Not really, I've been focussed on other areas and not doing much in the way of Real Estate. I'm Back! I am re-committing myself to regaining my postion and prominence in the Real Estate resale market in Calgary. This is sort of a "watch out here I come" message. You will be seeing much more of me in the next little while, so move over or speed up, I'm coming through. ANy referrals, etc. will be appreciated.
Most of us think about owning a home, most of us want to own a home some day, why not now?
Prices of homes in Calgary have been falling. One of the major banks recently forecast that the price of an average home in Calgary will drop by 1% in 2009 before an increase occurs in 2010. What this indicates is that we are at, or very close to the bottom in terms of home prices in our city. NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY.
Why would you want to buy when you can rent?
Let's Do Some Math:
Taking the middle road, in five years your $265,000 home purchase will pay you about $45,000 when you move out. If you Rent, when you move out you will be lucky if you get your damage deposit back.
Something to think about: Countries around the world are printing money like crazy to combat the financial crisis, this will have the longer term effect of de-valuing currencies. Can you spell I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N? How much did you pay for a chocolate bar ten years ago? How much will you pay in ten years from now??
I am a Realtor, so by nature I am an optimist. Every day I get questioned about how bad the re-sale home market is in Calgary. Every day I respond that while it is pretty rough out there, it's not as bad as some pessimists would have you believe. Here are some of my opinions on where the market is and where it is going. I will strongly caution that anybody who tells you that they KNOW what the market is doing is a charlatan, delusional, or both.
The re-sale home market is not nearly as bad as it feels. While home sales are off by over 25% year over year and almost 40% November 2007 compared to November 2007, the average selling price has only dropped by 2.5% year over year and 5.7% compared to last November. To me this indicates that there is significant resilience in home prices in Calgary, that the bottom has not fallen out of the market. It also indicates that there is an acceleration of price reductions happening, with the economy suffering and nobody seeming to know how to go about fixing it, no wonder people are running scared. There are a lot of price reduction and distressed selling situations out there, that is fact. The problem is that the bad news makes news, the good news gets buried.
Here is the rub, we don't generally buy Real Estate as a short term investment. The vast majority of people buy a home to live in, raise a family, and so on. Our statistics indicate that the average length of time to own a single home is approximately five years. We must think longer term or we are in danger of scaring ourselves insane.
The average single family home in Calgary in November of 2008 is $461,497
The average single family home in Calgary in November of 2007 was $473,153 (+2.5%)
The average single family home in Calgary in November of 2006 was $408,581 (-6.2%)
The average single family home in Calgary in November of 2005 was $303,160 (-30.4%)
The average single family home in Calgary in November of 2003 was $245,658 (-43.6%)
By this logic, if I had bought five years ago and sold today my home has increased in value by 43.6%! Nothing to be ashamed of, as a matter of fact the only owners really taking a hit are those that bought for the short term (flipping) during mid-2007 and now have to sell, they projected a continued increase in property value that has no yet materialized, but their carrying cost are killing their bottom line.
I am an optimist, as I said earlier. I believe that with so many smart people focused on the economy, they will find solutions for the current malaise. While I do not think that we are going to get back to a market like 2005-2007, I do think that the market will fairly quickly return to a sustainable level of activity and growth. Calgary was affected more by over-enthusiasm (read as speculation) than by outside markets, leading to an extreme number of available listings which are now being absorbed back into the marketplace as building activity slows. My prediction is that we will see a stabilization in prices and return to a balanced market by the end of the first quarter of 2009.
We may have already seen the bottom of the market, a hard thing to do is recognize a bottom, since you have to be past it to see the change in trend. One week into December I can tell you that the prices and number of sales are off by less than November was, and may indicate the start of a reversal in the market, but it is still early. December is traditionally a slow month, and this year the conditions are ripe to make it a great time to buy, I believe that if we are not at the bottom, we are very close to it and a buying decision made now could pay huge dividends down the road a little. The one caveat, buy longer term, think in five year terms, not one year.
The Real Estate Market in Calgary is not really that bad, it just requires more thought and planning than in the last couple of years.
CALGARY MARKET SHOWS SEASONAL DECLINE Calgary, December 1, 2008 - MLS® sales activity shows typical seasonal slowdown, as the end of 2008 approaches, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®). Single family Calgary metro sales for the month of November totaled 670, showing a decrease of 39.3 per cent from the 1,103 sales in November 2007 and showing a decrease of 18.3 per cent from last month's sales of 820. Condominium sales for the month of November were 284, a decrease of 42.7 per cent from the 496 condominium sales recorded in November 2007 and showing a decrease of 29 per cent from October 2008 when 399 condominiums changed hands. "We're coming into the homestretch, with just one month left in 2008. Market activity typically slows down during the end of any year, however, this isn't a typical market, so the slow down that we're seeing is somewhat magnified. This is due to uncertainty amongst consumers and it isn't just affecting real estate, it's affecting all consumer spending," commented President, Ed Jensen. "I've said it before and I'll say it again, now is a great time to buy for bargain hunters and buyers who intend to buy long term; it is not a market for home flip buyers. Prices have come down and there are excellent deals to be had." Jensen, concluded. The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in November 2008 was $435,471, showing a decrease of 5.8 per cent from November 2007, when the average price was $462,134, and showing a decrease of 3 per cent from October when the average price was $449,100. The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $285,820, showing an 8.6 per cent decrease from November 2007 when the average price was $312,710, and showing a decrease of 1.2 per cent over last month, when the average price was $289,148. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials between geographical areas. Single family Calgary metro new listings added for the month of November totaled 1,567, a decrease of 19.6 per cent from November 2007, when new listing added totaled 1,949 and a decrease of 32.5 per cent from last month, when new listings coming to the market were 2,322. Calgary metro condominium new listings added in November 2008 were 741, showing a decrease of 16.7 per cent from the 890 new condominium listings added in November 2007 and a decrease of 30.8 per cent from last month's condominium listings of 1,071. The median price of a single family Calgary metro home in November 2008 was $387,300, showing a decrease of 5 per cent from November 2007, when the median price was $407,500 and down 0.7 per cent from last month when the median price was $390,000. All Calgary Metro MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary's City limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price. The Calgary Real Estate Board is a professional body of 5,498 licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 249 Member offices. The Board does not generate statistics or analysis of any individual member or company's market share. All MLS® active listings for Calgary and area may be found on the Board's website at www.creb.com.
Please join me in welcoming Wendy Goodsir to Active Rain, Wendy is a MOrtgage Broker with mortgagebrokers.com, the fastest growing mortgage brokerage in Canada. Wendy works out if the Calgary south location in Avenida, but she is mobile and covers all of Calgary and surrounding areas.
Her profile can be founs at http://activerain.com/wgoodsir
One of the premier Realtors in the Calgary area
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