Susan Grant

Downtown Santa Cruz - Holiday Carriage Rides

December

Carriage Rides

$5 Tickets available at Hat Company (1346 Pacific Ave.)

Schedule:
Friday Dec. 10th & 175h 5-8:30pm
Saturday Dec. 11th & 18th 3-7pm
Sunday Dec. 5th, 12th, & 19th 1-5pm
Plus Dec. 21st, 22nd, & 23rd from 4-7pm

Downtown Santa Cruz Holiday Parade

Pacific Ave.
Downtown Santa Cruz
VIEW MAP

Phone: 831.429.8433
downtownsantacruz.com

Join us Downtown this Saturday, December 4th from 10am-12pm along Pacific Avenue for our Annual Holiday Parade! See antique cars, dancers, Santa and more!!!

After the parade, stay downtown for additional winter holiday events and activities!!!

FREE

Date: December 04, 2010
Time: 10am - noon

Snow Night - December 9, 2010

Join in the fun on December 9!

A favorite with the little ones, each year the street gets filled with snow for the night and the frolicking begins. Last year's event raised over 5,300 pounds of food for Second Harvest Food Bank.

This year, there will be entertainment as you wait for your arctic fun.

Ticket Policies:

Free tickets become available at 4:00. Look for the booth at the corner of Cooper and Pacific.

This is a timed-entry event. Snow Sessions are 10 minutes long and available on a first-come, first-served basis. Tickets are not available for pre-order, and the line can get lengthy very quickly, so please arrive early if you need an early Snow Session.

Each child needs a ticket to enter the snow area. Parents accompanying them do not need tickets.

If tickets are sold out, there will be a waiting line for anyone wishing to stay until 8:00pm for overflow Snow Sessions.

Time:

5:00-8:00pm; Tickets available at 4:00pm

Ticket Charge:

This event is a fundraiser for Second Harvest Food Bank. Please bring a donation of non-perishable food items, or feel free to make a monetary donation. (Sorry, no credit cards!)

Free Holiday Family Movie at the Historic Del Mar Theater
Toy Story 3!!!
Bring a donation for Second Harvest Food Bank
December 18th at 11am

Santa Claus is Coming to Town
Come visit Santa at Marini's (1308 Pacific Ave.)
Saturday Dec. 4th, 11th & 18th 2-6pm
Sunday Dec. 5th, 12th, & 19th 2-6pm
Plus Dec. 21st, 22nd, & 23rd from 2-6pm
*Santa will also be at the Snow Night event

For Market Reports City by City please click here.

Want MLS listings in Santa Cruz emailed to you, easy just click here.

To search for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay properties go to, www.SusanGrant.biz, www.SantaCruzAvoidForeclosure.com or contact Susan Grant directly at (831) 247-9140.

Susan Grant, David Lyng Real Estate,
Santa Cruz & the Monterey Bay Coast

DRE#01331769

Two Important Statistics Determining
Market Momentum
Sales momentum for single-family, re-sale homes in Santa Cruz County dipped into negative territory in September for the first time since January 2009. This trend continued in October.

We calculate...

sales momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.

In the chart below...

are two of the most important statistics determining market momentum. The blue shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending home sales.

Sales momentum peaked in July and has been trending down ever since. Pending sales, which normally track closed sales closely, have jumped out of the norm due to the large number of foreclosure and short sales in the past two years.

In a normal market...

pending sales close within 60 days. In today's market, pending sales are taking much longer due to the high number of foreclosure and short sales, which require lender approval. This has pumped up the number of pending sales, which, in a normal market would indicate increasing sales in the coming two months. But, because a majority of pending sales are foreclosure or short sales, a greater potion of these sales never close.

Pricing momentum...

on the other hand, generally lags the buying and selling indicators provided by the sales momentum trend. In the chart below, the purple line shows the median price momentum indicator.

As you can see, when the sales momentum indicator changed to a sell signal in May 2005, prices didn't peak until November, when they started a gradual decline. The median price indicator really started falling when it crossed the 0 axis in February 2008.

The sales momentum indicator hit its low in June 2008 then started turning up, but the price indicator kept falling until sales momentum's next peak in May 2009, when pricing momentum started picking up.

More statistics...

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down, year-over-year, for the fourth month out of the past five. The median price was down 0.8%.

