Melanie McLane

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and all across various social media sites, people are asking each other: “What are you thankful for?” Of course, top of our list is family, friends, faith and the ability to do what I love as a career. But we’re also thankful for the quality of life we enjoy here in Lycoming County, PA.

Jim and I travel to REALTOR® events, such as conventions; and I travel extensively to teach real estate courses. I just came back from Anaheim, where the National Association of REALTORS®’s Convention was held. I flew into LAX, and got to “enjoy” the trip to Anaheim (thankfully, I wasn’t driving!) along their 12 lane roads. Los Angeles is an extreme example, but other cities, although not as sprawling as LA, are equally congested.

We have a better qualify of life here in North Central Pennsylvania. We can literally ride our bicycles from our house to one of the best rail trails in the US. We have massive amounts of state land near where we live, free for use by hunters, hikers, snowmobilers, ATV riders, snowshoers, cross country skiers, bird watchers—what have you. We have streams and lakes available for kayaking, canoeing, swimming and fishing. The West Branch of the Susquehanna provides a place for motor boats, water skiing, and fishing. There are downhill ski slopes within half an hour’s drive, and cross country skiing on trails.

We know our neighbors by sight, if not by name. In some areas, a traffic jam is being behind a slow moving farm vehicle or an Amish buggy. Our land is fertile for the gardener, and there are farmer’s markets for those who prefer to just buy local produce. We look out our front door at a view of the mountains that never grows old.

Despite being rural, we are near world class medical centers, within 1 to 2 hours—Geisinger Medical Center, Hershey Medical Center. We have a Community Arts Center in Williamsport which brings in all kinds of entertainment. We may not have a Starbucks in our little town, but we have local spots where you get the news with your cup of Joe. We’re 3 hours from Philadelphia, New York or Washington DC, which is close enough, but not too close.

When we travel and see the lifestyles in other areas, we’re very thankful for the quality of life where we live. If it is time for you to trade the quality of life you have for the quality of life you would like, come see us!

Yesterday’s blog was about the increase in the average sales price in my home market of Jersey Shore A (small town, western Lycoming County, North Central PA, nowhere near the “shore”) from $107,000 in 2010 to $129,875 (let’s just call it $130,000) in 2011. That’s a 21% increase. Part of it is due to the Marcellus Shale industry, which is heavily impacting our market. Part of it (a small part) is normal appreciation. Despite the talking heads on TV, not all markets are overrun with foreclosures and short sales.

Even in markets not as robust as ours, buying power is in real danger of being eroded away—by rising interest rates. Interest rates have been historically low, and very low, for longer than any other time in my career (which is over 30 years). Here’s the math: borrowing $130,000 at 4.5% for 30 years requires a payment of $658.69—very affordable, and less than most rents in our area, again due to the gas industry. However, inflation is rearing its ugly head; the last time we had a lot of inflation, interest rates soared to 18% to 20%. They don’t even have to go up that dramatically to erode buying power. If rates rise only 2%, to $821.69 becomes the payment on that same $130,000 loan for 30 years. The rate has gone up 2%; the payment has gone up 25%.

In our market, if you are credit worthy and can buy now, you should do so. Rates will eventually go up; prices already are going up. For more information on market conditions, visit our website: www.MJacksonRe.com

Jersey Shore, PA (Lycoming County) is a small borough at the western end of Lycoming County. It's my hometown. NO, we are nowhere near New Jersey or the shore. Our county seat (Lycoming County) is Williamsport, PA. I'm the REALTOR(r) in my town with the greatest experience; our company, Jackson Real Estate, was founded by my late mother in 1961.

We are at the very end of 2011, so we now have a pretty good view of how the Jersey Shore, PA market is going to end for 2011. We analyzed the market from January 1, 2010 through November 15, 2010; and again from January 1, 2011 through November 15, 2011. The news is mixed; the dollar volume and units sold are both down from 2011. In 2010, the Jersey Shore market by November 15 was $26.7 million; by November 15, 2011 it is at $24.9 million.

Units sold to this date in 2010 were 185; units sold to this date in 2011 are 139.

Here’s the good news: the average sales price increased from $107,000 in 2010 to $129,875 in 2011. That’s encouraging news for sellers in our market. If you are thinking about selling, it may be the right time.

