Tim Lorenz

I ran some data from the multiple listing service here in Orange County, California. I think you will find it interesting.

At the end of August and the begining of September 2007 we had over 17,000 properties for sale but only around 1,900 properties in escrow or under contract. That made a great buyer's market because there were few buyers and a lot of property. Prices dropped significantly from that point on. We know it got more and more difficult to get a loan (full documentation and FHA).

At the end of August and the begining of September 2008 there were 14,000 properties for sale but only around 4,200 homes in escrow or under contract. Note that the number of properties for sale was now down about 3,000 homes from the previous year. Then when we looked at the number of properties in escrow or under contract we saw the number grew by 2,300 more programs for the 1st time buyer and investors were out to take advantage of the deals. Prices were still dropping.

Now, this year. At the end of August and the begining of September of 2009 we had over 8,000 properties for sale and about 6,700 in escrow or under contract. Or if you will, in the past two years we are down more than 6,300 properties for sale in our market. We have 6,688 homes in escrow or under contract. That is a growth of over 4,400 properties sold. Wow in two years we have improved by 331%. Now that is success for an area, but the prices still go down. Great prices all over Orange County, which would include San Clemente, Mission Viejo, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, Dana Point...etc.

It is a great time to buy prices down and great interest rates contact us and we will help you find the right property for you. When we get to the same number of sales and the number of properties on the market for sale we will see the market turn upward (I believe).

A Birdseye View of Lake Mission Viejo

Well the end of summer is here and another great day. It is sunny here in Mission Viejo and slightly breezy the pool is at a perfect temperature and I have been swimming for a couple of hours. Yes, I is absolutely great to be alive.

I hope you are all enjoying your Labor Day and taking some time off and enjoying your families and friends. Remember all work and no play make you a dull person. Any way enjoy and then get back to work tomorrow. I will be teaching some of the agent at my office so I sure will get in early.

The statistics for the last 4 weeks are very interesting:

Mission Viejo shows alway as two Zip Codes in the 92691 area the median price dropped 18.8% and there were 51 sales which is down 7.3% in the past 4 weeks. In the 92692 area of Mission Viejo the median price went down 19.19% while 67 properties were sold which means the sales volume is up 34% in the past 4 weeks.

Laguna Niguel's median price was up 1.5% with 94 properties sold and and increase in the sales volume of 23.7% in the past 4 weeks.

Aliso Viejo's median price dropped 12.7% and there were 75 sales which means there was an 18.5% drop in the sales volume in the past 4 weeks.

Rancho Santa Margarita shows a drop in the median price of 10.1% with 71 homes sold and an increase of 2.9% in sales volume.

This indicates that the prices are still going down and the sales volume is still increasing. There are more first time buyers and investors in the area purchasing homes than traditional buyers.

This is a harsh sign that the market is still going down in Orange County the State Board of Equalization reported on a dramatic down turn in a key variable for municipal tax collection.

The total value of a property assessed by counties and the state fell 2.4 percent from the previous year. The State Board of Equalization has never in its entire existence seen a drop year over year since it started keeping records in 1933.

Orange County is down 1.4 percent while Southern California is down 2.4 percent. This must be put into context of the mortgage melt down. Too many families have been hurt in this problem. Are we looking for the ones responsible? This is the biggest ripoff of citizens and the world in real dollars and we do nothing to make anyone pay. Very interesting!

Many neighborhoods are showing more sales, there are more pending sales and the inventory is getting low. Normally these signs would be strong indications that the market is improving. What we actually are concerned about is the backlog of properties that are in default. The foreclosures continue at a very strong pace.

This causes us to wonder if we have hit a lull or if we have truly hit the bottom of the market. If the banks release all there inventory by foreclosing the market will tank. However, they cannot hold off forever. It is a difficult line that the banks on in this situation. Many have not paid mortgages for over 2 years and are still living in their homes. They have received a notice of default but the banks don't pull the string.

Many will not do a short sale on their property because when they do not have a housing expense they are pocketing the money others are desperate because they have lost there jobs or at least they do not have the income to support the current mortgage.