Tyler Wood ~ Big Bear Real Estate

Originally posted at The Big Bear Skinny.

The time it will take to sell a house in Big Bear dropped by 10 months in April 2008. With the pick up in home sales that we saw in March, the absorption rate for the Big Bear real estate market dropped from 32.72 months to sell to 22.80 months to sell.

This is encouraging news for home sellers though the market is still very heavily favored toward buyers. The market will need to get closer to a 1-3 month absorption rate in order to get back to a sellers market.

Now that we are heading into the spring and summer season for Big Bear, sales will pick up even more. But, so will the properties coming on the market. The total inventory of houses on the market is currently at 1094. This number could easily be 1500 by July 4th of this year. So, even if the number of sales pick up to 100 home sales per month, the number of homes on the market will still far outweigh the demand.

The number of sales per month needs to be closer to 200 for the market to see any kind of significant pick up.

Absorption Rate By Price Range

Absorption Rates By Area

Properties priced under $500,000 are selling the quickest while those between $500,000 and $1,000,000 are not faring as well.

Properties in Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, & Erwin Lake sold better as compared to Big Bear Lake Central, Lake Williams, Baldwin Lake, & Big Bear City.

These numbers change from month to month. Some of the price ranges and areas that are not doing well now have performed better in previous months.

If you are interested in how the real estate market in Big Bear is performing, be sure to sign up for my RSS feed or email newsletter.

Originally posted at The Big Bear Skinny.

The National Association of Realtors recently released a report on second home sales that was reported on by The Dallas Morning News.

The article states that second home sales nationwide dropped by more than 30% in 2007 when compared to 2006. This is pretty consistent with what we saw in the Big Bear real estate market in 2007. There were 1172 residential sales in 2006 as compared to 796 sales in 2007, a difference of 34%.

I noticed a few important points to take from the article as it relates to the Big Bear real estate market:

Second homes are discretionary purchases, and there is a natural tendency to pull back from big-ticket items in periods of uncertainty.

This seems relatively straight forward though we are still seeing some big ticket sales.

There were 45 sales in Big Bear over $1,000,000 in 2006 and 39 sales in 2007. That is only a drop of 13%. There have been 6 sales so far in 2008 over $1,000,000 and 4 properties in escrow right now.

There were 186 houses sold in 2006 priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 while there was 135 sales in the same price range for 2007. This a drop of 27%.

Houses sold under $500,000 in 2006 totaled 945, with 2007 numbers for this price range coming in at 623 homes sold. This is where the biggest drop was noticed, almost a 34% drop in sales.

Buyers simply adopted a wait-and-see attitude

We definitely noticed this mentality in Big Bear's prospective buyers over the past year. Buyers would come up and look at properties, find the perfect place, and then say,"we are going wait and see what happens with things." In a time of uncertainty, most people want to wait and see what is going to happen with the prices of homes, which is completely understandable.

But, it is during these times that good opportunities will present themselves so you have to be aware of this fact. By the time you realize we have hit the bottom of this market, it will be too late. The top of the market was late 2005 and no one knew until until mid 2006 and later. Once you find we've hit bottom, everyone knows. This changes all the dynamics of a buyer's market. Prices and buyer competition will again rise. Does this sound familiar?

Even with the slowdowns, a significant number of residential properties purchased in 2007 – almost one third of total sales – were acquired as second homes.

This is a significant number when you look at it. For every 3 home sales in the U.S last year, 1 was a second home. This should only increase as more and more Boomers start thinking about retirement. Also, as the world population continues to grow everyday, many people are going to want the cabin in the woods to get away from it (and them) all.

Big Bear is uniquely situated to capitalize on both of these aspects. With over 20+ million people in the Southern CA area, Big Bear and Lake Arrowhead are really the only two options within a few hours drive. And given that we are surrounded by the National Forest, there are only so many options that will be available.

The median price of vacation homes purchased nationwide in 2007 was $195,000, down 2.5 percent from 2006.

The median price for homes purchased in Big Bear in 2007 was $309,950, down 3% from the median price of $319,400 in 2006.

Vacation home buyers appear to be more bullish about the housing market. About 80 percent second-home buyers surveyed last year said they considered it a good time to invest in real estate. That compares with about 60 percent of primary home buyers who had that view of the market.

Interesting point given that most of them have been waiting to see what happens with this market. The current rumblings out there that were are hitting bottom now is bringing some of the fence sitters out to buy. It is still too earlier to tell but I expect things to start getting better in the next 12-24 months.

