Keith Vincent

I've been patiently waiting for somebody to go out on a limb and give me some insight as to what affect the economic turmoil on the world stock markets will have on the Real Estate market in Calgary. I've asked everyone that I know in positions of knowledge and have had a hard time getting beyond a shoulder shrug and a quick change of subject.

So with some trepidation I find myself climbing out on that limb while keeping an eye carefully out for anybody with a chain saw.

It is Wednesday evening, October 8, 2008 as I write this, and I have been heartened by today's financial developments. For once, and it may be unique in history, most of the main players are pulling in the same direction! I think that this fact alone bodes well for avoiding any further melt down. The lowering of mortgage interest and injection of liquidity into the markets will help real estate.

Here is my prediction: We are at the bottom.

I believe that in the next few days the consumer will realize that the Real Estate market has been stabilized and buying will restart. With buyers entering the market it will quickly affect home values and selling times, within a couple of months we will see the release of pent-up demand that exists in Calgary. Calgary has very strong base economics, but with prices dropping over the last few months buyers have been reluctant to enter the market. As soon as the general public starts to see that the bottom has been reached there will be a relatively quick recovery of strength in our market. To be clear, I don't mean that suddenly our home values will jump by a large percentage, just that we will return to a regime where sales and prices will be more balanced than they have been recently.

What does this mean? It's a good time to buy in Calgary.

After the wild ride we had two years ago and to a lesser extent in 2007, 2008 is shaping up to be a completely different kind of market.

There are a tremendous number of homes on the market, 10330 single family and condos in Calgary metro as of this writing. I consider a "Normal" market to have between 3,000 and 4,000 listings, so you can see there is a lot to choose from, and it is definitely a buyers market, with lots of wheeling and dealing.

Why are there so many Listings? Several reasons, paramount among them is that many people jumped into the market two years ago with investment money, buying or building speculatively with the intention to sell in two years at a profit. Many of these investors calculated a future value of their property that did not come true, however they still have to sell at an inflated price to cover their expenses. The other primary group of sellers is the homeowner who saw the massive increase in their equity as an opportunity to move up to a larger or newer home, they are also in the same boat as the investor. The net effect is that there is a large portion of homes on the market that are overpriced, leading to a stagnant market and widespread price reductions.

Many in the general public see the price reductions and generalize that prices are falling. There is also a tendency in the media to sensationalize any market news that they can get their hands on to sell more papers, etc. Bad news sells more than good news.

I am constantly being asked, "Are prices still dropping?" To which my standard answer is "No, they have been increasing since the first of the year." If the first week of May is any indication I will be able to keep using that answer. So far this month there has been a $19,000 average price increase compared to last month! So much for lower prices. Sales numbers are holding steady as well, almost identical to last month.

The best time to buy or sell is when you are ready. Waiting to identify trends in the Real Estate market is a fools game. Unless you are intimately involved in the industry, you are unlikely to recognize any significant treads until the time has passed to make a move.

After having written all of this the net effect is that I am still bullish on the Calgary Real Estate market and expect that year end will see approximately 5 to 6% increase in property prices, with a slow and gradual return to a more normal number of listings available.

Calgary, April 1, 2008 - Calgary's MLS® listings for the month and for the first quarter, indicate a wide variety of housing for potential buyers, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).

Single family Calgary metro new listings added for the month of March totaled 3,493, an increase of 11.6 per cent from March 2007 when new listing added totaled 3,131 an increase of 17.2 per cent over last month, when new listings coming to the market were 2,981. At the end of the first quarter, we have seen 9,497 listings new to the market, compared to the 7,661 new listings for the first quarter of 2007, indicating a 24 per cent increase.

"We have moved into a market that is currently providing a great variety and choices for the buyer. Not only does the buyer have much better supply to choose from, they can also customize their wants and needs in a home, making for a dream home purchase," remarked CREB® President, Ed Jensen. Single family Calgary metro sales for the month of March came in at 1,418, showing a decrease of 37.6 per cent from the 2,272 sales in March 2007 but showing an increase of 13.3 per cent over last month's sales of 1,252. Looking at the first quarter sales for single family Calgary metro, we see that 3,747 homes have changed hands, compared to the 5,709 sales recorded in the first quarter of 2007, indicating a 34.3 per cent decrease.

"Gone are the days of sellers naming their price; sellers have to pay much more attention to what their asking price will be and how they present their home to experience a quick sale," explained Jensen. "Sellers should rely on their REALTOR® for help while deciding on a list price, your REALTOR® has an arsenal of tools at their disposal to analyze the market and find a fair and reasonable price point for the seller." "The average time a home is remaining on the market prior to selling is 40 days, but some are remaining on the market much longer and that may be due to overpricing and the extra inventory we are currently experiencing, one in five homes are selling in today's market, this is a great time for buyers to buy a home," continued, Jensen.

Buyers need to know, that in today's complex market, it is more important than ever that they call a realtor to assist them through the details of a purchase.

