Bill Mews

December 10, 2008 - Sales were down 30.5% in November compared to a year ago, according to housing statistics released by the MLS today.With the melt-down on Wall Street over the last 8-weeks, it appears buyers are sitting on their hands when considering the real estate market.

The housing market was showing improvement this fall. We had the first year-over-year increase in sales for 2008 in September, when sales rose 3.1% above September 2007. And, in October sales were only down 8.2%, year-to-year.

This was part of an expected increase in activity in the latter part of 2008, due to an increase in affordability and value for buyers compared to past years. However, Wall Street threw a wrench into things and buyers have decided to play "wait and see."

Buyers seem to be waiting to see what kind of additional stimulus packages the new Obama administration may come out with, if interest rates are headed down, and evaluating their job security.

This leads us to conclude that the plunge due to Wall Street will be a relatively short-lived phenomena; because, while there are several questions about where the overall economy is headed, we do know that household formation is continuing, interest rates are very generous, and housing prices are attractive in southeastern Wisconsin.

We have the ingredients for a housing recovery in the near future, but how soon that recovery comes is the question. It doesn't appear that the recovery will be a bounce back to 2005 or 2006 prices and sales; rather it will probably be a more sustained increase in activity similar to what we saw in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

In these confusing times, consumers should remember to "Start With A REALTOR®" before consulting with a lender or other housing professional.

Here are some of the highlights of the November 2008 MLS Statistics Report:
Listings

· Listings were down for the 16th straight month. The 32,518 listings accumulated thus far in 2008 puts the year on pace for total listings in the range of 2005.

Sales

· Sales were down 30.5% compared to November 2007 (783 vs. 1,126) and -37.7% compared to 2006 (1,256).

Market fundamentals are uncertain

· National Association of REALTORS Economist, Lawrence Yun stated "Yes, we are in the midst of one of the worst financial crises in a generation," in his recent article, "Amidst the Confusion, Some Positive Signs." Read more at REALTOR.org Economist Commentary.

· Interest rates are excellent historically. Buyers can expect rates in the range of 5.5% for a 30-year fixed mortgage and 5.125% for a 15-year fixed note.

Inventory

· We currently have 19.6 months of inventory, with 15,335 active residential listings in the metro area. This is up from the 14.9 months reported in the October analysis, but not unusual for this time of year as sales take a break for the holidays. Fall and winter inventory usually is higher due to lower demand.

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The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel also had a story on this in the December 11, 2008 Business section. Click on the following link for the story:
http://www.jsonline.com/business/35905759.html

This was while we were waiting to start the parade route in the 2008 Menomonee Falls Christmas parade. We had the RE/MAX balloon basket with us. It was a great hit with the parade watchers - especially when he lit the flame up.

Well, here we are the 8th of December and we're getting more snow! I've heard so many people over the last week or so comment about how they are tired of the snow already. I guess I'd have to say that I'm probably in the minority and love the snow. Yeah, last year I started to get a bit tired of the snow toward the end of the season, but I was hoping to break the snowfall record (we were so close, we might as well have broken it)! Personally, I'd rather have the snow than super cold temperatures. Hopefully, after this next storm the temps won't drop to sub-zero. The teachers at our kids' school are hoping for a snow day tomorrow - one of them said she had a lot to get done at home. I know my kids are hoping for one too.

Last year I had so much fun sledding with our kids and hope to do some more this year. It seemed like last year was the first year in a long time that we actually had enough snow to sled/tube. I commented to my wife that it was more like the winters I remembered as a kid. It certainly seems like we used to get more snow than we have in recent years (last year notwithstanding). I guess I just like to keep a positive outlook on things. When I turned 40, I told my friends and family that you're only as old as you feel and I didn't feel 40 (at least what I thought 40 was supposed to feel like). That's probably why I don't mind the snow. It's a part of living in WI, you know it's going to happen, you can't do anything about it, so enjoy it. Just remind me of that when I'm out shoveling the 13th foot of snow in January!

With the snow coming, just remember to slow down, give the snow plows their space and be safe! Also, take some time to enjoy the snow with your kids, they only stay young for so long and eventually they won't like the snow either.

My family moved to Germantown when I was starting the 2nd grade. That was about 33 years ago. I lived there until I got married in 1991. During that time, Germantown has grown significantly both in size and in population. The population in 1980 was 10,729 (I still remember the signs announcing it along the roadsides). By 2000, it had grown to 18,260. They call themselves the Gateway to Washington County. Neighbors to Germantown include Mequon, Menomonee Falls, Richfield and Milwaukee.

SCHOOLS - Germantown now has four elementary schools, one middle and one high school serving almost 4,000 students. You can visit http://www.germantown.k12.wi.us/ for more information about the school system.

BUSINESS - The Village of Germantown is home to several business parks. The most recent one to be developed has 250 acres and is located between Mequon and Donges Bay Roads approximately 2 miles west of US HWY 41/45. Visit http://www.mlgcommercial.com/services/ourServices.cfm?page=BizParkDetail&BPPrefix=GER for more information about the Germantown Business Park.

RECREATION - Ten parks are within the borders of Germantown. They include everything from sand volleyball courts, playground equipment, baseball diamonds, tennis courts and even a small water park. You can visit http://www.village.germantown.wi.us/ and click on the Park & Recreation link for more information.

LIBRARY - The Germantown library is part of the SHARE program which means your Germantown library card can be used in every library in Washington, Doge, Jefferson, Walworth and Racine counties making it one powerful card! The library was first opened in 1963 and has grown from about 2,000 to over 100,000 volumes. The current location on Mequon Road has been the library's home since 2002. You can go to http://www.germantownlibrarywi.org/index.htm for more information about the library and even search for your favorite book.

If you're interested in more information about the Village of Germantown, check out the following links:

http://www.village.germantown.wi.us/

http://www.americantowns.com/wi/germantown

http://www.germantownnow.com/

An editorial in today's Milwaukee Journal Sentinel got my attention. It was about Linking homes and jobs using a housing trust fund in Waukesha County. I had never heard of a Housing Trust Fund before so I started searching online. (http://www.jsonline.com/news/opinion/35096609.html)

Did you know that Milwaukee County set up a trust fund back in 2006? See the following article for details: http://www.interfaithconference.org/Newsletter_207.pdf

The purpose of a Housing Trust Fund is to help buyers that normally couldn't afford to purchase a property near their place of work. For example, teachers or firefighters that have to live in their municipality but don't make enough money to purchase a home there. There is an kickoff event coming up on December 2, 2008 at the Steinhafels superstore on County F. The event is 5:30-7pm.

Here are a number of websites related to the Waukesha County Trust Fund:

http://sites.google.com/site/sophiawaukesha/bfosscamp

http://www.interfaithconference.org/housing_trust_fund.htm

http://www.communitychange.org/our-projects/htf