values) differently because we know what's really happening in different neighborhoods," she says.
Credit unions, which only offer loans to consumers who qualify for credit union membership, may also be more forgiving, says Tony Emerson, president of the Credit Union League of Connecticut.
"It would be foolhardy to suggest that in every case, you can go to a credit union and get a loan," Emerson says.
Still, he says, some credit unions may judge loan eligibility based upon the unique relationship they have with their members. For instance, many credit unions offer membership to employees of specific companies and would know more about a member's job stability, he says.
4. Give it another try
The Mortgage Bankers Association is predicting that 30-year fixed rates will hover near the 5 percent range through 2009. So if predictions hold and interest rates stay relatively low, you should have time to try again if the factors behind your rejection improve.
Fortunately, a rejection shouldn't bring down your credit scores, says Craig Watts, public relations director for Fair Isaac Corp.
Making a formal application and then reapplying more than a month later could lower your score, but only by about 5 points. Most scoring systems allow consumers to make multiple mortgage applications within a 30-day period without any negative impact on their credit score. But mortgage inquiries older than 30 days will count as a single inquiry if they're made within a 14-day or 45-day window, depending on the scoring model used.
(March. 22, 2009, Bankrate.com via MSNBC.com)
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…following?
Is it more important to have a lot of people following you on Facebook or Twitter, or a smaller group with whom you interact more frequently? This seems to be the new debate of the social media world. With a lot of interest in Social Media as a potential source of business, some really traditional behavior has entered this untraditional venue.
People that used to assemble huge mailing lists now assemble huge numbers of followers using different techniques or APIs rather than building relationships. Auto DMs on Twitter that say “Thanks for following I look forward to exchanging much valuable information” seems to have taken the place of actually seeing if you have something in common with the people in your community.
On Facebook, you have people asking to be your friend that have nothing in common with you, or whom you have no relationship to. And then sending you information on their services and products in a space that is really not designed for that. Twitter has numerous APIs that offer to find people to follow you, and social media gurus who suggest manipulating the Twitter system to increase the number of people in your distribution chain.
Me, I find that offensive and I have lately been terminating the relationship if it seems to be completely commercial. I want the social network to be social. I want to choose my trusted advisors rather than have them thrust information on me at their convenience.
We have all heard that you need to “sell the sizzle not the steak”, but are you all sizzle and no steak? Do you have lots and lots of followers and very little dialogue? Is there anything in your interaction that brings value to your community?
If the effective part of social networking is gaining the trust of your community so that they are predisposed to do business with you when they are ready, then the size of your following should be substantially less important than the quality of your interaction and the focus of the community’s needs.
If you contribute to the conversation, provide content and information for your community members, and become an influencer in that community, I would submit that you have a more effective grasp of the benefits of social media than the person who has a huge number of people following them that don’t react to their posts and tweets.
We see large important social media influencers with large groups of followers and confuse the form with the substance. The audience came because they were important, they didn’t become important because they got an audience.
They got that huge audience because they had things to share that people wanted to hear. They had knowledge about topics that people wanted to learn about. They generated interest because of the way they spoke or the way they wrote, or who they were in real life.
So connect with the people you know, or the community where you live, and particpate in the conversations they are interested in. You need to overwhelm them with what you know not who you know.
(Source agentgenius.com)
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The amount of damage to a credit score caused by foreclosure, deed in lieu or a short sale during 2008 and 2009 may be mitigated by the slower economic times, say some credit and legal experts.
FICO may have to adjust its credit scores to lessen the impact of a foreclosure in the last two years, says Todd J. Zywicki, a professor of law at George Mason University.
''It just seems obvious that a foreclosure in 2008 or 2009 doesn't have as much information value as a foreclosure five years ago,'' he says. ''To the extent that foreclosure doesn't predict future behavior as much as it did in the past, you'd expect that the FICO algorithm would change to adjust for that.''
One of the country’s largest credit unions Golden 1 has already figured out a way to lend to people with a foreclosure on their record by offering a mortgage repair loan specifically for those who have lost a home to foreclosure and who want to buy a new one.
BECU, another large credit union based in Washington State, is about to present a program to fellow lenders, ''How to Lend to the Newly Credit Impaired.”
Source: The New York Times, Ron Lieber (03/14/2009)
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Freddie Mac reports a drop in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 4.98 percent during the week ended March 19 from 5.03 percent the prior year, marking the lowest rate since 4.96 percent in mid-January.
Experts say rates could fall further in response to the Federal Reserve's announcement that it will add $1.2 trillion to the economy to alleviate the credit crisis.
Source: Tulsa World (Okla.) (03/20/09)
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