Tom Lyons

Tom Lyons-Real Estate Expertise

925-216-1105

realestate@tomlyons.com

18 Years of experience in Tri Valley Real Estate

The Lyons Tri Valley Real Estate Report

June 2009

Year / Volume #3-Issue #23

Hi Everyone! In April / May 2009 real estate sales have picked up considerably, here in the East Bay of California, and across the nation. Most attribute this to the Obama Housing Stimulus Plan taking hold. The facts presented on page 3 of this report will support this. Here are a couple of articles which detail this.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090504/ap_on_bi_ge/us_pending_home_sales;_ylt=AspEiiU_B1NWvYzJoWAwC33s.6F4;_ylu=X3oDMTJvbDMwNGgyBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkwNTA0L3VzX3BlbmRpbmdfaG9tZV9zYWxlcwRjcG9zAzQEcG9zAzQEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNwZW5kaW5naG9tZXM-

Another story on recent good real estate news:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090504/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/us_wall_street;_ylt=Ahl0zqYKMeT5WhIY36XJ1PWyBhIF

In April and May of 2009 there has been plenty of good news for real estate. We have information on the new $8,000.00 tax credit for first time buyers. Here is the link. http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/home2.html

Since this first time buyer credit was announced in Feb. 2009 many local buyers have taken advantage of this. You'll see this from the sales facts presented later in this report.

Federal Reserve Board chairman Bernanke also got on the stronger economic bandwagon recently with this article.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090505/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke;_ylt=AkJAnbGdO39xK3NGwBXiJYayBhIF

The economy, as a whole, appears to be improving, which is a wonderful sign for our local housing market. More recent articles that help are:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090513/pl_afp/financeeconomyusbanking;_ylt=AjaMh80qqhLU6MU1oHhYD5CyBhIF

However, since major banks had a moratorium on foreclosures for the first quarter of 2009, and since that moratorium recently ended, we're expecting a lot of bank owned foreclosures, or REO's to hit our local market for the remainder of the year. Banks, however, are actively trying to reduce the number of foreclosures, by either doing owner loan modifications or short sales. It will be interesting to watch just how many foreclosures hit the market for the balance of 2009 .... And what impact they will have on our local market and local real estate prices. Here is more info:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090513/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates;_ylt=ArvUrGu8L1r3kKpUq5zQs9kDW7oF

On 5/15/09 the Obama administration approved new rules on short sales in an effort to reduce the number of foreclosed homes hitting the market. Here is up-to-date information on short sales.

http://tomlyons.yourkwagent.com/atj/user/AdditionalGetAction.do?pageId=171325

Here's a recap of important definitions. Pay attention to the months supply figures ..... Which is described here and shown on page 3. These lower months supply on houses, for June 2009, is important information.

Houses sell for current market value which is described as what buyers have paid recently for similar homes. The prices of houses go up and down strictly based on current supply and demand statistics; supply being how many houses are available for sale, demand being how many houses have sold in a given period of time. All other economic factors ... such as interest rate changes, economic conditions in the area, job creation, unemployment, etc., directly affect supply and demand. By looking at supply and demand statistics you can determine where houses prices currently are at.... and where they will be going in the future.

4 months supply of houses is considered a balanced market. Less than 4 months supply is considered a sellers market; prices go up in a sellers market. More than 4 months supply of houses is considered a buyers market; house prices go down in a buyers market. The less supply of houses available, say 1-2 months supply ... house prices may go up 10-15% per year. Eager buyers bid the prices up and market value rises. When you have a large supply of available houses, say 8-10 months supply, house prices can go down 10% per year. Prices go down because sellers who must sell reduce their asking price until they get a good contract. These lower sales prices then set the new standard for comparables and current market value goes down.

Quite a few important changes for our local market in April and May of 2009. First, pending house sales are up substantially. In March 2009 pending sales were up in the lower price ranges in our area as first time homebuyers and investors dominated the market. For April / May pending sales are up across most price ranges. This is an good sign which shows that low interest rates, low home prices, and increased buyer demand are taking effect and helping our local real estate market. Right now, in the lower price ranges across the valley .... There is little or no inventory. But there are plenty of buyers waiting to buy a house ..... They just can't find one to buy!! This scenario has not happened in out local market since mid 2005!! Pending sales across our middle price ranges ... in the $500-$750K price ranges was strong in April / May.

