Todd Barton

Investor often ask me what types of real estate investments are available on the market. Here's what we tell them.

This is the first of several postings on the topic.

Please offer comments - positive or negative!

Assignments. If you don't have much equity to work with, and/or if your credit power is limited, assignments can be a way to get started in real estate investing. You will need to have a strong "sales" personality to succeed at it, though.

Rental Condo or Rental Home. Purchase of a residential property to be rented out to tenants, usually on a 6-12 month lease term. This is how most new landlords get started. You can hire out all of the property management functions, but in many cases you will do many of them on your own. There are smaller down payment requirements than for larger rental buildings. The purchase process and financing process is very similar to what you experienced buying the home you live in now. It's a great way for beginners to get started.

Small (2-4 units) Apartment Building. Purchase of duplex, triplex or quadplex to be rented to tenants, usually for 6-12 month terms. Usually what the rental home / condo landlords graduate to. In most markets they cost a little more than a rental home, but are much more likely to cash flow on the average month. Less cash flow risk; if one unit is empty you have other tenants that still help you with the mortgage payment so it doesn't all come out of your pocket. Many owners will start to delegate some of the property management tasks to an on-site assistant (typically the most responsible tenant), such as yard maintenance and showing empty units. The financing process is only slightly more involved than a residential loan. Relatively small down payment requirements make it affordable. The purchase process is also very similar to purchasing a home. It's a good way for beginners to get started.

Large (5+ unit) Apartment Building. Still targeting tenants for 6-12 months at a time, buildings with more than five units are considered "commercial" property. The loans are more difficult to qualify for, and usually a larger down payment is needed. Uncommon for the new investor; this is usually what landlords with several years of experience "trade up" to. Cash flows on larger buildings are more stable than for smaller buildings, and the economies of scale make it practical (and desirable) to hire a property manager to take over most the work for you. This takes reduces the hassle factor of the landlord process.

Lease Options. Again you are seeking a tenant for a property, but usually for a slightly longer term (12-18 months) and frequently (though not always) with the goal that the tenant purchase the property from you at the end of the lease. If you purchase the property, then it's an easier process; if you find a highly motivated seller to let you re-lease the property to another tenant, it can be a lot of work to set up. However, the re-lease method doesn't require any cash out of pocket and does not rely on your credit score, so it is appealing to many investors. Great for beginners with the right skills and attitude.

Fix and Flips. Purchasing a home that needs work. The scope can range from the basic "paint and carpet" to extensive overhauls to scraping a decrepit property and completely starting over. Usually does not involve tenants, and the objective is to get in and out of the property as quickly as possible. Great for beginners with the right skill sets or the willingness to learn.

Conversion of Apartments into Condos. A synthesis of the fix and flip and rental operations - purchasing an apartment building in a neighborhood dominated by owner occupants, then converting the building from apartment building to condominium. Often requires renovation of the units to meet the expectations of owner-occupant buyers in that area. Complex and time consuming, but has wonderful tax advantages compares to fix and flips and often has superior returns to all other asset classes. Ideally suited for the sophisticated investor with extensive experience.

Scrapes, Pops and New Construction. Purchasing a small home in an expensive neighborhood that may or may not need work. The home is bulldozed and a new home or duplex is put on the lot. Alternatively, the existing home is renovated and more square footage is added on. A pop-top is adding a second story to an existing home to add more square footage (commonly, a master bedroom suite).

(c) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate

Take a look at the first page, for AUN (Aurora North). Note these positive market trends this year:
- number of active listings steadily declining
- average list price pretty stable (finally!)
- U/C up dramatically
- Number of sales / month up (partially seasonality)
- DOM dropping
- Stability in average sold prices and sold price as % of list
- Sold price as % original price UP a lot - banks are getting better at pricing
- Number of expired listings down

Every indicator is improving this year in AUN. You will see the same trends in DSW (southwest Denver County), but not as marked an improvement as AUN.

By contrast look at DSE (southeast Denver County).
- listings are up (they should be - seasonality)
- Note the average list price ($758,000) is a lot higher than the average sold price ($418,000). Lots of expensive listings brining up the average ask price, but apparently they are not selling
- DOM (Days on Market) declining as it normally would due to seasonality
- Average price declining rather rapidly. Probably a mix issue - smaller, cheaper homes are probably selling better.

Since these homes in DSE are pricier, it has more of an effect on the "average" sales price on metro Denver. Oddly, we could see improvement led by the cheapo neighborhoods, with the lux neighborhoods falling behind for a while. It will be interesting to watch.

(C) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate

The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006, from $309,000 to $317,000. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 2%, from $311,000. The average price of a foreclosure or short sale dropped in that time period -3% to $188,000. The average price of a non-distress sale increased 5% to $370,000. Sales volume over the last twelve months is off -4% for DSF/ASF. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up +31%; non-distress seller volume is off 20%.

Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in North Metro Denver. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from 2006 vs. 2007. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the number of homes that were sold.

There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales. In some neighborhoods you'll see dramatic price declines, largely due to the influence of a lot of bank foreclosures. This mainly occurs in less expensive neighborhoods, where the average home price is under $200K. In more expensive areas, a change in the mix of the types of homes sold can dramatically change the price increase or decrease. Also be aware that there are often multiple builders and/or subdivisions in a given "neighborhood". These stats are a lot more interesting than reporting on the average of the entire metro, but you still have to take some care in how they are interpreted!

Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data

(c) Copyright 2007, Your Castle Real Estate

Here's an analysis of what has happened with home prices in different suburbs around Denver Metro between Jan-May of 2007 and Jan-May 2008: The average home in Castle Rock didn't actually drop 17% in value. Instead, sales volume of the large, expensive homes (those over 4,000 square feet) plummeted 71%, while consumer instead bought many more mid-size homes in the 2,400 - 3,000 sq ft range. Here, sale volume increased 26%. The mix of selling fewer expensive luxury homes and selling many more affordable mid-market homes drove most of the sales price decline in Castle Rock. The average price of a mid-size home in the 1,800 - 2,400 square foot range declined only 1.7%. This is why it looks like home prices are declining in Denver - there are many factors at work.