Bob Davis

Some of the best deals on home in San Diego County are available in Valley Center right now.

We're seeing homes built in the last ten years selling at prices comparable to 30-year old homes in other nearby areas...Here's Proof!

AND...make sure you read below for more information about what these numbers mean!

This is a market snapshot of everything actively for sale, in a Pending or Contingent status (contingent is usually reserved for REO and shortsale) and everything Sold in the past 30 days:

Take a look at the Active to Sold Ratio! Most other communities here have less than two months supply of housing...making it a bidding war every time a home comes on the market.

You've got TEN MONTHS of inventory in Valley center....this is GREAT for buyers, and definitely one of the most available markets for buyers in the entire San Diego County Area...

Look at the list to sale price ratio...again....one of the best for buyers in the entire county!

If you're looking for a rural community with great schools and affordable homes with ACREAGE...this is the time and this is the place!

We're a little town of about 8000 folks...and we're facing growth that's looking like it will DOUBLE the population of this area....DOUBLE!!...that's big change!

How do you manage growth in your town? How are you preparing for the future?

Here in my little corner of San Diego County we're facing some monumental changes...the plans being made today will build out over the next 15 years and will affect the quality of life and home values for everyone!

Last night I attended a meeting of the Valley Center Ca. Planning Group...and it was a packed house!

The Planning Group had three large items on the agenda...a major development plan for the north villiage area wtih over 500 homes...a proposed 1700+ home development for the far western edge of this area...and a group of folks that are trying to promote and preserve the rural character of the outlying areas.

For many years Valley Center was a quiet little place...not more than a wide spot in the road...but now we're becoming a focal point for sustainable community development...new community planning standards...and the potential for huge growth.

We're fortunate here...lots of property owners are taking the time to become involved in shaping the future of our area...lots of community involvement means plans that satisfy at least a majority of the residents.

We're at a watershed point...the plans are being made today that will affect us for the rest of our lives here. I suspect this is happening all over the U.S right now.

What's the situation in your area?

Everyone wants a great deal....and a great deal on a home is even better...here's a little story about how to be exceptionally happy about the money you save when buying a home.

Just a few months after I graduated High School I had a job, rented a nice apartment...and felt pretty good about myself....I was paying the princely sum of $215 a month for a furnished one-bedroom place in a decent part of town.

Things were going great until I came back to my parents house and was talking with my dad....that's when I learned that he was paying $160 a month for a house payment on an 1800+ sf ranch style home with a pool, and a a view to die for!!!

It was hard to accept that he could get so much more for so much less....how did that happen???

The answer is absolutely simple...12 years...and a lot of inflation....which sounds a lot like what is about to happen once again...just a little word to the wise!

My dad bought his home in 1966...I moved out in 1978...in the twelve intervening years there were two recessions and two periods of high inflation...the house payment that was all he could afford in 1966 became almost a utility bill in 1978.

This whole scenario is about to play itself out one more time....If you're renting right now please think about this.,...there really is a way to pay pennies on the dollar for real estate....it's called buy and hold!

Not too sexy...Not too exciting...but just about guaranteed to work

Don't let the doom and gloomer's get you down...everyone wants to live indoors.,.and always will...it may be difficult to buy right now...but the long term rewards are GREAT!!...sacrifices you make today pay huge dividends in a few years!

How do you measure the growth of a local housing market?

When things are going crazy how much should you offer?

One great indicator is the ratio of the sale price to the list price...higher numbers mean more competition from buyers and a rising market...and that is certainly true here in Valley Center and Escondido!

This afternoon I took a careful look at our local markets...and found that the numbers reported from many news outlets really don't tell the entire story!

Everyone reports the "average" numbers...but we all know there is no such thing as an "Average Home"...each one is different...and every town has different quality homes...and they sell at different rates!

So...how do you make any sense out of it all?

Here in Escondido...and especially in Valley Center...the homes that are attracting all the attention are priced at or below the median sale price for a given area....so here is the trick!

First...determine sale to list price ratios for all homes sold.....Second...do the same thing for homes priced below the median sale price...

Then....graph it all out so you can see what's happening!

To save you all a little time here is what I found for our area....but this will be true for all of North San Diego County...and probably for every other metro area in the country!

Here is the data from this summer for Valley Center, Ca.:

And here is the data from the East Escondido Ca. zip code 92027 area:

Just look at the increasing ratios....we are definitely seeing some nice price appreciation...and the volume is up too!!

This all translates into some great price appreciation for buyers....so don't let the media naysayers make you miss the boat!

If you want more detailed information about Escondido, CA or Valley Center, CA....just ask!

This afternoon I took a look at the foreclosure and pre-foreclosure information in the San Diego County Assessor's database....the numbers are almost unbelievable!

We hear stories about the "Shadow Inventory" of foreclosures out there...the "Foreclosure Tsunami" waiting to break...unfortunately those stories may just be TRUE!

San Diego County is one of the locations you could call "Ground Zero" for foreclosures....and there is no other part of this town that is any harder hit than the Escondido area...and my home town...Valley Center...so I picked these zip codes to illustrate how things are changing in a hard-hit area.

These Charts are my own research...straight from the Assessor's database...I pulled all of these numbers today...to calculate the monthly sales volume for each zip code I took the past three months worth of sold data for all housing types...and divided by three...pretty tricky eh?

Now...you have to promise me something...promise you will READ the comments below the charts...they are IMPORTANT...but won't make sense without the chart data.

First...here is a comparison of homes in each local zip code that are in some stage of the foreclosure process...Escondido has four zip codes, 92025 through 92029...Valley Center is 92082:

The sheer number of present and upcoming foreclosures is staggering...More than 90% of these homes are going to hit the resale market...with a HUGE impact.

Let's look at that in the context of the number of sales in an average month here...I took the past three months of sales and averaged that to a single-month average number of sales...and compared this "Shadow Inventory" to the present sales:

These Foreclosed or "about to be Foreclosed" homes represent on average OVER A YEAR of sales inventory!

Ask yourselves two questions:

• Do we think that unemployment is going to increase the number of foreclosures?
• How deep is the "Pool of Buyers" for these homes?

In the North San Diego County area we're seeing over a 1% per month price appreciation for the average home...many first time buyers were again priced out of the market this fall

This data shows me that we should have downward pressure on prices at some point...and those folks need to be ready to STRIKE when the prices drop! It won't happen a third time!

The elimination of Federal Mark-toMarket rules have allowed banks to hold LOTS of homes off the market...but how long can they keep that up?:

a.) Six more months

b.) Eight more months

c.) Twelve more months

d.) For Ever

If I get to grade this little test there will be no points given for "d" as the correct answer....

Just like the earlier bubble...what goes up will come down...right now bank inventories are up...OK...for now...but the savvy buyers will be READY when the inventories start to come down!

Hope this was helpful...if you ever have questions or referrals for Escondido or Valley Center I'm here to serve you!