Mark Alder

Here are the latest home inventory levels pulled from the WFRMLS as of Feb 21, 2008. To get the number below, I divide the number of homes sold in the last 30 days (for that particular Salt Lake zip code) by the total number of homes on the market in the given zip code. In this way, the number is a great barometer of activity for an area in the last 30 days. The numbers below confirm that January's numbers were low because of the Holidays. And they also show some stabilization in some areas.

The Liberty Park Tennis Bubble needs your support. The bubble is under attack from a neighbor that claims the bubble blocks his/her sight of the mountains. There will be a meeting of the Historical Landmark Commission on Feb 20th to determine the fate of the tennis bubble.

You can come and just show your support or you can participate with a 2 minute statement. The meeting will be held at the City Building on 4th South and State in room #326.

I use the bubble regularly and it is a big part of my lifestyle that makes living in this city so great. I think it would be tragic to the park and the Liberty Park neighborhood to have the bubble taken down. If you feel the same, please join me at the meeting.

I recently published the WFRMLS 4th quarter numbers last week and today I realized something I did not catch on first glance. The average sales price from 3rd quarter 2007 to 4th quarter 2007 dropped 6%. The silver lining I see is sellers are adjusting prices and hopefully the home inventory will go down a little and we can get through this market correction quickly.

Here are the latest time on market numbers I compiled today. I go to the WFRMLS (Wasatch Front Regional Multiple Listing Service) and I take the number of homes currently on the market and divide that number by the number of homes sold in the last 30 days. These numbers tell us how long would it take to sell the existing inventory if no other homes came on the market according to how many homes sold last month. One reason these inventory numbers are high is that the last 30 days included the holiday season so there was not a lot of selling at that time.

The WFRMLS has just released their 2007 4^th Quarter Statistics today. And I am happy to report these numbers to you first.

What stands out to me first is that we are looking at close to 0% appreciation from 4^th Quarter 2006 to 4^th Quarter 2007. And the total number of single family homes sold is down 44%.

I think there is no more hiding that the housing slump has hit Utah. What I don’t want this blog entry to be is another doom and gloom piece about how much trouble we are in. I think it is better to look at it the same way you would look at your bank statement. When you look at your bank statement and see that you are in the red, you face the reality and start making changes. That may mean getting a part time job and spending less.

In this case, I think there are a few changes we can make. Sellers are still raising their asking prices by close to 10% even while all the numbers point in the opposite direction. Sellers can stop asking for higher prices in order to unload the current inventory.

Buyers can stop sitting on the sidelines and start taking action. This may mean aggressively bidding on properties to find the motivated sellers. Or if you are not ready to start bidding, start saving a down payment so you can qualify for a loan while rates are super low.

It is definitely time to face reality. I know that I have given the Salt Lake Tribune grief in the past for being too pessimistic and publishing front page articles about negative housing statistics. But now I am going to give them grief for their Saturday article, “SLC Condo Market Remains Healthy.” I don’t think they painted a realistic picture when a look at 84101’s (a downtown zip code) 4^th quarter statistics shows the total number of condos sold in that zip down 33% from a year ago.

Only by taking a honest look at where we are can we determine what we need to do to go where we want to go.