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Tim Moncrief

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Ready for the DOUBLE DIP RECESSION???

10-05-09
Tim Moncrief

Mixed reactions from the River North Area of Austin Texas.  The number of homes on the market continued its downward trend with a reduction of 7% from last year; though, closings were down 6% from last September.  It is pretty tough to make any assumptions based on one month, but the reduction in closings is a red flag that needs to be watched.  Last October we saw the implosion of the financial markets that took a major toll in the closings in November through this past May.  If the market is beginning a recovery we should see substantial closing increases during these same upcoming months.

The fear that still resides is the possibility of a double dip recession, whereby the market makes a modest stabilization, and then takes a second fall.  What I am watching closely is the lagging indicator of unemployment numbers.  Though it is a lagging indicator, it does help give one an idea of the direction in which the country or area HAS been going.  At this time we are not seeing any positive change in unemployment numbers and this will remain a concern.

I, nor any economist, can not accurately predict where an economy is going as it is virtually impossible to predict global human behavior from BILLIONS of people.  Bottom line is that we need to see job growth before we can see a serious recovery.  At this point the stock market and real estate market are improving and that is very good news.  The question arises as to whether this will continue, or will job creation start in the upcoming months and we will see stronger growth, or will we see a double dip recession and see a reversal of our improved economy.   So far, optimism remains good; and, optimism can create positive movement, as pessimism can create negative movement.

So the advice I can give is to pass on optimism.  It is contagious.

For a detailed report   C L I C K   H E R E ! ! !  

River North Area sales averages about $516,000 per home and includes, BUT is not limited to, the following communities:

  • River Place on Lake Austin
  • Steiner Ranch
  • Westminster Glen
  • Villa Montana
  • Grandview Hills/The Parke
  • Glenlake Estates/River Pointe
  • Long Canyon
  • Greenshores
  • Shepherd Mountain
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Spotlight Austin: A recap

09-14-09
Tim Moncrief

Fantastic turn out at this month's SPOTLIGHT AUSTIN by Patten Law Firm of Austin. Thank you sooooo much Patten for allowing me to be a part of the panel to help point a few in the right direction.

A few pointers I passed on to others for a few questions presented:

  1. How are your adapting to the shifting market: I said that I actually love markets like this as it allows one to truly find out what is working for them in building their business and what is not. Sure we cut costs, but only on items that we were not positive were not working. We actually increased our budget on marketing items that were working. Sure it hurts, but we are learning from it. Having been through several down turns we actually planned on this downturn market 5 years ago in developing our business model. Thus we were able to adapt better than many.
  2. Where do you think this market is going in the next 6-18 months based on the number of projected foreclosures and increasing number of 3 year arms hitting our market in the next 2 years (Ouch, powerful questions): I said all depends on job creation. The more job creation that we see in the coming years, the better the market will be able to absorb any future foreclosures. I said I don't want to be negative, but without job creation, the market can not absorb the upcoming foreclosures and projected foreclosures. But, I am optimistic.
  3. Do you see a major impact of commercial buildings and retail centers failing having an impact on your market? No! I told the audience that in any down market commercial activity is going to be hit very hard. It is up to the agents to educate the public that location, location, location will, in time, bring the commercial back. Our group does an excellent job of educating the public and all realize that with the location that we farm, our area is safe. Another agent (Tosca) jumped in and added the impact of the premium schools will outweigh the failing of a new retail or office building.

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Not Enough Business??? Pick up the FRIGGIN' phone! (From HGTV)

09-14-09
Tim Moncrief
If you are in any business, whether it be real estate or any other business, pick up the friggin' phone!!! Over the past 10 years we have drifted away from THE PHONE into any other means of contacting a client, save face to face or on the phone. We will text people, we will email people, and lately, we will FACEBOOK people. What happened to the phone? We all have one or two.....so why don't we use it.