Inventory turned downward, as is its wont this time of year, dropping 8.9% from September. Year-over-year, inventory was up for the fifth month in a row: 21.3%.

The sales price to list price ratio was down 0.7 of a point to 96%. The ratio's median since 2003 is 97.9%.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.

For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call (831) 247-9140.

Statistics: Tracking Momentum

As we mentioned last month, the Internet is strewn with statistics, some good, some bad, and some downright ugly. So, what are statistics for?

Statistics are for...

determining the best time to buy or sell real estate. If the statistics you are tracking do that, they're good. If they don't, they're misleading, at best.

Tracking momentum...

is the best way to determine when to buy or sell real estate. The question becomes which statistics to track.

Robert Campbell, a San Diego based real estate investor, in his 2004 book "Timing the Real Estate Market", lists five "vital signs" he tracks to time the market, in order from strongest to weakest:

1. Existing home sales

2. New home building permits

3. Mortgage loan defaults

4. Foreclosure sales, and

5. Interest rates

He uses the same basic formula for all five: (current 12-month moving average-previous 12-month moving)/current 12-month moving average.

Finding the data...

means tapping into a variety of sources.

Sales data is the easiest to track. Local newspapers publish this data each month. If you want historical sales data, you can call us and we'll provide it for you.

In California, new home building permits are tracked by the Construction Industry Research Board. The board charges for their data. (http://cirbdata.com)

There are a variety of sources for mortgage loan default and foreclosure sales data starting with the county recorder's office. Other sources, for which you will have to pay are: http://dataquick.com, and http://foreclosureradar.com.

Interest rate data can be had at a number of different sites: http://hsh.com, http://bankrate.com, orhttp://federalreserve.gov. While Campbell tracks 1-year t-bills, monthly mortgage rates can also be used.

Next month, we will review the timing method Craig Hall uses in his 2003 book, "Timing the Real Estate Market: How to Buy Low and Sell High in Real Estate."

This author identifies seven trends to track to determine when real estate cycles are about to turn.

For Market Reports City by City please click here.

Want MLS listings in Santa Cruz emailed to you, easy just click here.

To search for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay properties go to, www.SusanGrant.biz, www.SantaCruzAvoidForeclosure.com or contact Susan Grant directly at (831) 247-9140.

Susan Grant, David Lyng Real Estate, Santa Cruz & the Monterey Bay Coast

DRE#01331769

"Mixed Nutz!"
The Nutcracker Re-Mixed

Theater Arts Mainstage

Presented by:

Theater Arts Dept

Event Date Range:

Friday, November 19, 2010 - Sunday, December 5, 2010

Division Home Page Listing Placement:

Right Column

"Tandy Beal's astonishing and gorgeous staged spectacle 'Mixed Nutz! is the ideal holiday experience."
- Wallace Baine, Santa Cruz Sentinel

TICKETS on sale now!

Mixed Nutz! playfully maintains the true spirit and basic story of the traditional Nutcracker: festively dressed party-goers enter for an evening of holiday merriment, young Clara receives a toy nutcracker as a special gift, and magic starts to unfold... with entertaining side trips in Candyland, a visit by the Sugar Plum Fairy, a Waltz of the Flowers, and much more.

Mixed Nutz! is a co-production of Tandy Beal & Company and the UCSC Theater Arts Department.

Tickets on sale ONLINE.

By phone or in person:
UCSC Ticket Office (831-459-2159)
Santa Cruz Civic Box Office (831-420-5260)

Opening weekend:
All tickets up to 20% off -- $14.75-$27.00

Weekends 2 & 3: $17.50-$32.50
(prices include all applicable fees)

+ + + + +
PERFORMANCES:
Friday, 11/19: Opening Performance 7:00 pm
Saturday, 11/20: 2:00 pm MATINEE

Friday, 11/26: 2:00 pm MATINEE and 7:00 pm EVENING
Saturday, 11/27: 2:00 pm MATINEE and 7:00 pm EVENING
Sunday, 11/28: 2:00 pm MATINEE

Friday, 12/3: 7:00 pm EVENING
Saturday, 12/4: 2:00 pm MATINEE and 7:00 pm EVENING
Sunday, 12/5 2:00 pm MATINEE

For Market Reports City by City please click here.

