Tamala Prickett

Prickett Properties LLC is proud to announce that it professionally manages the Rosemary Beach Estate in Rosemary Beach Florida. The Rosemary Beach home is available for rent year around at

http://www.gotothegulfcoast.com/complex_details.cfm?ComplexID=43

Have you stayed in Rosemary Beach? If the answer is yes, then I don't have to explain any further about the magic of Rosemary Beach. If the answer is no, please read on.

The Rosemary Beach Home is a phenomenal estate in the heart of Rosemary Beach. People literally come from all over the world to stay in Rosemary. The savviest and most sophisticated travelers love Rosemary Beach. The town is quaint, fabulous, convenient and full of amenities! Everything from restaurants, pools, to an on-site spa is at your door step. The town has a European ambience, but a much quicker drive :)

Rosmary Beach Homeowners and Guests bike and walk instead of drive bringing us back to yesteryears. They enjoy a game of touch football in the amphitheatre with a take-out pizza from Cowgirl Kitchen. They enjoy the sunday sermon at the Rosmary Beach church, and always love to hear the church bell ring in the next hour.

The beaches are family friendly and easily accessible from multiple locations within the resort. The architecure speaks for itself. You can view pictures at

http://www.gotothegulfcoast.com/complex_details.cfm?ComplexID=43

The Rosemary Beach home has gulf views and is very close to 30-A (about 4 houses). The beach is a short walk or bike ride. This newly constructed in 2008 home has 3 bedrooms and 3 full baths in the main house and 1 bedroom and full bath in the carriage house.The carriage house also has its own living room, laundry, and full kitchen.

The House also features a private heated pool. The main house has 1 King, 1 Queen, 2 Full size Beds, and Hallway Bunks to sleep a total of 10. The carriage house has a queen bed and queen sleeper sofa to sleep a total of 4. The total sleeping capacity is 14.

Please be our guests at the Rosemary Beach Estate. Online booking available at

http://www.gotothegulfcoast.com/complex_details.cfm?ComplexID=43

Prickett Properties LLC

These are key questions that Prickett Properties LLC gets from many of its investors. We often ask ourselves this very question.

We spend a great deal of time researching, researching, researching. Through our research, we have found that there is an 18 year cycle in real estate. As Fred Foldvary pointed out, the downturn began in 2006 of the 18 year cycle (see previous post). Unfortunately, 2008 is a "key" year for the inevitable real estate downtown being marked as the year of the real estate depression.

Now that we have accepted where we are in the real estate market, we have to ask ourselves when it will end. We all want to come out on top of this, right? RIGHT!

I found an intersting article where the author also references the 18 year real estate cycle. The article written in August 2008 pointed out that

"...the current cycle is ending. The downturn will not be pleasant, but I expect we are already in the process of healing. Secretary Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke have acted; liquidity is being restored to the financial markets and soon confidence will be restored as well. Slowly, the oversupply is being cleared. There has been an increase in sales every month since January and the pending sales for June showed an increase as well."

He also stated that

"If history is a guide, fortunes will be made. Value is being restored to selective markets, and prime properties are available at discounted prices. Over the next 12 months, investors will be able to exploit the distressed properties and "special situations" that will appear in a universe of potential investment properties. Prime properties at great prices are available at values that will not be available again until the end of the next cycle; perhaps we will be lucky enough to enjoy another 16 years until the cycle repeats."

If history is any indication, now is the time to buy!!! Don't be the guy who waits until we are on top of the 18 year cycle. Be the guy who buys at the bottom of the 18 year cycle.

Prickett Properties LLC provides real estate services for investment properties along the Alabama Gulf Coast. We service Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Daphne, Fairhope, and Mobile Alabama. There are some excellent distressed deal out there right now. Call us today.

Prickett Properties LLC

Tamala Prickett

Http://www.GoToTheGulfCoast.com

This article is surreal. I recently found it by googling the 18 year real estate cycle. I think it is important for real estate professionals to study history as it often repeats itself. The author of this article could not have been more right about what has happened in 2008.

Here are some highlights from his article (I will post the entire article below):

"The last real estate depression was in 1990, and if the 18-year pattern continues, the next depression will occur around the year 2008. The cycle period has not always been exactly 18 years, so the next recession could come in 2007 or after 2008, but I believe that 2008 is the most likely year."

"The latest confirmation of the coming recession has been a drop in manufacturing and construction in the USA. U.S. manufacturing fell for the first time in 3.5 years, while real estate construction had its greatest decline since September 2001. There are already recessions in two key industries, residential real estate and automobile manufacturing."

"Fred Harrison in the U.K. has forecast a depression in 2010, but it seems to me that most likely it will come sooner, as indicated by the recent weakness in the U.S. industrial base. So I am sticking to the 2008 forecast which I have been making for over 10 years. Interestingly, 2008 will be an election year, and a recession would probably deliver the election to the Democratic party."

Fred Harrision appears to be another expert on real estate cycles. Look for upcoming posts about the 18 year cycle and what the future hold for us.

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The 18-year real estate boom-bust cycle has been running on schedule. The last real estate depression was in 1990, and if the 18-year pattern continues, the next depression will occur around the year 2008. The cycle period has not always been exactly 18 years, so the next recession could come in 2007 or after 2008, but I believe that 2008 is the most likely year.

The latest confirmation of the coming recession has been a drop in manufacturing and construction in the USA. U.S. manufacturing fell for the first time in 3.5 years, while real estate construction had its greatest decline since September 2001. There are already recessions in two key industries, residential real estate and automobile manufacturing. The slow-down in real estate construction causes a decrease in the purchase of related durable goods -- furniture and appliances -- and in turn, inputs such as lumber.