In a normal market and normal economy the current inventory levels, months supply of homes, would mean that house prices would be going up, or appreciating!! But, with a new round of foreclosures due to hit the market in the second half of 2009, it remains to be seen how the banks will price these .... and what effect they will have on appreciation / depreciation of our local home prices.

One thing is certain though, and that is that our local housing market has turned the corner and is on the road to recovery.

Area Houses Pending Months

Available last 30 Supply

Livermore

$200-$500K 102 53 1.9

$500-$750K 52 26 2.0

$750-$1M 45 8 5.6

$1M+ 40 3 13.3

Pleasanton

$300-$750K 105 62 1.7

$750-$1M 40 11 3.6

$1M-$1.5M 51 6 8.5

$1.5M+ 62 8 7.8

Dublin

$200-$500K 47 49 .96

$500-$750K 37 22 1.7

$750- $1M 18 14 1.3

$1M+ 2 1 2.0

San Ramon

$300-$750K 118 81 1.5

$750-$1M 66 26 2.5

$1M-$1.5M 39 10 3.9

$1.5M+ 13 1 13.0

Danville

$300-$750K 59 31 1.9

$750-$1M 65 18 3.6

$1M-$1.5M 51 9 5.7

$1.5M+ 58 4 14.5

For your convenience, when months supply is less than 3 months, it is highlighted. This indicates a shortage of house inventory, an area where house prices could start going up!

As the facts show, entry level houses are selling very well. First time buyers and investors are out there purchasing. Low prices and low interest rates, plus tax and income tax credits now make it more affordable to own than to rent.

The Lyons Real Estate Report is distributed monthly to approx. 950 households in the Tri Valley area. If you'd like to receive this report monthly, or if you'd like to unsubscribe, please send me an email.

Thanks!

Tom

Tom Lyons-Real Estate Expertise

925-216-1105

realestate@tomlyons.com

18 Years of experience in Tri Valley Real Estate

The Lyons Tri Valley Real Estate Report

April 2009

Year / Volume #3-Issue #22

Hi Everyone!

This past month there has been plenty of good news for real estate. First, we have information on the new $8,000.00 tax credit for first time buyers. Here is the link.

#http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/home2.html

Since this first time buyer credit was announced in Feb. 2009 many local buyers have taken advantage of this. You'll see this from the sales facts presented later in this report.

Two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve Board announced plans to revive housing and drive down interest rates. Here is that info.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090318/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates;_ylt=Ak.WWpWFLklk.Fs999LXB2yyBhIF

More on lower interest rates here ...

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx

Within a couple of days interest rates were driven down anywhere from .25% to .50%. Interest rates on conforming purchase loans are currently as low as 4.375%. Almost overnight refi activity boomed. Which was followed, a week later, by a sharp increase in pending home sales. Here is the information on recent sales activity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20090318/bs_bw/mar2009pi20090317234205;_ylt=AkiaQJ_weUkUjwxflePPmbmyBhIF

And more house sales info ...

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090319.aspx

On 3/22/2009 the Dow Jones Industrial average shot up nearly 500 points on good information in the housing market. Here is that link.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090323/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AoYfucrzYioSiDAlae07BymyBhIF

All of the new government policies are beginning to help our housing situation. Please read on for more news.

Here's a recap of important definitions. Pay attention to the months supply figures ..... Which are described here and shown on page 3. These lower months supply on houses, for April 2009, is important information.

Houses sell for current market value which is described as what buyers have paid recently for similar homes. The prices of houses go up and down strictly based on current supply and demand statistics; supply being how many houses are available for sale, demand being how many houses have sold in a given period of time. All other economic factors ... such as interest rate changes, economic conditions in the area, job creation, unemployment, etc., directly affect supply and demand. By looking at supply and demand statistics you can determine where houses prices currently are at.... and where they will be going in the future.

4 months supply of houses is considered a balanced market. Less than 4 months supply is considered a sellers market; prices go up in a sellers market. More than 4 months supply of houses is considered a buyers market; house prices go down in a buyers market. The less supply of houses available, say 1-2 months supply ... house prices may go up 10-15% per year. Eager buyers bid the prices up and market value rises. When you have a large supply of available houses, say 8-10 months supply, house prices can go down 10% per year. Prices go down because sellers who must sell reduce their asking price until they get a good contract. These lower sales prices then set the new standard for comparables and current market value goes down.

