Mortgage Bonds were helped this morning, after a rough open, by news that the Unemployment Rate increased to 5.50%, up from 5% last month. As you know, bad news in employment usually fuels good news for mortgages.
Speaking of fuel, oil prices continue to spark inflation fears, which are always a key negative indicator for mortgages. This coupled with statements made by the European Central Bank of potential rate increases, will surely put pressure on the dollar, making foreign goods and services more expensive in the U.S. and also contributing to inflation.
I will continue to keep close tabs on inflation indicators, and as things change I will continue to keep Brentwood TN Homes and Real Estate readers informed.
*Information Courtesy Tonya Esquibel, WR Starkey Mortgage Brentwood/Franklin, TN*
Vanessa Stalets
615-957-6333
Brentwood TN Homes
RE/MAX Elite
615-661-4400
THE FOLLOWING LENDERS HAVE GONE FROM THE AILING LIST TO IMPLODED:
(For a complete list please visit Brentwood TN Finance)
Vanguard Mortgage & Title, Inc.
Chase Home Equity - Wholesale
Chase Subprime - Wholesale
Evergreen Investment & Carnation Banc
Casa Blanca Mortgage/Shearson - Wholesale
UPDATED AILING LENDER LIST:
17. Franklin Bank, SSB
16. Wilmington Finance
15. Bayview Lending Group, LLC
14. Homewide Lending Corporation
13. Thornburg Mortgage
12. American Equity Mortgage, Inc.
11. CTX Mortgage Company (Retail)
10. First Horizon Home Loans
9. Gateway Funding
8. BankUnited (Wholesale)
7. Chevy Chase Bank - Wholesale
6. IndyMac Bancorp
5. MortgageIT
4. Sallie Mae
3. Meridias Capital
2. Doral Financial Corp.
1. Residential Capital, LLC
Call now for more information.
"Let Me Do The Worry AND The Work" while you relax and plan your future!
Vanessa Stalets
RE/MAX Elite - 615-661-4400
Brentwood TN Real Estate
Mortgage bond prices fell pushing mortgage interest rates higher. Rising inflation fears dominated trading. Oil prices hit all-time highs as the price of a barrel eclipsed $135. Fortunately the steep price increases subsided in overnight trading Thursday evening. Mortgage bonds were able to bounce back a bit Friday morning erasing some of the prior losses and helping rates recover.
For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/4 of a discount point.
The preliminary GDP data will be the most important event this week. Consumer confidence and the inflation data also have the potential to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. The bond market is closed Monday in honor of the Memorial Holiday. Expect market volatility when trading resumes Tuesday.
|
Economic Factors |
|||
|
Economic Indicator |
Release Date Time |
Consensus Estimate |
Analysis |
|
Memorial Day |
Monday, May 26, 2008 |
None |
Shortened week may lead to market volatility when trading resumes Tuesday morning. |
|
Consumer Confidence |
Tuesday, May 27, 2008 |
61.0 |
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
|
New Home Sales |
Tuesday, May 27, 2008 |
Down 1.1% |
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
Wednesday, May 28, 2008 |
Down 0.7% |
Important. An indication of the demand for |
|
Q1 Preliminary GDP |
Thursday, May 29, 2008 |
Up 0.9% |
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
|
Personal Income and Outlays |
Friday, May 30, 2008 |
Income up 0.2%, Outlays up 0.2% |
Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
|
PCE Core Inflation |
Friday, May 30, 2008 |
Up 0.1% |
Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve. |
|
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, May 30, 2008 |
60.2 |
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Trading This Week
Market conditions that often lead to mortgage interest rate volatility are thin trading and shortened trading weeks. If very few market participants are buying and selling bonds, the potential for short-term volatility is escalated. A large buyer or seller can execute trading orders that, without additional traders to buffer out the extreme buying or selling, can lead to swift market movements. In addition, shortened trading weeks have the potential to compress a week's worth of trading into fewer days. Bond traders often take defensive positions ahead of weekends and holidays to guard against unforeseen events that could possibly jeopardize their investments. This positioning can be beneficial or detrimental to mortgage interest rates. If investors sell stocks and buy mortgage-backed securities, mortgage interest rates will improve. However, if investors sell mortgage-backed securities and hold cash positions, mortgage interest rates will rise.
Holidays can often result in volatility as trading resumes following the extended close. This week could result in market swings that are favorable or negative in nature. Considering the heightened possibility for mortgage interest rate volatility, a cautious approach to interest rate exposure is prudent.