The median price of a single family Calgary metro home in March 2008 was $420,000 showing a very slight decrease of 1.6 percent over March 2007, when the median price was $427,000 and showing a 1.9 per cent decrease from last month when the median price was $428,000. Quarterly, the 2008 single family Calgary metro home median price also came in at $420,000, an increase of 2.5 per cent over the first quarter median price of 409,900, for 2007. All Calgary Metro MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary's City limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.

Calgary metro condominium new listings added in March 2008 were 1,561, showing an increase of 24.9 per cent from the 1,250 new condominium listings added in March 2007 and a 25.5 per cent increase over the 1,244 new condominium listings brought to market last month. New Condominium listings finding their way to the market in the first three months of 2008 totaled 4,208, an increase of 33.9 percent over the 3,143 new listing brought to market in the first quarter of 2007.

Condominium sales for the month of March were 565, a decrease of 44.9 per cent over the 1,026 condominium sales in March 2007 and an increase of just 0.5 percent over the 562 condominium sales changing hands in February. Quarterly, condominium sales were 1,577 for this year, a decrease of 40.6 per cent from the 2,656 condominium sales recorded in the first three month of 2007.

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in March 2008 was $474,513, showing a 1.1 per cent decrease from March 2007, when the average price was $479,914. The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $312,620, showing a 0.1 per cent decrease from March 2007 when the average price was $312,280. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

The Calgary Real Estate Board is a professional body of 0,000 licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 000 Member offices. The Board does not generate statistics or analysis of any individual member or company's market share. All MLS® active listings for Calgary and area may be found on the Board's website at www.creb.com.

Calgary's MLS® sales for the month of February show signs of increased market pace, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).

"It appears as though things are picking up, as we move into the final month of the first quarter. I don't anticipate we'll see the blistering market that we experienced in the early parts of 2006 and 2007, but I do anticipate stability in this now corrected market," remarked CREB® president Ed Jensen.

Single family Calgary metro properties changing hands in February 2008 totaled 1,252, an increase of 15.6% over the 1,083 sales reported in January 2008, but showed a decrease of 35.5% from the same period last year, when there were 1,942 sales.

Single family Calgary metro new listings added for the month of February totaled 2,981, a decrease of 1.4% from January's new listing of 3,023 and an increase of 35.1% over the 2,206 new listings added in February 2007.

The median price of a single family Calgary metro home in February 2008 was $428,000, showing a 4.9% increase over February 2007 when the median price was $408,000 and showing a 4.4% increase from last month when the median price was $410,000.

All Calgary metro MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary's city limits.

The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.

Calgary metro condominium new listings added in February 2008 were 1,244, showing an increase of 39.9% from the 889 new condominium listings added in February 2007.

This is an 11.5% decrease from last month, when the new listings added were 1,406.

Calgary metro condominium sales in February 2008 were 562; a decrease of 37.2% from February 2007 when 895 condominiums changed hands and an increase of 23.8% from the 454 sales recorded in the month of January 2008.

"Calgary is a very desirable place to live at the moment, with our strong economy, low unemployment rates, strength in the oil and gas industry; people are still moving here and that's great for real estate," concluded Jensen.

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in February 2008 was $471,696, showing a 5.2% increase over February 2007, when the average price was $448,557.

The average price of a metro condominium was $311,812, showing a 3.3% increase over February 2007 when the average price was $301,812.

Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

Calgary, this town is wired differently than just about anywhere else you can name.

Can we figure out the Real Estate market here? Probably not, unless you are Sylvia Brown.

Here is what I can tell you. The Calgary real estate market is no longer going down. Many people have approached me with a comment something similar to "I plan to buy a home but I am waiting for the prices to go down some more." Well, from my side of the fence I tell them that they have waited too long if that was their intention. If they had wanted to buy at the bottom of the market then that was in December when the average price was just a shade over four hundred thousand dollars. Even then, that was higher than January of 2007 when the average was about $385,000. Of course my opinion is that waiting is a poor bet, since generally prices have gone up and that money spent renting, waiting for it to go down is simply wasted.

The Average price of a Calgary home in February was $422,162, compared to $412,864 in January and $20,000 higher than last February. We are still short of the peak of $452,578 that happened last July but we are rapidly closing the gap.

There are a lot of homes on the market in Calgary, many are being reduced in price, but that does not mean that prices are going down. All it means is that those homes were over priced and the market did not respond.

Will the market keep going up? I don't know. Refer to the second line of this article. An educated guess, which is the most I will call it, would seem to indicate that the market in Calgary should be robust for quite a while to come. It is a reflection of our economy, if we start to have significantly higher unemployment, interest rates, or dramatically lower oil prices.....then maybe. None of he prognisticators are predicting either of these. While Alberta is remains the economic engine that it has been for the last decade there is no reason to expect any long term reversal in the Real Estate Market.

My advice to buyers, at the soonest point where you are ready, Buy. To sellers, when you are ready, Sell. Take your shot and what comes comes. You should always look at the Real Estate Market as a long term investment, and in the long term it has proven to be one of the best investments possible.

Keith Vincent, Realtor, Calgary, Alberta