Thomas McCarey

Half a dozen of one, six of the other.

That might be the subtitle for the merging together of half of a box of a dozen frozen fish sticks found by an Ohio woman last week.

But instead of tossing the x-shaped trio on the frying pan, Victoria Landis tossed them on ebay where their Easter week appearance and Calvary Hill resemblance garnered a winning bid of just shy of $79.

When I first heard the report on Chicago's Newsradio 780 I thought to myself that how we place value on things is nearly mysterious.

Somebody somewhere some time Saturday received a styrofoam box chock full of dry ice surrounding three pairs of frozen fish sticks that very possibly reminds them of the holiest day of the Christian calendar. And to get it they plunked down $78.77 at a time when consumers are spending less and less in grocery stores and big box stores, department stores and retail stores.

I thought of the fish sticks again Saturday as I showed a new East Village condo listing to a young man and his father. More and more lately idle chit chat during showings has been replaced by what seems to be a gnawing sense of entitlement by prospective buyers as they ask one of two questions -

• How long has this been on the market?
• How motivated is the seller?

On Saturday the buyer's dad went a step further when he replaced "motivated" with "desperate."

"Desperation," I replied, "doesn't accurately describe this client or any of my clients."

One of the glorious misperceptions of the current real estate market is the sentiment by buyers that sellers not only will take any offer presented but that they will be obsequiously grateful to receive it. The underpinnings of this sentiment smack a bit too much like the philosophy of the Marquis de Sade for my tastes.

The reality of the current market (as I see it from the listing side) mixes the following factors -

• properly priced properties sell
• even with proper pricing we can expect lengthier market times
• even with proper pricing we can expect low, possibly unrealistic, offers
• be patient to sell properly priced properties

Not to unfairly saddle Saturday's dad as guilty of making an intemperate remark - there are desperate souls trying to sell their homes. But the common traits of these unfortunate folks include that they perhaps bought too high, that their adjustable rate adjusted (and multiplied their monthly payment), perhaps they took out a home equity line and now their home is not worth as much (leaving them to make an inflated monthly payment), perhaps they have lost work as the Bush economic plan continues to bear fruit.

And while a front page Sunday article in the New York Times recounted how people are taking bartering into the realm of big box stores I paid my full tab at Charlie's Ale House on Clark Street in Andersonville Saturday afternoon and for a couple of cigars later in the day at Up Down Tobacco on Wells Street in Old Town and for Easter brunch with my family on Michigan Avenue in the Gold Coast.

But I digress. Sure it's no secret that there is desperation on the listing side. But across the board my resale clients - whether in Lakeview, the Ukrainian Village, the East Village, West Town, or Wrigleyville - are selling their current homes simply to enable them to move toward their next home purchase.

In each instance we listed the home after establishing its fair market value and recognizing that we could expect increased marketing time.

I guess what it boils down to is the fact that each of my clients would like to sell but none of them NEEDS to sell. Conversely, I suspect that each of the showings I have conducted at each of my listings has presented prospective buyers who would like to buy but perhaps DO NOT NEED to buy.

What I remember from Econ 101 is that this then is the market. All we need now is for reason to prevail between the two sides. If the past is any indication, we have grounds for optimism.

After all a woman in Ohio just sold three frozen pairs of fish sticks for nearly $80. You don't even want to know how that is per square foot.

The Chicago real estate market today? I can't help but think of Mark Twain's quote, "Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated."

Yesterday my clients finalized negotiations of an offer for their home in West Town. Listed in the upper six figures, this residence attracted the prospective buyers back for three showings before they made a strong initial offer that needed minimal back and forth to satisfy both parties. And so we proceed.

The next step in this process is for the buyers to have the home inspected during the five-day review period while they set about getting underwriting for their 80% loan. I am not sure whether or not media coverage of the mortgage meltdown inspired these buyers to cross their t's and dot their i's before setting off on their search but they had their paperwork in order before making their offer with a substantiated pre-approval relative to the agreed upon purchase price.

