Stephen Winters - ABR

News release from Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Urban housing starts posted solid growth during the month of December, according to preliminary data1 released today by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). December’s total housing starts posted 55 per cent growth, with 202 starts recorded throughout the St. John’s area versus 130 in December of 2007. An additional 24 housing starts were recorded in other urban areas across the province for a total of 226 provincial starts, an increase of 44 per cent. For the year, urban housing starts totaled 2,229 throughout the province, up 22 per cent. Within the St. John’s region, starts reached a 33-year high of 1,863 in 2008, a 26 per cent gain over the 1,480 starts posted in 2007.

“Urban housing starts ended the year with considerable growth and were consistent with CMHC’s new home construction expectations for 2008,” said Chris Janes, Senior Market Analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “Residential construction activity within the St. John’s metro area reached a 33-year high in 2008, with solid economic and demographic fundamentals creating unprecedented buyer demand and price growth throughout the year,” added Janes. For Canada’s urban centres, total housing starts decreased six per cent with 10,487 recorded in December compared to 11,157 during December of 2007. Single-detached starts fell 29 per cent to 4,335, while multiple starts of 6,152 represent a 22 per cent increase from a year ago. Throughout Atlantic Canada, there were 574 urban housing starts posted versus 651 the previous December, a decline of 12 per cent.

Third quarter average Newfoundland MLS residential house price surged 19% to $182,306 compared to $153,053 during the third quarter of 2007, with additional price growth expected throughout the remainder of this year and next. This third quarter surge comes after a stellar second quarter MLS stats. Average price is closer to $200,000 in St. John’s, Mount Pearl and Paradise.

MLS® sales advanced 11% to 1,695 units compared to last year’s third quarter sales of 1,529 units. The monthly break down for the third quarter: July, August and September MLS® sales were 610, 541 and 544, respectively.

Unprecedented demand for housing has driven active St. John's residential listings approximately 42% lower to the end of the third quarter. Active listings for July, August and September were 1,921, 1,693 and 1,524, respectively with new listings of 870, 632 and 744, respectively. New listings increased 6% during the third quarter, but the dramatic decline in active listings kept overall listings low.

There were 2,246 new residential listings during the third quarter compared to 2,120 during the same period last year. With sellers conditions, active listings averaged just 1,713 from July to September versus 2,756 during the third quarter of 2007.

Sales to active listings ratio hit 36% in September and averaged 33% during the third quarter versus 19% the third quarter of 2007.

Bank of Canada cut its rate 50 basis points (0.5%) October 8th, making it a full 2% in cuts since December 2007. Bank rate currently sits at 2.50% with the prime lending rate ranging from 4.25% to 4.35% at Canadian banks (as of October 17th). Quite possible that the Bank of Canada could cut its rate again by another 50 basis points by the end of this week lowering the lending rate to 2.00%

Although a recent report pegged St. John’s as one of the most affordable cities in the G7 nations, affordability is a growing concern. Buyers continue to face challenging market conditions, including unprecedented demand and extremely tight inventory levels.

Multiple offers are quite prevalent. It is not uncommon to see quality, new listings generate three to four offers after only a few days on the market, with most selling for more than list price. Bungalows are especially coveted.

Despite a sense of urgency in the marketplace, buyers remain quite determined. Most are willing to compromise by way of necessity, while others ante up more money to compete. Some entry-level purchasers are sitting on the fence, waiting for more product to come on stream with the Spring market and better weather.

Currently, average price in Greater St. John’s hovers at $172,000. Although the St. John's downtown core has more affordable options, most purchasers prefer Woodlands, Cowan Heights, and Mount Pearl, where three-bedroom, resale homes start from $180,000.

Condominiums are a viable alternative, but this type of product is popular with only a small percentage of first-time buyers. St. John's Condos can start from $100,000 for a one-bedroom unit in an old military conversion to $130,000 for a two-bedroom in an older building in the northwest end of the city. Duplex product, though limited, is also growing in demand, and more units are coming on stream.

The least expensive sales recorded to date in St. John’s include a detached home with some new upgrades that changed hands for $140,000 and an 800 sq. ft. condo apartment that sold for $95,100 in an older, but renovated, building. Both were located in the city’s east end.

With average prices forecast to experience double-digit momentum yet again this year, it is expected that the first time buyer segment will remain very active as purchasers try to buy in before prices rise further.

• MLS® residential sales increased 14.3 per cent to 713 units compared to last year’s first quarter sales of 624 units

• January, February and March MLS® sales were 236, 238 and 239, respectively and were held back by a lack of active listings

• Driven by low inventory, the first quarter average MLS® house price jumped 13.6 per cent to a record $156,953 compared to $138,167 during the first quarter of 2007

• The resale market headed quickly to a sellers classification last Fall and remained there throughout the first quarter of 2008

• Average time-on-market trended lower during the quarter, strong price growth continued and many choice properties enjoyed multiple purchase offers

• Current trends indicate the market will favor sellers once again during the second quarter, but an expected improvement in active listings may provide some relief for buyers

• After falling nearly a half by January, active listings rebounded slightly during February and March, but remained low, restricting unit sales growth accordingly

• The supply of active residential listings averaged approximately 1,150 during the first quarter compared to almost double that number at 2,100 a year ago

• First quarter new listings were near last year’s first quarter level of 1,600, while active listings retreated 45 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2007

• With U.S. recessionary pressures continuing, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to cut rates 50 basis points by June 10th

• Accordingly, mortgage interest rates are expected to remain low in 2008 and start to creep higher in 2009 as investors gain more confidence in financial markets

• One and five-year mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.25-7.25 and 6.50-7.50 per cent range, respectively, in 2008 and beyond

Anyone who has ever been to North America's Oldest City can attest to the fact that it's a great city. St. John's has become a great place to relocate for a variety of recent economic reasons. Here are my reasons why St. John's Newfoundland is a good choice for relocation.

7. Scenery - View Newfoundland's spectacular coastlines, panoramic views, icebergs, whales and provincial parks.

6. Affordable Housing - Average real estate price for in St. John's is lower then most cities in Canada. We are seeing more and more emails from people in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto looking to relocate back to Newfoundland or looking to invest in Newfoundland.

5. Quality of living - Enjoy a high standard of living, low population, great schools, little traffic, fresh clean air and genuine Newfoundland hospitality.

4. Proximity - Your commute to and from work, schools and amenities is VERY short. You can drive from East End St. John's to West End in about 15mins. With the Outer Ring Road, commute time from Paradise and CBS has been reduced significantly.

3. Nightlife - There is always something to do in the evenings. Plays, theater, beautiful restaurants and live music at most George Street bars.

2. Outdoor Activities - There are lots of winter sports (skiing, ice fishing, skating, snowboarding, ice hockey, snowmobiling, etc.) and endless summer activities (golfing, baseball, soccer, swimming, jogging, sea kayaking, rowing etc.). Hike or camp the trails in provincial parks or the East Coast Trail. Hunt moose, rabbit, caribou or pick blueberries. There is something here for everyone.

1. The next few years are looking very promising for Newfoundland. There is a lot of hype on our oil and gas industry. Hebron, White Rose, Hibernia, and the Terra Nova Project, all major contributors to the Newfoundland Economy. This combined with the low cost of living makes St. John's an attractive city to relocate.

Allow Fraser and Stephen Winters to assist you when relocating to St. John's or surrounding areas. Email us for a relocation package.