There have been a couple of big changes for April 2009. Sales on lower priced houses have gone through the roof. You'll see low months supply figures on the next page. (Highlighted) Low house prices, coupled with low interest rates is jump starting house sales in the Tri Valley. However, most people won't get this important news for 60 days. 60 days from now, is when these current closings will be reported on TV, papers, and the Internet. We are in the beginning of the cycle where good news on housing will start to be reported.

Couple this information with the fact that foreclosures will probably be on the decline in 2009. Major banks will now modify clients loans in lieu of foreclosing. This means fewer foreclosures in 2009. Fewer foreclosures = less inventory = more stable home prices. Housing, in our area, is beginning to turn the corner and start on the road of recovery. Available house inventory, for 4/09, is down almost 20% from the previous year!!

More importantly, this news means that house prices will bottom out and start to recover in 2009.

Area Houses Pending Months

Available last 30 Supply

Livermore

$200-$500K 132 78 1.7

$500-$750K 63 21 3.0

$750-$1M 45 8 5.6

$1M+ 46 1 46.0

Pleasanton

$300-$750K 118 25 4.7

$750-$1M 40 5 8.0

$1M-$1.5M 51 10 5.1

$1.5M+ 58 5 11.6

Dublin

$200-$500K 76 36 2.1

$500-$750K 50 14 3.6

$750- $1M 26 8 3.3

$1M+ 8 0 0.0

San Ramon

$300-$750K 166 54 3.1

$750-$1M 95 15 6.3

$1M-$1.5M 52 9 5.8

$1.5M+ 12 1 12.0

Danville

$300-$750K 88 20 4.4

$750-$1M 57 14 4.1

$1M-$1.5M 43 3 14.3

$1.5M+ 51 1 51.0

As the facts show, entry level houses are selling very well. First time buyers and investors are out there purchasing. Low prices and historically low interest rates, plus tax credits and income tax credits now make it more affordable to own than to rent. However, upper end house prices are not faring as well and will continue to decline. Available inventory is down almost 20% from last year!!

The Lyons Real Estate Report is distributed monthly to approx. 950 households in the Tri Valley area. If you'd like to receive this report monthly, or if you'd like to unsubscribe, please send me an email. Thanks!

Tom

Tom Lyons-Real Estate Consultant

925-216-1105

realestate@tomlyons.com

18 Years of experience in Tri Valley Real Estate

The Lyons Tri Valley Real Estate Report

March 2009

Volume #3, Issue #21

Hi Everyone!

There will be no real estate numbers in this months real estate report. We'll go over summaries on what is happening in our local real estate markets later in this report, but for now let's discuss the topics that are on everyone's minds ... namely the Economic Stimulus Plan, Obama's Housing Recovery Plan and what it may mean for our local real estate market for 2009.

The recently announced $275 Billion dollar housing stimulus plan is designed to do a number of keys things to help the housing market. The keys points are:

* Stop foreclosures-The government wants to stop / slow down / reduce the numbers of house foreclosures in 2009 by offering homeowners with troubled loans the ability to mod ify existing loans. The general idea is to modify these loans, that is, lower the homeowners monthly payments, down to a level that the homeowner can afford. This plan has many negatives and positives; here are some links that explain the plan. (Press and hold control ... then left click)

http://www.insidebayarea.com/realestatenews/ci_11743931

http://www.insidebayarea.com/realestatenews/ci_11730045

*Secondly, the federal government will be spending billions of dollars in order to keep mortgage rates low. Low interest rates have historically helped spur home sales.

*Third, the combination of low real estate prices and low interest rates have made home ownership for many people and families much more affordable. One of the more impor- tant parts of the stimulus plan, as it applies to the real estate market, is the new $8,000.00 tax credit for first time home buyers. Perhaps, the most important part of this new first time homebuyer tax credit is that it does not have to be repaid. However, in order to re- ceive this credit you must purchase in the calendar year of 2009. Here is a good link that explains this new credit in detail.

http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/home2.html

Low interest rates, and low house and investment properties prices have ignited investor purchases of single family houses, duplexes, triplexes, etc., in our local area. Excellent returns on investment are being realized by smart investors, LLC's, investor groups that have purchased recently. If you'd like information on local investment clubs, or if you'd like info on how to form an LLC (Limited Liability Corp.) please call or send me an email. We can help you with that.