A peak of population is moving through the prime years for buying recreational property.

The Baby Boomer generation should continue to drive second home and vacation homes sales for years to come. Boomers are the biggest generation from a population standpoint. This, coupled with the fact that many Boomers are now getting the money from their parents passing away, a good amount of this money will be spent on discretionary items like second homes.

Though it may be slow now, pent up demand will catch up and sales are certain to follow.

Knowledge and information are key components of making any smart decision. While all real estate values, customs, and trends are determined by local standards and economic forces, there are still some similarities shared by all second home markets.

Originally posted at The Big Bear Skinny.

Below is a market update for residential properties in the Big Bear Valley during the week of March 31 to April 6.

New listings and pending sales were up from the previous week while closed sales were down.

The majority of closed sales continue to occur in the Big Bear Lake areas of Boulder Bay, Gilner Point, Ironwood Estates, Eagle Point, Fox Farm and Moonridge. The areas of Big Bear City, Erwin Lake, Baldwin Lake, Lake Williams and Sugarloaf are still seeing very few sales.

Average days on the market for closed sales this week was 138 days and the average list price to sale price ratio was 94%. The median sales price was $229,000. These are good numbers to keep in mind when understanding the real estate market in Big Bear.

This information is updated on a weekly and monthly basis. Be sure to check back or sign up for my email newsletter to be kept informed on the real estate market conditions in Big Bear.

* Information updated weekly, courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. This update includes MLS data from areas including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, Fawnskin & Baldwin Lake. It does not include data from areas in the Big Bear MLS that are located outside of the Big Bear area. Information is deemed reliable but cannot be guaranteed.

Originally posted at The Big Bear Skinny.

Below is an update for the Big Bear real estate market as of 4/7/2008.

The residential properties listed for sale in Big Bear are up 11 from 1078 homes for sale to 1089 total.

The number of houses in escrow are up 16 from last week to 107 while sales year to date now stand at 114 Big Bear homes sold since the beginning of the year, up 7 from last week.

Vacant land listings in Big Bear are up by 3 to 340 parcels now for sale. The number of pending sales are up 2 from last week for a total of 28 escrows for vacant land. There were no new closed sales so year to date sales for vacant land still stand at 16 closed sales, which is still very slow as compared to the 114 houses sold.

The number of condos for sale in Big Bear was up 2 for a total of 64 while the number of pending sales was down 1. The number of condos sold in Big Bear remained the same at 2 closed sales. Only 2 sales so far this year for condos.....ouch. Selling a condo on Big Bear still remains a difficult task.

The Government Lease properties in Big Bear have remained the same for the past two months. There are still 4 for sale, 1 pending sale, and 1 closed sale this year for the these types of cabins.

The number of commercial & residential investment opportunities on the market this week remained the same. There is 1 less pending sale, though sales for the year are up 1 to 6 total for the year.

Business opportunity listings are up 4 from last week to 16 for sale while sales and pending escrows remained the same.

See last week's Big Bear real estate market numbers.

Be sure to check back here every Monday for your Big Bear Market Update or click here to get this emailed to you every week.

* Information updated weekly, courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. This update includes MLS data from areas including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, Fawnskin & Baldwin Lake. It does not include data from areas in the Big Bear MLS that are located outside of the Big Bear area.

Originally posted at The Big Bear Skinny.

The Big Bear real estate market saw an increase in homes sold in the month of March with a total of 46 homes sold. Historically speaking, this is still considered very slow sales activity, though it is nearly 60% higher than January and 50% higher than February of this year.

The median sales price for homes sold in the month of March also increased, going up nearly 8% ($282,000) as compared to the previous month ($260,000). The median sales price is still down 2% from the January median sales price ($287,500).

While there were more homes this past month, they are still far off the sales numbers from 2006 & 2007. March 2008 home sales were down 54% as compared to March 2006 and down 44% to that of March 2007.

In addition, the median sales price for homes in Big Bear for March 2008 was down 13% and 10% for 2006 and 2007 respectively.  

We are heading into our summer selling season so these monthly sales numbers should increase. It will be interesting to see how they compare to 2007 sales numbers. Be sure to check back monthly to keep tabs or sign up here to get Big Bear real estate market updates sent to you via email.

* Note: The chart above will be updated on a monthly basis. It represents single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does not include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area.