* Information courtesy Tonya Esquibel, WR Starkey Mortgage, Franklin TN*
Vanessa Stalets
Brentwood TN Real Estate
RE/MAX Elite
615-957-6333
615-661-4400
Good news for Brentwood TN Home buyers and the real estate market. Mortgage bond prices rose last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. Stocks fell which helped bonds rally. Trading remained very volatile. Record high oil prices tempered improvements in mortgage interest rates as the fear of inflation continued to dominate the financial markets. OPEC blamed speculators and a weak dollar while some analysts expressed supply concerns associated with unrest in Nigeria. Foreign demand for US debt securities dwindled. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 3/8 of a discount point.
The consumer price index data Wednesday will be the most important event this week. Retail sales, industrial production, capacity use, housing starts, and consumer sentiment data all have the potential to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. For more information, or to find a lender near you: Call Vanessa Stalets your Brentwood TN Real Estate leader. 615-957-6333
|
Economic Factors |
|||
|
Economic Indicator |
Release Date Time |
Consensus Estimate |
Analysis |
|
Retail Sales |
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 |
Unchanged |
Important. A measure of consumer demand. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
|
Business Inventories |
Tuesday, May 13, 2008 |
Up 0.5% |
Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates. |
|
Consumer Price Index |
Wednesday, May 14, 2008 |
Up 0.3%, Core up 0.2% |
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates. |
|
Industrial Production |
Thursday, May 15, 2008 |
Down 0.2% |
Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
|
Capacity Utilization |
Thursday, May 15, 2008 |
80.2% |
Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. A decrease may lead to lower rates. |
|
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
Thursday, May 15, 2008 |
None |
Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
|
Housing Starts |
Friday, May 16, 2008 |
Down 0.7% |
Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Larger than expected decrease may lead to lower rates. |
|
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, May 16, 2008 |
63.0 |
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Market Conditions
There is a Chinese proverb that states, "May you live in interesting times." It is often argued that the word interesting is meant to be a synonym for turbulent or dangerous. This phrase hits the bull's-eye given the current state of the financial markets.
While stocks and bonds are swinging around wildly there is some good news for Brentwood TN Real Estate and other markets as well. Interest rates for conforming and FHA/VA loans are still historically low by many standards, which is great news for first time home buyers in the Brentwood TN area.
However, low rates are not a given considering the escalating inflation fears that continue to dominate trading amid rising oil prices. Many analysts predict oil prices will continue to rise. While this doesn't automatically equate to higher mortgage interest rates, rising energy prices are usually viewed as inflationary. Inflation erodes the value of bonds causing bond prices to fall and rates to rise. Other investors believe slowing growth and the credit crisis will eventually stem the rising prices. This scenario would generally be positive for bonds, which always translates into a positive for mortgage rates and the Brentwood TN real estate industry.
*Information Courtesy Tonya Esquibel, WRStarkey Mortgage, Franklin TN*
Vanessa Stalets
Brentwood TN Real Estate
RE/MAX Elite
615-957-6333
615-661-4400
With the recent Mortgage Crisis still in full swing many Brentwood TN Real Estate buyers are confused about how to find out which lenders are sinking and which have already sunk. Over the last year hundreds of lending institutions have gone "belly up" or stopped retail lending due to the "credit crunch" default loan numbers increasing and poor lending habits to begin with. Here are the latest on the radar, watch to see where they go. For a list of the already fallen see Brentwood TN Finance on my Brentwood TN Real Estate site. Please remember that although there have been many "finance" changes there remain many strong and ethical lending institutions and with interest rates at a historical low, now is a great time to find one, get qualified and buy! Call me to find out more!
Lenders to Watch/Ailing20. Wilmington Finance
19. Bayview Lending Group, LLC
18. Chase Subprime - Wholesale
17. Homewide Lending Corporation
16. Thornburg Mortgage
15. American Equity Mortgage, Inc.
14. CTX Mortgage Company (Retail)
13. Chase Home Equity (Wholesale)
12. First Horizon Home Loans
11. Gateway Funding
10. BankUnited (Wholesale)
9. Casa Blanca Mortgage/Shearson
8. Chevy Chase Bank - Wholesale
7. IndyMac Bancorp
6. MortgageIT
5. Sallie Mae
4. Meridias Capital
3. Doral Financial Corp.
2. Evergreen Investment+Carnation Bank
1. Residential Capital, LLC
Vanessa Stalets
RE/MAX Elite
615-957-6333/ 615-661-4400
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