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Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO

What's Really Behind Less Home Inventory?

There is no surprise across the nation that the inventory of the number of Atlanta homes for sale is down considerably. While many in real estate are rejoicing in the streets over this supposed sign of recovery, they are not allowing themselves to consider why this has really happened. It is not an anomaly, and it does not mean that the lack of inventory bodes well for the near future of Atlanta real estate. For those that are informed, there is an acknowledgement that Atlanta home buying patterns are being refined and will not return to what many in real estate are expecting. We may not see things return to the way they were for quite some time...if at all.

First of all there are many reasons why there are fewer Atlanta homes for sale for sale. Here are just a few:

  • Foreclosures: There is a much higher shadow inventory of already foreclosed homes that are on the sidelines because if they were all on the market at the same time - home prices would collapse. The Federal government has introduced neighborhood price stabilization plans to prop up the values of homes - to protect the banks from failure.
  • No Equity: Homeowners have refinanced their homes and there is no equity for them to sell and move up or trade down.
  • Negative Equity: Homeowners have refinanced their Atlanta homes and effectively re-affirmed bad debt. They have refinanced for more than the home is worth (125%), and they still have negative equity in neighborhoods were prices are declining. This pool of buyers is locked out of the real estate market until home values rise once more.
  • Unemployment: Underemployment and those that fear they may soon be unemployed are not in the home buying frame of mind. These buyers are locked psychologically out of the market until jobs are created and unemployment has gone back to normal levels. Full employment as we were used to is not expected again for another 10 years. The real unemplyment rate nationally is estimated at over 16-17%.
  • First time buyers - the pool of buyers has been exhausted. The concept is too narrow in focus and limited in scope to really work.
  • There are no buyers: and Atlanta home sellers have resigned themselves to the fact that trying to sell a home in this current market is suicide. Sellers have taken their home off the market in hopes that some future date many be more advantageous for them to sell their home on their terms. (If buyers are not coming into the market in droves with historic 30 year fixed rate loans are available with tax credits - we're in big trouble!)
  • Real estate speculators and flippers have gotten a reality check - they cannot sell in this current market and break even. Fewer seasoned investors are entering the market - many have opted to rent their properties.
  • Lease Purchase Agreements: Many desperate Atlanta home sellers think they have an opportunity in lease purchase. They do not, since it has been my experience that over 95% of all lease purchases will never close. That applies even more in this current market - bad or damaged credit will have an even rougher time obtaining a mortgage in the coming years.
  • Poor advice from Realtors: The markets in the past few years have been inundated with many new Atlanta real estate agents that have no experience to draw on. They are offering advice that is not sound, and the sellers and buyers are following it. This plethora of new Atlanta real estate agents during our Atlanta real estate bubble has added a hugh dysfunctional component into this current real estate market. Homes are still selling, and many sellers are still in positive equity positions.
  • Rentals: - Homeowners that have rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic have decided that they will rent their homes until times improve.

Georgia Bank Failures - United Security Bank, Sparta, GA Fails

United Security Bank, Sparta, GA failed this weekend. United Security Bank had $157 million in assets and $150 million in deposits and two branches, one branch operatedas the including the branch in Woodstock, GA that operated as Bank of Woodstock. The bank, of Moultrie, Ga., assumed the assets and deposits of the failed bank. United Security Bank failure is expected to cost the FDIC fund an estimated $58 million. The failure of United Security Bank makes the 21st Georgia bank failure this year>Gerogia has had more bank failures than in any other state.


The FDIC press release:

"On Friday, November 6, 2009, United Security Bank, Sparta, GA (including the branch that operated as the Bank of Woodstock) was closed by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver "

Alpharetta GA Real Estate - Search Homes, Condos, Town Homes, Commercial

Atlanta-Alpharetta MAPAlpharetta GA is a city in located in north Fulton County, Georgia, 26 miles form the city of Atlanta via the GA 400. The estimated 2008 Alpharetta's population was 49,903. Alpharetta began as a campground, originally known as New Prospect Camp Ground until late 1858. Officially chartered on December 11 1958. The name 'Alpharetta' (supposedly Greek for "first town") served as the county seat of Milton County until the end of 1931 when Milton was merged with Fulton County to avoid bankruptcy during the Great Depression.

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Bad Credit? You Can Get A Mortgage, But You'll Pay Dearly for It!

Need a mortgage, and have bad credit? You can probably still get a loan, but you are going to pay dearly for it. A loan officer explained the rating system for mortgage rates based on FICO or credit scores and the cost to borrow. While we are used to buyers shopping different lenders for loans, a lot has changed in just a short time. It may be pointless for buyers to shop for better rates if their credit is not the best under this system. It may be like a dog chasing their tail and going nowhere especially if they have bad, damaged or impaired credit. Investors have implemented, "Risk Based Adjustments." Simply stated "Risk Based Adjustments" is the relationship between the an individuals credit score and the loan to value. The higher the credit score the better the LTV. An example: a customer with a 740+ MID FICO will get the best Loan to Value (LTV) adjustment, 95% LTV with no hits to the rates. As the FICO score of the individual applying for the loan goes down so does the Loan to Value, 680-699 scores will be limited to a 90% LTV and a .75 hit to the rate. The lowest acceptable score that will be accepted is the 620 - 639 scores, and even though you can still get the 90% LTV, there is a whopping 2.75 hit to the rate. This confirms that investors are willing to lend, but the customer will pay for it. I thought this was very interesting, and even though I do not make loans, I like to keep abreast of the current trends.

Real Estate bar Camp RDU in Cary NC Friday November 6, 2009 From 9AM - 4PM

I am anxiously counting down the moments to the Real Estate bar Camp RDU in Cary NC forward this coming Friday November 6, 2009. I will arrive with my wife Ellen tomorrow evening. I look forward to meeting a lot of new friends and Active Rainers I've not met in person yet! Although I've spone at many reale state conventions, retreats and office get togethers, this will be my first Real Estate bar Camp. I will be participating as a Thought Leader and will be doing a session entitled "Strategizing Internet Profit with Website & Real Estate Blogging" This will be a basics session that will start with the fundamentals of a successful real estate web business in everyday plain language. I am sure I will learn a lot from this session.

Active Rainers - Please Say "Hello" and Identify Yourselves!