It's that magical two weeks we get here in Lycoming County, PA, specifically in South Williamsport, once a year, when the Little League World Series is played in Lamade Stadium. This event brings visitors from all over the world. I live in Lycoming County, southwest of Williamsport, in a little town called Jersey Shore--nowhere NEAR New Jersey or the shore...but that's the subject of another blog. First of all, if you are coming to my county for the Little League World Series--Welcome! I consider myself privileged to live in one of the most beautiful spots on earth (IMHO) Like most of Pennsylvania, Lycoming County has lots of farmland. We also have beautiful mountains, the West Branch of the Susquehanna River, and numerous streams, including the world famous Pine Creek. We don't usually have lots of people--our total population is under 130,000. In the rural townships, wildlife outnumbers human beings...and that's okay. You don't have to wait for the series to come here--but if you have, there's plenty to do. Bring your bicycle! If you don't have one, you can rent one, but in Jersey Shore (my hometown), 14 miles from Williamsport, is the terminus of one of the best Rail/Trails in the United States. It follows the Pine Creek Gorge north to Pennsylvania's Grand Canyon, in Wellsboro. Along the way, you'll see bald eagles (you bike or hike through one of their nesting areas), deer, bear, and yes, some of us have spotted mountain lions (despite assurances from DCNR that this animal no longer exists in PA). Bring your canoe, kayak, or flat bottomed boat. A wet summer has stream levels unusually high for August--so you can enjoy water sports--even if you just get an inner tube and float in one of our creeks. Trout fishing is pretty much over (water is too warm) but local fishermen are going for bass. If little boats scare you, take a ride on the Hiawatha Riverboat, which goes up and down the Susquehanna. Details are available at the Tourism Visitor's Center, located at 210 William Street, Williamsport, or by calling 1-800-358-9900. If you like to shop, just a little further west of Jersey Shore, in the Village of Woolrich is--you guessed it--the original Woolrich Store. Buy your "Pennsylvania Tuxedo" (a hunter's jacket and matching pants, in black and red plaid wool) or any of many other great items. We have some great restaurants--skip the chains and get the good local stuff. In Williamsport, I would recommend Franco's, on Fourth St., or the Bullfrog Brewery, also on Fourth St. In South Williamsport, don't miss the Bridge Tavern. If you venture up Pine Creek, try the Venture Inn, just above Jersey Shore on Route 44, or the Manor Hotel, in Slate Run, PA, off 414. There's also the Waterville Hotel, along 44 in Waterville. In my town of Jersey Shore, find the Tiadaughton Inn or Santino's Restaurant. For breakfast in Jersey Shore, nothing beats the Crest. If you are looking to find a getaway, check with our friends Gene and Irene Feerrar, who run Happy Acres Campground. It is more than a campground--they have fully furnished cottages to rent. Find them at www.happyacresresort.info and tell them Jim and Mel sent you. We have a saying here: "Once you get your feet wet in Pine Creek, you'll always come back!" My husband Jim, specializes in the Pine Creek Valley (I specialize in teaching REALTORS) To know about real estate in the valley, check out his web site, for up to date information on all the listings. Find him at www.pinecreekvalleyhomes.com. We hope to see you in our beautiful part of the world.

"Come and listen to my story ‘bout a man named Jed, poor mountaineer, barely kept his family

fed." I can't get the theme song from "The Beverly Hillbillies" out of my head these days. What's putting

it there is all the hoopla and activity in Lycoming County (and Tioga, as well) over natural gas. The gas

lease folks have been diligently tracking down owners of land, trying to sign them up for leases. There are

rumors of large ‘signing bonuses' and royalty payments in excess of 15%. It has made our once quiet

county courthouse Recorder's Office a hotbed of activity, and there are rumors Mrs. Annabel Miller, the

Recorder of Deeds, actually had to tell some of these folks how to behave. (!) New computer terminals

were added; and the title searchers who work there all the time mutter about books being misplaced,

some say on purpose. All the gas company representatives are looking for the same thing-parcels of

land, the larger the better, which still have gas and oil rights intact. That in and of itself is interesting-the

title searches go back 150 years for this stuff, and I am told that on several parcels, the rights have been

sold or leased more than once. Whoops!

Why here in north central PA? Well, we sit on Marcellus black shale, which runs from the southern

tier of New York into West Virginia. According an article online from Penn State University, the Marcellus

shale could (optimistically) contain 516 trillion cubic feet of gas. The other attractive part of the Marcellus

shale is that there are fractures in it. The fractures allow drillers to drill vertically, but then branch off

horizontally, and this is considerably cheaper ($800,000 versus $3 million), according to PSU geoscientist

Terry Engelder. The article I found you can read as well, at: http://live.psu/edu/story/28116.

The big news locally, and of interest to you and me, is what it is doing to our real estate market.

There are rumors on top of rumors about lease prices, sale prices, estimates of royalties, etc. I can

affirm that I know of two sales that were upset at the last minute by an owner deciding maybe he didn't

want to transfer those rights. A parcel priced for $190,000 one day jumped in asking price to $5 million

after an oil and gas company rep talked to the owner. So, owners are sitting tight, preferring to gamble on

the future value, rather than sell today. Yet a broker friend in the Northern Tier asked my husband a

good question: "Has anyone actually seen someone with a big check from a gas company yet?" I haven't

personally; yet some reliable people I know claim to have. Brokers and appraisers with a grain of sense

are refraining from trying to value these rights; just last week I appraised a 40 acre farm for an estate.

Thankfully, the decedent had already leased the mineral rights-but I had told the executrix going in: "I

don't value minerals, gas, oil, or timber."

Of course, we are all optimistic. We'd love to have several Jed Clampets right here in our

backyard. The Mr. Drysdales of the region would be thrilled-they already are. Local banks, local law firms,

local stock brokerage companies are all busy offering seminars about gas leasing and how to handle new

found wealth. The attorneys have taken a page from the REALTOR® playbook ("When the market

changes, find another niche") and some who last year were divorce or elder care or criminal experts, this

year are gas lease experts. A full scale gas exploration and pumping operation could pump gas out of the

ground and money into the local economy. One rumor says there are plans to build a pipeline from here

to New York City, employing 30,000 people at $35 per hour and up-and once the pipeline is there, it will

pump for 100 years! Who knows? I don't pretend to be a geologist. I do know as a REALTOR® and an

appraiser, that we can't begin to estimate the effect on value of these things until the dust settles. We

won't know the value of these rights, as it affects market value, until we can observe parcels sold with and

without the gas and oil rights. Another appraiser friend has done some research and tells me

Pennsylvania law regarding oil and gas rights is light years behind other states; that here in PA you could

actually have the gas pumped from under your land, by a well located on an adjacent parcel, and get little

or no compensation. If you have a large tract, and you haven't signed a lease, I would say: "Do your

homework." It appears that this situation is just continuing to snowball, so you probably would not lose by

waiting. There are some owners who signed leases last year for under $1000 an acre who are now

watching their neighbors sign leases for $2500 an acre. As in any market, timing is everything.