MBS prices are up AGAIN today (FNMA 4.50 +7/32) in a seemingly never-ending rally. The auctions went very well this week, adding fuel to a rally. This rally has been supported by the fact that, despite encouraging economic news, market watchers are not convinced that a recovery is near, nor are they worried about inflation being a problem any time soon. Today's news too would look to be bond-negative, with Import prices up 0.4%, export prices up 0.8%, and Consumer Sentiment coming in higher than expected at 70.2 (est. was 69.0). Yet, we see a continued rally. While there is some FED manipulation of prices going on here, there is a clear market feeling that rates may go lower and may stay low for a while. However, we should not become complacent in this, as this market may turn, and may do so quickly. Keep in mind that we are still in low-volume trade, so moves can happen suddenly and a "pile-on" effect can cause moves to be severe.
Next week brings some Price, Sales, Production, Treasury, and Housing data, along with the weekly Jobless print. Producer Price info comes out Tuesday (PPI est. 0.8%, Core PPI est. 0.1%), as does Retail Sales (est. 1.6%). Wednesday has Consumer Price numbers (CPI est. 0.4%, Core CPI est. 0.1%) and Industrial Production (est. 0.7%) on tap. On Thursday, we have Housing Starts (est. 588k), Jobless Claims (est. 550k), the Philly Fed Index, and a Treasury Announcement. Nothing on Friday. As mentioned above, market watchers seem steadfast in their belief that the economy is still in retraction mode and that inflation is not something to worry about until at least the next decade. All of the above will together help prop up or push down the idea that the economy is seeing signs of recovery, and fuel or dispel the fears of inflation.
Have a great weekend!
Will Staney
Sr. Mortgage Banker
WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital
12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103
Austin, TX 78759
(512) 377-1468 Office
(512) 644-1587 Cell
(866) 953-0155 Fax
I do a social media marketing class here in Austin, TX for Realtors and always love talking about and sharing great tools and tips for helping my referral partners grow and market their business through social media. This is a video I commonly show in my class. It is a great example of a Realtor using social media to market herself the right way. Just to give you an idea of your goals when building your social media marketing campaign. Hope this helps! Needing additional tips and tricks? Social Media site suggestions? Personal Marketing Consultation? Drop me a line or link to me on any of the sites in my signature below and I'd be glad to help.
*Will Staney is a Mortgage Banker in Austin, TX with half a decade of experience in Residential Mortgages as well as a degree in Mass Communications -Interactive Marketing/Advertising from Texas State University*
Will Staney
Sr. Mortgage Banker
WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital
12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103
Austin, TX 78759
(512) 377-1468 Office
(512) 644-1587 Cell
(866) 953-0155 Fax
Will Staney's Facebook Business Page
MBS prices are down slightly (FNMA 4.50 -3/32) on limited market-moving data. Consumer Confidence came in at 54.1 vs. the street estimate of 48.0. While this is a high-side miss, the print has done little to influence markets. All eyes are on the $42 Bil. 2 year Treasury auction results to be announced at 11 am MT (1 pm ET). Again, a poor to average showing may push rates higher, while a strong showing may force buying (rates lower). A 'strong' showing will show a bid-to-cover better than 2.50 and an indirect participation (foreign buyer) percentage over 50%. Anything south of these numbers will likely put immediate upward pressure on rates.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, 8/26 brings Durable Orders (est. 3.2%), New Home Sales (est. 390k), and the 5 year Treasury auction. The Durable Goods number has the potential to move markets, as it is a fairly reliable leading indicator of demand and business investment. A down-side surprise here may spark a drop in rates, while a print far exceeding 3.2% may push the stock market and rates higher. New Home Sales also has the ability to push rates around. Most recent housing data has been relatively bright. If this number bucks this trend, down rates may go. If in-line, or worse than expected, we may see a pull-back in interest rates. As usual, the 2 year auction today will be watched closely, the 5 year tomorrow even more so, and the 7 year on Thursday will be the Treasury's curtain call for the week.
Will Staney
Sr. Mortgage Banker
WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital
12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103
Austin, TX 78759
(512) 377-1468 Office
(512) 644-1587 Cell
(866) 953-0155 Fax
MBS prices are up on the day (FNMA 4.50 +4/32), but well below this morning's highs of +14/32. No economic data has been or will be released, today. Thin trade and "safety" buying has been holding prices high despite some gains in the stock markets.
Tomorrow, Thursday, 8/20 brings weekly Jobless Claims Data (est. 550k), The Philadelphia FED Index (est. -2.0), and a Treasury Announcement. Market watchers will continue to track jobless data, looking for further signs that the job market is stabilizing. The Philly FED number offers color on manufacturing business activity in the PA, DE, NJ region. Manufacturing activity is typically a precursor to future economic conditions. This print is unlikely to move the market, but may if the number is far from the expected -2.0. The Treasury Announcement will be closely monitored, as it will likely show continued need for the Treasury to auction record amounts of debt to fuel ongoing economic rescue and bailout efforts. The markets expect huge auctions in the future, so there should be no surprises here, but watch for bond traders to remark on the detail contained in the announcement, set to post at 11am ET (9am MT).
Will Staney
Sr. Mortgage Banker
WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital
12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103
Austin, TX 78759
(512) 377-1468 Office
(512) 644-1587 Cell
(866) 953-0155 Fax
MBS prices are up this morning (FNMA 4.50 +8/32) after a lackluster showing yesterday (FNMA 4.50 -2/32). As expected, the FED left interest rates unchanged, and the text of their announcement offered little to no surprises. Demand in the 10 year Treasury Auction was ok, but not great, with a 2.49 bid-to-cover (anything above 2.00 is solid) and a 45.7% "indirect" bidder take (foreign investor take). the market looks to have overreacted a bit to the news and may be giving some of this ground back today. Also moving the bonds today are worse than expected economic data in Retail Sales (-0.1% vs. +0.7 expected) and Initial Jobless Claims (558k vs. 550k estimate). The Jobless number is very close to target, but the Retails Sales number may have caught some off-guard. All economic data has been released for the day, but watch for the record $15 Bil. 30 year Treasury auction to stir markets. Results are expected at 1pm ET (11am MT). If the last few auctions are any guide, anything short of a stellar performance will likely send rates higher.
Tomorrow, Friday, 8/14 brings some Consumer Price Data (CPI est. 0.0%, Core CPI est. 0.1%), Industrial Production (est. 0.4%), and Consumer Sentiment (est. 68.5); all are scheduled to be released on or before 8am MT (10am ET). CPI will be examined closely for the ugly head of inflation. An overly lofty CPI number could send rates higher, as inflation almost always comes along with an rising rate environment. A downside surprise may cause a dip in rates. Industrial Production will be watched for signs of improving economic conditions. As always, any good news here could be bad news for mortgage rates. The Consumer Sentiment Number is not a great indicator of economic activity, but can give some insight into the mind of the American Consumer. As we know, consumer spending makes up around 70% of all US economic activity. There should be little reaction to this print, but it should be watched for extreme variance from the target of 68.5.
Will Staney
Sr. Mortgage Banker
WJ Bradley Mortgage Capital
12444 Research Blvd. Ste. 103
Austin, TX 78759
(512) 377-1468 Office
(512) 644-1587 Cell
(866) 953-0155 Fax
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