So while nobody in their right mind would claim that things are robust in Chicago, the truth of the matter is that single family homes and condominiums are selling. Time on the market has increased which I ascribe to several factors

• buyers with homes to sell are waiting until they sell to buy
• the general state of the economy has resulted in increased consumer trepidation
• the state of the mortgage market has tightened lending standards
• there is a tremendous amount of inventory available, and
• some consumers are taking the idea of a "buyer's market" to extremes with unreasonably low offers

In certain respects the real estate market resembles the physical health of Chicagoans like myself who belong to a health club. And though I don't work out every day, I work out enough to be in good shape (just like I perceive the market). I tout enough weights, do enough cardio and apply the general principles of yoga enough to be in reasonably good shape. And like the real estate market, I too have a longer market time than I used to.

To gain physical proof today that "rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated" I invite you to join me at the two open houses I am hosting:

2043 West Fletcher
11.30-1.30
Roscoe Village New Construction Extra Wide SFH
$1.599MM

2706 North Mildred
2p-4p
Lincoln Park Masterpiece SFH
$2.895MM

And my listing in Lakeview will be open this afternoon as well with Cindy Clarke

726 West Addison, #3
Noon-2p
Lakeview Fully Rehabbed Penthouse Condo
$439,900

Two-thirds of the way through February and here in Chicago we seem no closer to the end of the season.

Just two weeks ago the furry critter made famous in Bill Murray's movie "Groundhog Day" popped out his hole, saw his shadow, and thereby inflicted upon us an additional six weeks of winter.

Oh Punxsutawney Phil , say it ain't so!

Alas, the single digit temperature earlier this evening as my wife and two sons headed out toa dinner had me contemplating a single digit salute to Mother Nature from Chicago's Edgewater neighborhood. But discretion reigned supreme and I merely I gritted my teeth against the chill as I hoisted the double stroller into the back of the 4-Runner.

A lot of folks around Chicago are gritting their teeth this time of year, not the least of whom are those with their homes on the market. While T.S. Eliot inscribed "April is the cruelest month" in "The Wasteland" people in Chicago may disagree and nominate February because unmelting slabs of snow and non-yielding sheets of ice punctuate an inescapable sense of wintry hopelessness. In real estate parlance this means that showings are down.

Blame it on the weather (an easy and logical target) or credit the Bush Administration's seven and a half year adventure without a semblance of an economic plan or chalk it up to wavering consumer confidence. Whatever the reason and whatever explanation you feel comfortable proffering, showings are down which translates into fewer contracts which means even fewer contracts because people with unsold homes themselves typically are not of a mind to sign contracts to purchase new homes.

And so it goes...

With one more week in this seemingly forsaken month we contemplate March and the possibility of hope. For then at least green shoots can fuse forth from the dormant soil and give rise to the sense of a seasonal shift and warming. If nothing else, the mercury may rise and enable going from the cocoon of one's car to the front door of what might be your new home without the risk of frostbite or having to hopscotch ice patches and snow drifts.

Don't get me wrong. Situated here on the front line of the Chicago real estate market with listings from Lakeview to Bucktown, from Edgewater to the East Village, from Lincoln Square to Wicker Park, from Andersonville to the Ukrainian Village, from Roscoe Village to Wrigleyville, I am showing properties that people are buying.

But I also am showing properties that people are not buying. And of course the properties that I am not showing... well, they remain unsold.

But if I might pontificate for one moment. It's no secret that there are many more listings now on the market. But one constant that some lookers overlook is this - at any given time at any given price point the Chicago market will provide you with between five and seven places of significance that a) merit your attention (and possible affection) and b) may inspire you to make an offer.

While this statement may seem cavalier, it is nothing more than personal experience steeped in assisting many buying clients the past ten years with purchases of single family homes, condos, and multi-units.

At the end of the day the process of searching for a home is relatively simple - it is a form of courtship where you are either looking to fall in love or at the very least (if you're not the passionate type) you're looking for something that makes a lot of sense.

