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Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman indicated the Fed should be able to keep interest rates low for some time, as the recent drop in commodity prices coupled with reduced demand for resources should reduce the threat of inflation.
"If not reversed, these developments, together with a pace of growth that is likely to fall short of potential for a time, should lead inflation to moderate later this year and next year," Bernanke said on Friday at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
As a result Bernanke's comments helped boost stocks. For the last several months the Fed has had to tread carefully to ensure its rate cuts, meant to prime the economic pump, do not spark inflation, which continues to rise at a pace not seen for nearly two decades.
Acknowledging the slowing U.S. economy and that rising inflation have combined to create "one of the most challenging economic and policy environments in memory," Bernake said turmoil in the financial markets "has not yet subsided".
In addition, he added that the Fed's decision to lower the fed funds rate to 2 percent from 5.25 percent over the last year was "conditioned on our expectation that the prices of oil and other commodities would ultimately stabilize", and said this ongoing expectation has allowed the Fed to keep the fed funds rate low "despite an increase in inflationary pressures".
However, while he called recent commodity price declines "encouraging", he said the inflation outlook is still "highly uncertain" and reiterated the Fed would "continue to monitor inflation and inflation expectations closely."
"The FOMC is committed to achieving medium-term price stability and will act as necessary to attain that objective," he said.
As Central bankers from around the world gathered in the mountain resort of Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for an annual symposium. Financial markets remain worried about more home loan losses and concern those U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will need a government bailout.
It was this time last year that Bernanke told the conference the Fed would take steps to shield the economy from the U.S. housing collapse, but would not bail out investors.
In the time since then, the Fed has slashed interest rates and lined up billions of dollars in emergency credit to prevent markets from seizing up over mountainous home loan losses.
Bernanke added that the financial crisis that has pounded the country-coupled with higher inflation- is taking a toll on the economy and poses a major challenge to Fed policymakers as they try to restore stability.
"Although we have seen some improved functioning in some markets, the financial storm that reached gale force" around this time last year "has not yet subsided, and its effects on the broader economy are becoming apparent in the form of softening economic activity and rising unemployment," Bernanke said.
As we look at Mr. Bernake's comments, these all point to the fact that perhaps the general consensus that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon, will not occur. If the economy is still in a down turn and inflation is in his opinion subsiding, then discount window may be kept open with lower rates for the foreseeable future.
For more information on the Federal Reserve's actions and the current mortgage, please contact Bill Kamboukos or Carlos Felix of Strategic Mortgage at (480) 219-3682 or by emailing: info@strategicmtgaz.com or online at www.strategicmtgaz.com
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