Anthon Pang, Broker, e-PRO, SRES

Well, the numbers are in and at first glance, it looks gloomy. The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) reports that resale activity is down 22% (versus March 2007) in the GTA: -27% in Toronto, -18% in the surrounding "905".

But let's frame this in the right context. Bad weather (resulting in inventory being down 8% from a year ago) and a likely spike in sales towards the end of 2007 (to avoid Toronto's new Land Transfer Tax) are both being blamed.

However, while it is true that Canada is not the United States, our economies are linked. The credit crisis and economic slowdown in the U.S., combined with Canada's high flying dollar, had at least one economist prognosticating Ontario is "teetering" on recession. (Ooooh, I said the 'R' word.) We'll have a better idea of the trend at the end of the current quarter (Q2).

Still, with the onset of spring, there's the expectation that we'll see an increase in inventory, buyer interest, and resales activity.

Links:

• GTA Resale Housing Sales Ease in March
• GTA house sales drop 22%

The Toronto Real Estate Board took a strong position against Toronto's (then proposed) Land Transfer Tax (LTT), regardless of concessions. Contrary to TREB's position, the Toronto Board of Trade (BoT) flip-flopped, i.e., it reversed its opposition stance and backed the revised LTT proposal.

So, what now?

• Will TREB withdraw its membership from the BoT in protest?
• What will be the ultimate economic impact of Toronto's LTT?
• Who'll be shouting, "I told you so!" from the rooftops?

All this and more to be revealed. Stay tuned!

Compared to February 2007, last month's resales activity is reportedly down 11% overall (14% in Toronto vs 9% in the 905 burbs). But to frame this in the proper context, inventory is also down 7%.

While these numbers are markedly down, there is good news:

• the average price is up 4% in the GTA,
• the average price is up 2% in the city of Toronto,
• and the average days on market is down to 30 versus 35 a year ago

Links:

• GTA Resale Housing Down But Healthy
• February resales slow as fewer owners put homes on market

As expected, 2007 was a record year for the Toronto Real Estate Board. Above average condo resales activity and increased activity in Toronto (both likely attributeable to the Toronto Land Transfer Tax being introduced this year) were noticeably up in December.

Congrats to our members!

See also:

• Condo sales bring 2007 to a strong finish! (TREB)

As for the new year, 2008 brings more incentives for buyers. We have a 1% reduction in the GST on new homes. Meanwhile, the land transfer tax rebate has been extended to first time homebuyers of resale homes. Also, some analysts are calling for 2008 to be the year of falling interest rates -- so there are eyes on January 22 when the Bank of Canada makes its next announcement on the key interest rate (the last before Governor Dodge hands over the reins to Carney).