Thomas Brewer

There are several reports due this week that could "plague" the markets and home loan rates. Tuesday will bring the wholesale inflation measuring Producer Price Index, as well as a read on the housing market via the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report. Go to www.tombrewerjr.com for more information.

Also, on Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed Report hits the wires. This monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware is one of the most-watched manufacturing reports, and it will be important to see if concerns about inflation have had an impact.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. The chart below shows how Bond prices moved sharply lower last week on inflation concerns, so stay tuned this week! If inflation continues to shake up the markets, Bond prices and home loan rates could have another troublesome week...but prices are at the same low levels they hit last year before starting to improve. Oftentimes, history repeats itself, and should Bonds receive some friendly economic news, it is likely they will gain back some of the ground recently lost.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise. Go to www.tombrewerjr.com for more information.

Economic Calendar for the Week of June 09 – June 13
Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Tue. June 10 08:30 Balance of Trade Apr -$59.5B -$58.2B Moderate
Wed. June 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 6/07 NA -4802K Moderate
Wed. June 11 02:00 Beige Book Moderate
Thu. June 12 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 6/07 371K 357K Moderate
Thu. June 12 08:30 Retail Sales May 0.6% -0.2% HIGH
Thu. June 12 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May 0.7% 0.5% HIGH
Fri. June 13 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) May 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
Fri. June 13 08:00 Consumer Price Index (CPI) May 0.5% 0.2% HIGH
Fri. June 13 08:30 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Jun 57.5 59.8 Moderate

So we know that employment numbers were the big movers and shakers for the financial markets and home loan rates last week. What's in store for the week ahead, and what could drive more market action?

Keep your eye out for the Retail Sales Report, which will be released on Thursday. The Retail Sales report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores, and changes in these numbers are closely followed as a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Recent numbers haven't been too bad - consumers seem to still keep spending away. But, will this week's report show that inflation and high oil prices are finally taking their toll on consumer pocketbooks? A strong Retail Sales Report would be good for the Stock market - which stands to reason, as it would indicate continued consumer confidence and dollars being poured into the economy. But a strong Retail Sales Report would be bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, which benefit from weak economic news.

Sure to be a market mover is Friday's Consumer Price Index report, which gives a read on inflation at the consumer level - that is, how much more expensive are goods and services this month over last month? CPI is a widely watched inflation indicator, and will definitely make headlines. Inflation tends to be bad news for both Stocks and Bonds, so if the report indicates inflation is heating up, this could cause Bond pricing and home loan rates to worsen in response. Go to www.tombrewerjr.com for more information.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. And as you can see in the chart below, Bonds were challenged to improve and break above a strong technical barrier at the 200-day Moving Average....only to end the week being forced below it once again. This is a very important "line in the sand," so I'll be watching closely this coming week - as always - to see if the news of the week will help Bonds break above this important barrier, or remain below it.