“World's Most Complete Neighborpedia”
Explore:   What's happening in your neck of the woods?

Travis Neliton

What Is Driving Mortgage Rates Up You Ask?

It is borrower demand plain and simple! As I will explain in my video update, there are three primary reasons why the secondary market investors are offering rates way above where pricing should be when looking at the value and costs of a mortgage backed security as of market close Friday. The similar comparison I use in the video is when oil prices stay the same but prices at the gas pump continue to climb. The concept of supply and demand is ringing true. The three primary reasons we cannot lock into lower interest rates currently is; #1 Lack of staff to underwrite, process and fund loans in a timely manner before the lock commitment expires. #2 Lack of money in warehouse lines or investors equity lines to fund the amount of deals coming in. #3 Profit taking, these investors need money to hire their staff back, recovering losses from 2008 and simply enjoying the fact they CAN charge a higher yield or premium right now as all of their competition is too. Have you ever watched 3 gas stations on opposing corners raise their price per gallon a penny more than the two across the street only to have the other two follow closely behind with a leap frog by 1 cent? Same concept. I hope this was helpful. Be Blessed!

Video Market Update for Jan 13th and Thought for the Day!

Hello Friends, I hope you are enjoying the near year so far. It sure has been interesting to be a student of the economy and market right now. Everything we have known to be true in the past is being questioned and living in a global economy changes things considerably unlike the past. Today is a prime example. 4th quarter earnings are being reported and aluminum giant, Alcoa reported a $1 Billion loss in the 4th quarter and had to cut nearly 13% of its global workforce. Bloomberg News reported today that it is now estimated $350 Billion was lost in Hedge Funds in 2008! Probably what is the most interesting of all of this, the DOW is only down 58! These type of reports had they hit the wires unexpectedly two years ago, it would have been on all the news stations, the DOW would be dropping 1000 points and so on. Now it's like the traders are saying, "what’s new, tell us something we don't know." On the flip side, bad economic news typically makes mortgage backed securities improve because of the flight to safety on bonds, but they aren't even reacting anymore either. So interesting times to say the least. I have shared some other information about the dynamic with mortgage rates and still the room for improvement as well as some other information on the video and my "thought for the day" from John Maxwell. Be Blessed!

It's time to refinance, right?

Hello Friends!

Well this blog has been written much more reactive than proactive observing the past few trading days and now seeing the Feds are committing to purchasing $500 billion worth of mortgage backed securities between Jan 5th and June 30th. Just in the first 3 days, Jan 5th-7th, it was announced the Feds purchased $10.4 billion in those 3 days, which that amount makes sense as there are about 120 trading days remaining between now and June 30th, at an average of $4 billion a day to spend it all by June 30th.

What this has done has caused mortgage backed securities, (MBS) to become much more valuable as they really cannot sustain a loss when the Feds are pumping so much money into the market. MBS are traded just like stocks are like Intel or Google would be. They are offered at a price that declines and rises depending on global events, trending lines, stocks rallying and other technical factors. Often it is misunderstood that when MBS are priced higher or become more value, it would make sense that rates go up, but the inverse is true. The more valuable the MBS, the lower the rate. Hence the reason a 30-yr mortgage is currently pricing in the upper 4% range as well as an APR creeping into the upper 4% range as well.

There are several theories out there as to when you should refinance. I am sure you have heard anything from the new rate would have to be at least 1% lower than you currently have, sometimes we hear 1.5% lower, etc. But there are many factors to consider when refinancing. The basic, most common is called a "rate and term" refinance. This simply is obtaining a lower rate from your current rate with no other objectives such as non-preferred debt consolidation, cash out for investment, an adjustable rate mortgage that is about to expire, consolidating an first and second loan you used to purchase your home among many other reasons I am finding with my clients daily.

With that being said, I strongly encourage you to contact me as well as tell those people you care about to contact me for a complementary consultation so I can "adopt their mortgage". Often times other mortgage brokers will view the closed loan as just that, a closed loan that is not managed or reviewed annually. If it is not properly managed as it should be like any asset or debt, you could miss an opportunity like now where rates are at all time lows. If the mortgage is under my team's management, I can react when the right window of opportunity appears that falls in line with your short and long term financial goals we identify in our strategy session.

The final thought is that there really is no "cheap" place to get mortgages as I mentioned they are purchased like stocks, so when you see an advertised rate that looks too good to be true, most likely it is. The simple analogy or question you must ask would be "are you able to buy Intel Stock from a discount broker at a lower price than from the open market? "No, so that should be something you consider when you are possibly enticed by a rate that is way outside of other quotes or advertisements you may receive.

I could go on and on about the huge amount of savings over time with refinancing into the interest rate environment we are in currently but everyone's situation is more unique then you'd think so an hour or two of upfront planning with me I feel would definitely be worth your time when considering a mortgage redesign. Me and my team are here to answer any of your questions. Thank you for all of the recent support and questions, it has been an unbelievable blessing in what had been a tough market.

Be Blessed!

Video Mortgage and Financial Market Update for Jan 6th

Hello Friends! What a day so far for mortgage backed securities! The Feds are buying up mortgages like a kid buying candy with his new allowance at the Dollar Tree. The Feds announced a few weeks ago that they plan on buying $500 billion in mortgage bonds over the next 6 months and the buying started yesterday at a fast pace. If you figure there are about 120 trading days between now and June 30th, that is a pace of $4 billion a day! On the days that the stocks are rallying most likely the Feds will hold on purchasing until MBS improve in pricing. This could mean that the Feds take a few days off of purchasing only to flood the market on a positive day purchasing over $10 billion in a day in some cases. This is nothing but great news for mortgage rates and liquidity in the market to make mortgages much more affordable to stimulate housing and the economy. Just to give you an idea, I sent out an analysis to a client last night comparing the rate we looked at back in September at 6.25% to the current rate at 4.75% and on a $300,000 loan, it was a monthly savings of $274 a month! Overtime, those numbers are staggering. So if you are waiting for home prices to decline even more, the window of opportunity for these rates may be gone in a few months, negating the possible lower value you are waiting for if your borrowing rate has increased. As they say, if you are waiting for the market to hit bottom, you won't know until it is coming back up. Be Blessed!

Welcome 2009! Video Mortgage and Financial Market Update for Jan 2nd

Hello Friends and Happy New Year! I hope you all are enjoying your first "business" day of 2009 and your New Year's resolutions are staying strong! Apparently it was a few traders resolution to buy stocks the first moment there was an opportunity today when the market opened because it looks like the DOW will close above 9000 for the first time in several months, currently trading up 247 points. The only real reason for this is emotion as technically, there is no real reason for the buying that is going on across all sectors. The bad news is that mortgage backed securities have really taken a hit this morning. They are down 59 basis points, and actually down about 80 basis points from when we opened this morning in the positive. That is an ugly swing. Just counting the 59 bps, that equates to about $600 per $100k borrowed in extra fees to get the same rate as Wednesday. A few reasons for this is the climb in oil prices, a weakening dollar and just the fact that money is being pulled from bonds to purchase stocks by traders. We do have a trending line that is called an "up escalator" that has appeared in past several weeks with the mortgage rate improvements, which now becomes a level of support. We are nearly touching on this line so we should see a bounce positive early next week. Please watch the video for more details! Be Blessed!