I was watching HGTV's The Property Shop last week. (Love the show) The broker had a high profile fashion model that she was showing condos to. The model was very specific on what she wanted, and that she wanted to buy and close the next week. The broker showed here several condo complexes and the model would not even get out of the car. "I hate it" was the common phrase on each. The broker was very frustrated that the model would not even go inside the condo complex. Heck, the model hated it, I would not go in either.

The last condo building the broker drove to, the model said "I love it". The broker said that there are no condos on the market that have the number of bedrooms you are looking for. So the model became frustrated and demanded to go home. The broker asked if she would even look at the smaller bedroom condos. The model said "you are not listening to me, I want a 4 bedroom". The model would not even go into the building. (Thumbs up for the model) The broker was quite frustrated and went to her assistant and told her about her frustrations. The assistant reminded the broker that there were condos with the number of bedrooms that the model wants that were built in the building.

The broker said that may be true, but there are none on the market. So the assistant said, get on the phone and see if any one wants to sell. The broker said that she is running a real estate business and she is not running a cold call company. The assistant said "welcome to real estate 101". The broker got on the phone and called and found someone who would sell, and made the deal happen.

Are you not getting enough business?

Pick up the friggin' phone..........
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Real Estate Sales in Austin, RN: 3rd Best August in 7 years!!

09-06-09
Tim Moncrief
GREAT REAL ESTATE NEWS: The River North Area of Austin had its 3rd best closings for an August over the last 7 years.  In a market like we have been involved in, this is a wonderful statement to write to you.  Moreover, home inventory up to the $600,000's are now in or entering a "normal" market with less than 8 months of inventory (MOI).  (Months of Inventory is the amount of months that it would take to sell the existing listings with no additional homes on the market.  Most economist believe that 4-6 months is normal but the RN area has historically been a tad above 6 months of inventory even in good years; ED economic market.  Until we see actual job growth, this sector should remain as the best buy sector.  Thus, if one can make the jump into this sector, long term potential looks phenomenal.

Here are a few key points of interest:
  • River Place sales are back to normal levels and inventory is nearing a 15 year low set last year
  • Steiner Ranch sales were up a staggering 33% from last August with inventory down a staggering 23% (HUGE NEWS)
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Tips on succeeding as an INTROVERT...... from an INTROVERT

08-30-09
Tim Moncrief
Just a few tips from an INTROVERT on how I was able to pull this real estate career off as an EXTROVERT.

Those who know me outside the real estate industry know me a very shy introvert who would rather be alone than in a crowd of people.  My best friend calls me "THE WALKING DEAD".  That is just me.  Some outside of real estate may think I am moody.....some may think I am stuck on myself.....and some say I am the walking dead.  In reality, I am just a quiet guy suffering severe chronic pain (just maybe another blog on tuning out severe pain) that listens very well and will throw in my two cents if no one has a good idea.  This has been me for my entire life outside of real estate.

Those that know me in real estate will probably not believe the upper paragraph, and those that know me outside of real estate will have a hard time believing what I will write below.

So when I got into real estate in 1982, I realized that I had this personality challenge that I had to overcome or I would have little chance of success in this business.  So here is how one person pulled it off.

A few years earlier (1979) a movie came out called "All that Jazz" with Roy Scheider.  A line that was repeated over and over was "IT'S SHOW TIME FOLKS".  This is a common line to get actors use to both get over the butterflies and get them into their mindset of their role.  i.e. I am not Roy Scheider, I am Joe Gideon (the character).  So from day one I stole a portion of that line.  I would and still wake up today and say either vocally or in my head, "IT'S SHOW TIME".  From that second on, my real estate face and extroverted personality kicks in and the old Tim Moncrief stays behind. I really feel I become a different human being and that there is no obstacle I can not conquer.  Oddly the joke in the real estate community is that I am the one that won't shut up.

I go on listing appointment that most agents spend 30 minutes to an hour; and I spend 2-3 hours.  Maybe the clients are just worn our and they throw in the towel and say "OK, where do we sign?  