The one way that today's market differs from others I have experienced is that more than a handful of buyers are neither looking to fall in love nor are they looking for something profoundly sensible. Instead they don't seem they will be happy unless they find a steal.

Whether it's a foreclosure or a short-sale or securing a property at 90% or less than asking price, these consumers appear single-minded not in terms of finding fair value, but in terms of finding a steal. Ironically some of these "steal seekers" have admitted to me that they have been looking for upwards of a year while others have made reference to repeated spurned offers.

And so it goes...

Mired in the grasp of this tired, cold month we know in the back of our minds that March is in the wings and with it the possibility of change. And rather than contemplating a profane single digit salute against frigid cold as was the case earlier tonight I see in the cards delivering an affable single digit thumbs up to signify that the scenario has become rosier.

If Phil is to be believed the six weeks of winter he presaged concludes March 15th. I've got the date circled on my calendar (not an easy thing to do with a Blackberry). And should the chill persist, at least the Blackberry can provide a bit of heat after inserting it into the fireplace.

Cold? Yep.

It's that time in the Chicago winter when the allure of snow has faded and been replaced by a simmering discontentedness.

As the mercury vacillated in the past several days above and below freezing, finally settling on the negative side of the freezing level, what we have here in Chicago is a mass of rigid streets with icy ruts that have emerged as something akin to rail lines. The problem is, though, that when you are on the wrong side of these "tracks," good luck urging your vehicle over the ridge to gain entry to the rut to head to your destination.

In other words, you may have to leave your car parked where it is and stay at home.

Not a bad idea on such a frigid day. But as soon as I finish this post I will head out the door to my afternoon open house. Fortunately my four wheel drive is nestled in the garage. Unfortunately the alley behind my garage is coated with about six inches of industrial strength ice. At this point only lava would make headway on such a gathering of frozen molecules. But my fierce determination to keep my commitment and meet and greet those disparate souls who will attend today's open at 2214 West Cullom in Lincoln Square will see me over this specific and literal hump.

Amid these icy climes I was so glad to hear from my friends and clients George and Carrie. They dropped me a line Friday which I include below -

When we were looking to buy a new home, and sell an old one, we were fortunate to meet Tom McCarey. He's a straight shooter whose deep knowledge of the Chicago real estate scene and tireless work on our behalf ensured that we were able to obtain fair value for both properties. His extensive experience, able analysis and visible integrity instantly inspired our confidence. He works hard to understand the needs of his clients, so that he can better represent their interests. He's also a terrific person whose friendship we still appreciate. We wouldn't hesitate to recommend him to anyone who needs an outstanding real estate professional on their side.

George and Carrie, Purchased a New Construction SFH in East Village and Sold Lincoln Park Townhome

Nice! Certainly enough to spark warmth on this desperately cold day.

And maybe enough to catalyze an email or phone call from you or someone you know when it's time to buy or sell a home in Chicago.

By the way, feel free to join me at today's open house - I will be there from 2p-4p. The home is a new construction residence just south of Montrose and east of Western. Drive around this area and you will see a bunch of newly built and fully rehabbed homes.

Talk with you soon.

• A rebate of up to $600 would go to single filers making less than $75,000.
• Couples making less than $150,000 would receive rebates of up to $1,200.
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"Payments will be largely completed this summer, putting cash in the hands of millions of Americans at a time when our economy is experiencing slower growth."

• Pay down debt: 47 percent
• Save it: 32 percent
• Spend it: 21 percent

In December, revolving debt — an estimated 95 percent from credit cards — reached a record high of $943.5 billion, according to the Federal Reserve. The annual growth rate of this debt increased steadily in 2007, reaching 9.3 percent in the last quarter, up from 5.4 percent in the first quarter. The amount of debt that is delinquent — in which minimum payments are late but the accounts are still open — also appears to be on the rise. The Federal Reserve found that 4.34 percent of the credit card portfolios of the 100 largest banks that issue cards was delinquent in the third quarter of last year, up from 4.07 percent in the previous quarter. Charge-offs — accounts closed for nonpayment — also grew in that period, and banks expect charge-offs to keep rising in 2008.