Purchasing an REO, or foreclosed home, is still extremely popular with first time buyers, buyers, and investors. However, with the government plans now in place, the window of opportunity to purchase real estate REO's at these low prices should begin to close in 2009. For now, there are plenty of opportunities to purchase these great deals. You can find out all you need to know on how to purchase an REO on one of my websites. Here is the link.

http://tomlyons.yourkwagent.com/atj/user/HomePageGetAction.do

Or please go to my original website which has a wealth of information on foreclosures. Here is that link.

http://www.tomlyons.com/index.cfm

Locally, real estate activity has remained the same for the past couple of months. Low priced homes are selling quickly. First time home buyers are out there purchasing homes. Bank owned REO's and short sales are selling quickly, though, the number of shorts sales should decrease dramatically in 2009 as banks will be looking to do loan modifications rather than approve short sales. High priced homes, throughout the Tri Valley Area are not selling well .... Which means that buyers are really saying that the prices on these homes are still too high ..... prices on high priced homes will continue to drop. Once the buyers feel that the higher priced homes are priced correctly (indicative of current market value) they will sell. Here is a great article from Dataquick, the real estate information giant that reports monthly on local real estate sales. It shows what is going on with million dollar real estate in our area.

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/HighEndSales/MDCA090202.aspx

For the past couple of months now, papers and news TV have been reporting that real estate sales have been increasing, yet the median price of homes has been decreasing dramatically. Here are the facts that support those stories.

http://www.dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090219.aspx

As of the date of this writing, the major banks still have moratoriums in place on foreclosures. This means that they are not foreclosing on homes until they can see if they can help troubled homeowners keep their homes via loan modifications first.

The State of California is also jumping on the "Fix the housing crisis" bandwagon, by offering a $10,000 state tax credit for home buyers who purchase a new home. The details are at this link.

http://www.cbia.org:80/go/cbia/newsroom/press-releases/homebuilders-hail-passage-of-homebuyer-tax-credit/

If you have any questions about the foreclosure process, please email me at realestate@tomlyons.com

If you're a homeowner with questions on how the Obama Stimulus Plan may help you, please send us an email.

For your convenience you can get all of the information that you need on The Stimulus Plan, the Housing Recovery Plan, at either of our websites listed below.

http://tomlyons.yourkwagent.com/atj/user/HomePageGetAction.do

http://www.tomlyons.com/index.cfm

Thanks for reading.

Tom

realestate@tomlyons.com

925-216-1105

I've been doing a number of BPO's for VSS lately .... 2-3 per week for the last 2 months. Does anyone have any experience with these guys??

Does doing a great job on their BPO's ever turn into REO listing opportunities?

Thanks for your help.

Tom

Tom Lyons-Real Estate Consultant

925-216-1105

realestate@tomlyons.com

18 Years of experience in Tri Valley Real Estate

The Lyons Tri Valley Real Estate Report

January 2009

Year / Volume #3-Issue #19

Servicing the following zip codes in Alameda County California ... 94550, 94551, 94566, 94588, 94568, 94582, 94583, 94526, 94507, 95376, 95336

The Lyons Tri Valley Real Estate Report is distributed monthly to approximately 1200 households, builders, developers, investors, clients, and friends in our local area. Our goal is to help people make better informed real estate decisions. I'd like to thank all of you who read this report. The fact that so many of you ask me when the next report will be coming out is important to me; it makes me work harder to get the best possible real estate information out to you. Thanks again for your continued support.

For January 2009 there will be no city by city, price range by price range, stats ... I will issue current statistics starting in February 2009 ... but there is a summary on house prices at the end of this report.

The U.S. Government is finally getting it!!

To summarize 2008, it was a year of failed banks, wall street disasters, plummeting house values across the entire nation, many more foreclosures than any of us thought possible, and continued bad economic news wherever you looked. The US government implemented bank bailouts, mortgage relief plans, wall street bailouts, automobile industry bailouts .... totaling untold billions of dollars. But towards the end of 2008 there were signs that the government was finally getting it ... namely ... that the housing crisis is at the crux of the matter. And that if you fix the housing market .... The rest of the economy will eventually follow suit.