With one company I worked with, there was a contest for the best presentation by and agent from a secret shopper.  For those that do not know a secret shopper is hired by a company and has a hidden video camera on, and you make your presentation to them or show properties to them.  So the agent has no clue if who they are talking to is a client or a shopper.  Most companies give a time line and this company gave us a 4 month time line in which this shopping was to occur. The purpose is to improve your skills and to make sure you are not saying anything you should not.  The non-Realtor Tim Moncrief said to himself, "I have no chance, as there are 30 something agents and I can see half of them with more outgoing atypical "salesperson" personalities. At the end of the contest they announced that the winner was me.  Huh?  Shy Tim Moncrief.  I really was baffled.  So I went to the manager and asked them how in the world did I win this contest.  My manager said, "Tim, the shoppers' videos of the 30+ agents ran from a low of 6 minute to a high of 45 minutes with one exception, you.  Your presentation lasted nearly 2 hours.  There was no one even close to you in the contest".  I say that not to brag (well maybe a little), but to show you the power of mindset if you tell your mind where you want it to be.

I tell my mind that I am a top producing agent and put on my game face nearly every day (yes, there are a few days, I forget to say "It's Show time").  But, at the end of the day, the show is over, and Tim Moncrief comes back and goes back into his shell.  For me, this is not an event that I have to do from time to time, it is everyday.  So over the years, I have developed little mind tricks to pull me out of my shell and become an outgoing successful extroverted agent.

LISTING PRESENTATIONS:   My assumption is that I am going to get the listing....bottom line.  I don't care who is competing against me and I never ask.  When I do lose a listing, I am totally shocked and tend to fall back into the non-real estate Tim Moncrief.  Was I the real Tim Moncrief or Tim Moncrief the Realtor (and my neighborhood nicknamed me "the mayor of River Place")?  Then I put my Realtor hat on and analyze, did I do anything wrong?  Now this will sound very arrogant, but in most cases I would not have changed my presentation.  Like an actor, I made the best presentation I can do and it just may not be the right fit for that movie; but sometimes actors do get kicked out of their part!  So when I do lose, I just wait for that part to pop back up again.

OPEN HOUSES: Not only do I say "it's show time" before the day starts, but I also say it when someone comes in the door.  Here is my little trick that works every time.  Yes, every time.  I pretend that the person walking in the door is coming back for the second time; and, I also pretend that this home is my home, not my clients.   Thus, ask yourself, how would you treat someone that came to your home for the second time? Think about that one for awhile.  The biggest compliment I can get is if a client gives me this odd stare and says "have we met before?"  When that happens, I know have accomplished what I have intended.

BUYERS:  I treat buyers the very same way as I do OPEN HOUSES.  Again I pretend that we have met before; but instead of showing them my home, I am just showing them around my neighborhood.  It is an easy mindset if it is your neighborhood, but a bit tougher if it is not.  Again, if the client asks if I live in a given neighborhood (that is not mine), I know I have accomplished my goal.

THE PROCESS:  The process would be from the listing period to closing and thereafter.  First of all my mindset is that I already knew these people to begin with, so the process becomes quite easy for me.  How would you treat your friends in the process?   Or perhaps said a bit differently, would you treat your friends and your clients any differently during the process?  If so, why?

These are but a few categories without making a book of this post.  The bottom line is MINDSET.  You are to a great degree what you are and where you are in your life by what you think what you are and where you are.  Thus all you have to do is to change your thoughts of what you are and where you are at in your life.  It sounds simple...and it actually is.  It merely is a daily commitment of telling your mind what you are and where you want to be.  This is not acting, this is directing your mind to where you want it to go.  So all you have to do is do it.  Sadly most don't.

Most wake up everyday and think of all of the negatives about themselves and about the market and about everyone else. We all think this a times.  So all you need to do is to flip that switch and take on the day.

IT'S SHOW TIME, FOLKS..........
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