I took a look at the Alameda County & Contra Costa County weekly homes sales data today and thought I’d share some highlights to consider:
- Number of homes for sale: ~4600 homes for sale in Alameda County and ~5600 in Contra Costa County.
- The number of homes for sale in Contra Costa is up about 24% vs. last year, but importantly, the number of pending sales is up to 40% in the same time.
- The cities where we are seeing more pending sales are in outlying areas such as Antioch, Pittsburg and Brentwood – areas that have seen relative price compression vs. cities like Pleasanton and San Ramon. Interestingly, Pleasanton and San Ramon both saw decreases in pending sales, which suggests that we have more patient sellers here – this makes sense, as the market is relatively stronger here.
- Contra Costa County has 211 home sales pending, which is about 4% of total homes for sale. By contrast, last year, 3% of total homes for sale were pending sales.
- I found this to be an interesting figure, as I had expected to see a bigger difference between this year vs. last year. The increase from 3% to 4%, while meaningful, doesn’t jump out and tell me that the local area market is mirroring the national data we see from the media.
- The Alameda County data unfortunately does not show yearly comparisons this time, only weekly. Weekly data can be noisy from week to week, but we’ll keep an eye on this data and report back on meaningful trends. For what its worth, Fremont has 28 home sales pending, an increase of 10 homes vs. the prior week.
- With last month’s announced increase in the “conforming loan limit” to $729,750 from $417,000 in most Bay Area counties, I believe it will take a bit of time for this to make its impact on home sales / pending sales numbers. Investors and banks seem to still be digesting what the new increased limit means for them, and thus rates haven’t fluctuated as significantly as some initially expected. That said, with the election year upon us and the Federal government continuing to take an active role, I think we may yet see some type of stimulus (perhaps tax-related?) to encourage investment in mortgage-backed securities. This would in theory lead to lower rates and increased demand.