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William Staney

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2009 Tax Credit Helps First-Time Buyers Become Home Owners

10-02-09
William Staney

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Market Update 10/2/2009

10-02-09
William Staney

MBS prices are up slightly (FNMA 43.50 +2/32) after a sharp drive upward early in the session. The Nonfarm payroll print came in far worse than expected (-263k vs. -175k est.). This was likely the reason for the initial spike this morning. Factory Orders hit worse than expected as well (-0.8% vs. 0.0% est.). All of this should point to downward pressure on rates, yet we see the market having trouble holding a rally. It is possible that the "whispers" heard on the street yesterday calling for a far worse than expected jobs report may have contributed to yesterday's rally. So, today's poor employment report may have already been, at least partially, priced into the market; thus, the difficulty in finding upward momentum today. The Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 9.8%.

Next week is light on data, but we have Treasury Auctions on tap to ensure that things stay interesting. For data, we have ISM Services (est. 50.0) on Monday, Consumer Credit (est. -9.5 Bil.) and the Treasury Budget on Wednesday, Initial Claims and Wholesale Inventories (est. -1.0%) on Thursday, and the Trade Balance (est. -32.9 Bil.) on Friday. Of these, the ISM Services and the Initial Claims release will likely be the potential market movers. The real news will be the auctions. The US Treasury will auction another record offering consisting of $39 Bil of 3yr notes (Tues), $20 Bil in 10yr notes (Wed.) and $12 Bil. in 30yr notes (Thurs). Watch again for signs of change in the demand for this and other debt instruments. A perceived weakening of demand may push rates higher, while a solid performance may keep rates in check.

Have a great weekend!

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

www.wjbradley.com

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Market Update - 10/1/2009

10-01-09
William Staney

MBS prices are on a steep climb today (FNMA 4.50 +11/32) after a boring day yesterday (FNMA 4.50 -1/32). The stock market is off quite a bit today (Dow -149.94, S&P -19.26). The major economic data released today was mostly negative, thus bond-positive. ISM missed quite a bit (52.6 vs. 54.0 est.) and Initial Claims print came in heavy (551k vs. 535k est.). However, some of the smaller data was mixed to positive. Personal Income beat slightly (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.), Construction Spending was up more than expected (0.8% vs. -0.2%), and Pending Home Sales rose 6.4% vs. a 1.0% estimate. As I write this, Ben Bernanke is testifying before the House on Financial Regulation. The bond markets seem pleased with his remarks. Watch for news on his testimony to hit news wires very shortly and for the contents to be reviewed closely for signals, hints, and hidden meaning.

Tomorrow, Friday, 10/2 has the Granddaddy of all economic data, the US Employment Report. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to drop 180k jobs this time around. Consensus is on a 1/10th of a percent increase in the Unemployment rate to 9.8%, from the previous 9.7% reading. Watch for the headline numbers to stir conversation if they come in out of whack, but also look for the details of these reports to be run through the ringer. With eyes really focusing on employment as the last piece of the puzzle in our avoiding economic depression, every factor in the employment report will be watched for strength/weakness. Look for the data to be digested during the day and for details to potentially move markets.

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

www.wjbradley.com

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My Blogs

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$8k Tax Credit at a Glance

09-22-09
William Staney

$8,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit at a Glance

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  • The tax credit is for first-time home buyers only. For the tax credit program, the IRS defines a first-time home buyer as someone who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase.
  • The tax credit does not have to be repaid.
  • The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the home’s purchase price up to a maximum of $8,000.
  • The credit is available for homes purchased on or after January 1, 2009 and before December 1, 2009.
  • Single taxpayers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000 qualify for the full tax credit.

Video answering frequently asked Questions on First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit:

***$8k TAX CREDIT EXPIRING NOV 30th*** If you plan to take advantage you MUST find a home and submit your loan documents by OCTOBER 20th....THAT IS LESS THAN A MONTH AWAY!!! Contact me now to get a pre-qualification for a home loan and take advantage of this program before it expires! There has been no signs that the program will be extended. Ignore the rumors...holding out with the hopes the program will be extended is taking a HUGE chance of throwing away $8,000 dollars of free government money!

Will Staney

Sr. Mortgage Banker

WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital

12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103

Austin, TX 78759

(512) 377-1468 Office

(512) 644-1587 Cell

(866) 953-0155 Fax

www.wjbradley.com

My Twitter

My Blogs

My Facebook Business Page

My Linkedin

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Weekly Economic Round-Up 9-22-09

09-22-09
William Staney

In the News

Building permits for privately owned housing units reached a seasonally adjusted rate of 579,000 for August, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. August’s rate was 2.7 percent above the revised July rate of 564,000, but 32.4 percent below the August 2008 estimate of 857,000. Permits for single-family homes during August were at a rate of 462,000, which was 0.2 percent below July’s figure of 463,000.

Housing starts for privately owned homes during August hit a seasonally adjusted rate of 598,000, 1.5 percent over July’s revised estimate of 589,000, but still 29.6 percent below August 2008’s rate of 849,000. In line with the bureau’s permit data, starts for single-family homes in August were at a rate of 479,000, which was a solid three percent below July’s revised rate of 494,000.

The consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau reported the 0.4 jump was driven by a 9.1 percent rise in its gasoline index, which accounted for nearly the entire advance in the energy index, and more than 80 percent of the overall increase for consumers. Despite August's rise, the CPI-U index has decreased 1.5 percent over the last 12 months, and the bureau's gasoline index has dropped 30 percent over the last 12 months.

Energy prices had a similar impact on producer prices. The producer price index for finished goods advanced 1.7 percent (seasonally adjusted) during August, according to the Bureau, which reported that more than 90 percent of the finished goods price jump was due to higher energy prices, which moved up 8 percent for producers.

While energy prices might have climbed, advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August (adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes) reached $351.4 billion, an increase of 2.7 over July, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The gain was chalked up in large part to the government’s Cash for Clunkers program, which gave auto sales an 11.9 percent jump over July, and gas stations, which came in with a 5.1 percent increase from July.

This week, watch the business headlines for news on leading economic indicators (Sept. 21) from The Conference Board; existing home sales (Sept. 24) from the National Association of REALTORS®; and new home sales (Sept. 25) and durable goods orders (Sept. 25) from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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