Want MLS listings in Santa Cruz emailed to you, easy just click here.

To search for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay properties go to, www.SusanGrant.biz, www.SantaCruzAvoidForeclosure.com or contact Susan Grant directly at (831) 247-9140.

Susan Grant, David Lyng Real Estate, Santa Cruz & the Monterey Bay Coast

DRE#01331769

Two Important Statistics Determining
Market Momentum
Sales momentum for single-family, re-sale homes in Santa Cruz County dipped into negative territory in September for the first time since January 2009. This trend continued in October.

We calculate...

sales momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum.

In the chart below...

are two of the most important statistics determining market momentum. The blue shows momentum for home sales while the red line shows momentum for pending home sales.

Sales momentum peaked in July and has been trending down ever since. Pending sales, which normally track closed sales closely, have jumped out of the norm due to the large number of foreclosure and short sales in the past two years.

In a normal market...

pending sales close within 60 days. In today's market, pending sales are taking much longer due to the high number of foreclosure and short sales, which require lender approval. This has pumped up the number of pending sales, which, in a normal market would indicate increasing sales in the coming two months. But, because a majority of pending sales are foreclosure or short sales, a greater potion of these sales never close.

Pricing momentum...

on the other hand, generally lags the buying and selling indicators provided by the sales momentum trend. In the chart below, the purple line shows the median price momentum indicator.

As you can see, when the sales momentum indicator changed to a sell signal in May 2005, prices didn't peak until November, when they started a gradual decline. The median price indicator really started falling when it crossed the 0 axis in February 2008.

The sales momentum indicator hit its low in June 2008 then started turning up, but the price indicator kept falling until sales momentum's next peak in May 2009, when pricing momentum started picking up.

More statistics...

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down, year-over-year, for the fourth month out of the past five. The median price was down 0.8%.

Inventory turned downward, as is its wont this time of year, dropping 8.9% from September. Year-over-year, inventory was up for the fifth month in a row: 21.3%.

The sales price to list price ratio was down 0.7 of a point to 96%. The ratio's median since 2003 is 97.9%.

Remember, the real estate market is a matter of neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.

For complete information on a particular neighborhood or property, call (831) 247-9140.

Statistics: Tracking Momentum

As we mentioned last month, the Internet is strewn with statistics, some good, some bad, and some downright ugly. So, what are statistics for?

Statistics are for...

determining the best time to buy or sell real estate. If the statistics you are tracking do that, they're good. If they don't, they're misleading, at best.

Tracking momentum...

is the best way to determine when to buy or sell real estate. The question becomes which statistics to track.

Robert Campbell, a San Diego based real estate investor, in his 2004 book "Timing the Real Estate Market", lists five "vital signs" he tracks to time the market, in order from strongest to weakest:

1. Existing home sales

2. New home building permits

3. Mortgage loan defaults

4. Foreclosure sales, and

5. Interest rates

He uses the same basic formula for all five: (current 12-month moving average-previous 12-month moving)/current 12-month moving average.

Finding the data...

means tapping into a variety of sources.

Sales data is the easiest to track. Local newspapers publish this data each month. If you want historical sales data, you can call us and we'll provide it for you.

In California, new home building permits are tracked by the Construction Industry Research Board. The board charges for their data. (http://cirbdata.com)

There are a variety of sources for mortgage loan default and foreclosure sales data starting with the county recorder's office. Other sources, for which you will have to pay are: http://dataquick.com, and http://foreclosureradar.com.

Interest rate data can be had at a number of different sites: http://hsh.com, http://bankrate.com, orhttp://federalreserve.gov. While Campbell tracks 1-year t-bills, monthly mortgage rates can also be used.

Next month, we will review the timing method Craig Hall uses in his 2003 book, "Timing the Real Estate Market: How to Buy Low and Sell High in Real Estate."

This author identifies seven trends to track to determine when real estate cycles are about to turn.

For Market Reports City by City please click here.

Want MLS listings in Santa Cruz emailed to you, easy just click here.

To search for Santa Cruz, Monterey Bay properties go to, www.SusanGrant.biz, www.SantaCruzAvoidForeclosure.com or contact Susan Grant directly at (831) 247-9140.

Susan Grant, David Lyng Real Estate, Santa Cruz & the Monterey Bay Coast

DRE#01331769