Since the Fall of 2008 the government has taken many aggressive steps to fix our housing market. Each step has taken more time, than expected, to implement; during the coming year, 2009, we will start to see significant changes in our local housing market. Perhaps the best program that the government has recently undertaken is to buy approx. $600 Billion in bonds so that interest rates on mortgage loans could be driven down. The plan is to start the calendar year of 2009 with conforming loan fixed interest rates in the 4.5% range. Low interest rates is the single most important item that will help jump start real estate sales. In order to fix the housing market you have to increase demand; you increase buyer demand for houses by lowering interest rates. Lower interest rates coupled with lower home prices means that a mortgage payment is now more affordable. It's as simple as that. Increasing affordability means more people will buy houses. And it seems like the government, and our new administration understands this; it looks like 2009 will be a year of change and recovery.

So what does all of this mean for our local real estate market??

It means that there is a wonderful opportunity for home buyers, first time home buyers, and real estate investors in 2009. This window of opportunity, as we all well know, will not remain open forever.

The bank owned REO properties, or foreclosed homes, are the ones selling at these incredibly low prices. Once a house is owned by the bank they price them low; banks are not in the business to own homes so selling them quick is important; they price them below current market value levels in order to get rid of them right away. There are now many government and lender programs in place to reduce the number of foreclosures; though, for sure, there will be many of them in 2009 .... The number of foreclosures will be reduced in 2009. When the foreclosure situation is fixed the opportunity to buy foreclosures at great prices will slowly disappear and we will be that much closer to returning to a normal real estate market. So, if you plan to do so in the near future, 2009 is the year to pull the trigger.

First time homebuyer opportunity

This coming year offers unparalleled opportunities for first time home buyers. Low house prices, low interest rates, government tax credits, IRS tax breaks, and other home buyer incentives now make it more attractive, financially, in many cases, for a person to buy and own rather than to rent.

Real estate investment opportunity

The same can be said for real estate investors. Right now, LLC's and investment clubs are springing up, like wildflowers, in our area. Investors are purchasing. Hockey great Wayne Gretzky once said ... "skate to the spot where the puck is going to be passed to.... Don't skate to where the puck currently is ..." Applying this to real estate can be explained by the following. Suppose an investment club purchased 8-10 homes, duplexes, etc., in 2009. What would these investments be worth in 10 years? Right. Time to retire and enjoy. We can help with your real estate investment goals.

Need to sell a house in 2009??

Though it may be difficult for sellers to sell right now .... After all you are competing against all those REO's and the low comparables they create, (that do influence your property values) our expertise can help you sell for top market value dollar. Please call or email me to discuss your individual situation.

We help homeowners with foreclosure advice, and short sales

If you need help email me or visit our websites listed on the next page.

Local real estate statistics summary

Throughout our area real estate sales in the lower price ranges are very strong. People are buying these bank owned REO's in record numbers. Just last week we wrote an offer for a $460K house in Dublin that is worth approx. $500K. Within a week the bank had 7 offers and the house sold for well above asking price. In Livermore the lower price ranges are in the high $200's to low $300's. In Dublin it is the low $300's. Mid to high $300's in Pleasanton and San Ramon. Low price ranges in Tracy are approx. $150K. $120K-$150K in Manteca and Lathrop. Houses in these price ranges are selling fast ....months supply, or absorption rates, are in the 2-3 months supply range. This means that home prices in these price ranges are firming up and that we are close to, or at, the bottom of the market in the lower price ranges.

Medium and upper price ranges in our areas are a different story. Months supply in the medium price range remain in the 6-8 month level .... Which means that there is still downward pressure on prices. Upper price ranges (+$1M and higher) continue to struggle as buyers continue to state (by them not purchasing high priced homes ...) that the upper range prices are still too high. Absorption rate continues to be in the 1-2 year supply range .... Which means that prices, and market value, on these kinds of properties .... are continuing to decline. Bank owned REO's in the mid and upper price ranges continue to come on the market at low prices .... These sell rather quickly .... And they drive down the property values of other homes.

I hope you find this report helpful. If you know of someone who would like to receive this report please email me at realestate@tomlyons.com. I send it out on a monthly basis.

Thanks for reading.

Tom

Visit us at our numerous websites ...

www.tomlyons.com

www.tomlyonsforeclosures.com

www.tomlyons.yourkwagent.com