The real estate cycle world-wide follows a consistent pattern. There is first an expansion of money and credit by the monetary authorities. That expansion artificially reduces interest rates, which then increases borrowing for long-duration capital goods such as real estate construction, as well as the purchase of real estate. The expansion of the economy reduces vacancies and then raises rentals and real estate prices. Speculators then jump in to profit from this increase, adding to the demand and accelerating the increase in land values. The expansion of money causes price inflation, so the authorities cut back on the money expansion, raising interest rates.

Higher interest rates and higher prices for real estate then reduce business profits, reducing the rate of increase in investment in new capital goods. Note that at first, investment is still expanding, but it expands at a slower rate. The negative rate of increase eventually makes growth negative also, and output falls. Rising interest rates increases mortgage payments, and as prices and equity no longer increase, those who can barely afford a house or condominium and bought with minimum payment plans have to sell. Rising unemployment also increases foreclosures. Real estate speculators switch to buying foreclosures at below-market rates and flipping them for quick sale to naive buyers who don't understand the real estate cycle.

At first, sales of residential real estate slow down, but owners stubbornly refuse to lower the price, so the inventory of unsold house rises. In California, where house prices have about doubled during the past 5 years, house sales have decreased 29 percent from October 2005 to 2006. Non-residential real estate construction is now also slowing down. While media attention is on residential real estate, commercial real estate is actually more important for the real estate cycle, as business investment in capital goods, including non-residential construction, drives the cycle as high real estate prices and higher interest rates make investment less profitable. We are now seeing a reduction in manufacturing, accompanied by factory shut downs. Non-residential construction fell in October 2006, while residential construction had already been falling.

Of course the data alone do not indicate a coming recession. Economic theory explains the cycle, and data can only be consistent with theory or not. So far, the data is consistent with the pattern of real estate cycles. Some economists and financial analysts say this slow down is only a "rough patch," and the economy will have a "soft landing." But the economy is not an airplane. The pattern is not a descent and landing, but a slow down in the rise, and then a plateau of real estate prices as sales slow down, and a deceleration of output followed by a decline or crash.

Others are predicting a recession already in 2007 because of the reduction in consumer spending from home equity loans. I believe the economy will not fall in 2007, because it takes time for high real estate prices to influence investment, and business investment is still growing. Much of the borrowing from homeowners has been to pay off consumer debt, so the net effect of household borrowing is not really that great, and much of the consumption has been of imports.

Fred Harrison in the U.K. has forecast a depression in 2010, but it seems to me that most likely it will come sooner, as indicated by the recent weakness in the U.S. industrial base. So I am sticking to the 2008 forecast which I have been making for over 10 years. Interestingly, 2008 will be an election year, and a recession would probably deliver the election to the Democratic party.

It is possible that the federal reserve will again lower interest rates or that the federal administration will increase borrowing and spending to postpone the recession into 2009. The U.S. economy has become so politicized that the monetary and fiscal authorities can alter the timing of the next recession, but they are nevertheless powerless to prevent it, as ultimately markets are more powerful than governments. Just as nature strikes back with disease when the laws of nutrition are flouted, the market strikes back with depression when economic policy is arrogant. Since nobody can really predict what the Fed will do a year from now, the exact year of the next depression cannot be forecast precisely, but based on past patterns, one can forecast the most likely year as 2008.

The business cycle is not caused by the private sector, but is a consequence of bad monetary and fiscal policy. Expansion and contractions of money and credit are intended to stimulate the economy when it's down and choke inflation during a boom, but by distorting interest rates and relative prices, they end up destabilizing the economy. Fiscal policy penalizes production and subsidizes land speculation, which combined with credit gyrations, induces speculative real estate booms followed by the decline. So only a radical shift -- to free-market money and tapping land values for public revenue -- will eliminate the cycle. Until this is done, we will just have to ride the economic stream down the next waterfall. You have been forewarned.

"by Fred E. Foldvary"

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PLEASE READ MY NEXT POST ON MY OPINION OF WHERE WE ARE IN THE REAL ESTATE CYCLE.

IS NOW THE TIME TO BUY?

Quite often Prickett Properties LLC gets Rave Reviews from our valued guests. We would like to take the opportunity to brag just a little bit by posting some of the reviews about our company and the Indies in Fort Morgan Al :

"Thank you so much for a great stay at the Indies! Our family loved the condo and the little red wagon was perfect for our kids. We had spectacular sunsets on the roof top terrace. We will be back next year!"

The Blackshear Family
Birmingham, Al

"We really enjoyed spending July 4th at your Indies condo. The condo was well-equipped and beautifully furnished. Tamala and Daniel were professional, friendly and provided lots of great information about the area. Thanks again."

The Wilson Family
Franklin, Tn

"We just returned from our stay at your Indies condo and wanted to take the opportunity to say Thank You! Our family had a wonderful time and fell in love with the Fort Morgan area. We had everything we could possibly need in the condo and wish we could have stayed another week. Great memories at the Indies. We will definitely be back next year"

The Rodgers Family
Ocean Springs, Ms

These were some very kind remarks from a few of our guests at the Indies in Gulf Shores/Fort Morgan. We hope that you will take the opportunity to visit our website at
www.GoToTheGulfCoast.com and make your next vacation at the Indies

Tamala and Daniel Prickett

Thanksgiving is over but we are still giving Thanks to all our vacationers!!!

Prickett Properties is offering 15% off all Holiday stays (valid through 1/1/2009)

There are some great places to stay at some killer prices:

For Example:

The Bella Luna

$546.00 total price for 3 nights! (Use promotional code "Holiday")

The Indies

$485.00 total price for 3 nights! (Use promotional code "Holiday")

You can view more properties and information at my website. Online Booking is available at this website!

http://www.gotothegulfcoast.com/rentals.cfm