Redfin CEO, Glen Kelman had this to say about the market - Our deals over the past two months have been closing at 96.2 percent of list. Agents on both sides of the deal have plenty of work to do to bring the parties together. As listing agents price properties more aggressively, there’s less room to negotiate.
One of our best agents, Erin Eckert, noticed new teaser pricing: low-priced listings attracting eight or even, in one case, 13 offers. Some buyers bid on these properties assuming they can still ask for a further discount, but the listing agent priced the property to create an auction; the final price is often actually a premium to list price. Maybe this means we’ve found, for now, a bottom. Or maybe not.
Buyer activity has certainly increased. Since our last update, Orange County traffic on our site is up 110 percent, faster than any other that Redfin serves.
In part, this is due to more buyers, but, in part, it is due to more activity from those buyers: Properties (5.91) evaluated on each visit to our site are up 16 percent over the past month, a fairly steep increase. Generally, Orange County buyers visit more properties online than any other visitor on our site.
Comparing Feb. 15-March 14 to Jan. 15-Feb. 14, visitors making offers on Orange County properties increased about 13 percent. A nice increase, but one that hardly corresponds to the 110 percent increase in online search activity.
This tells us a lot of O.C. folks are just kicking the tires. Two weeks ago, we saw an 83 percent increase in offers over our per-week average for the past month, but this may be an anomaly, not a long-term trend.
Buyers we are seeing are unlikely to stabilize prices: Over the past two months, 50 percent of our offers have been on short sales, where a house is listed for less than the owner owes the bank. February data in the MLS serving Orange County shows 23 percent of the listings as short sales, but just 11.6 percent of pending deals are short sales. These properties are much more difficult to buy and sell, mostly because the bank dawdles on approving the deal while the owner continues to pay his mortgage. It seems like buyers haven’t really figured this out yet.
Excluding those short sales, where it’s perilous to count any chickens before they hatch, our close rate on deals has remained around 20 percent since our February posting here. Of all the markets Redfin serves, none has a lower close rate than Orange County. We think it’s a reflection of a rapidly changing, high-anxiety market.
For more great Orange County market insight and industry news visit Laguna Niguel Real Estate or view the Orange County Market Trends at Orange County Real Estate.
Listen to Zen's Laguna Niguel Real Estate Podcast available 24/7.
SEARCH ORANGE COUNTY'S BEST HOMES at http://www.ocdreamhomesandland.com/
Thomas has a curious “market time” benchmark that calculates how many months it theoretically takes to sell all the inventory in the local MLS for-sale listings at the current pace of pending deals put in escrow. And guess what’s the “hottest” housing niche, by this measure of relative demand vs. supply? Properties listed as “foreclosures” in the MLS.
As of last Thursday, there were 635 properties listed by agents as “foreclosures” (typically, bank-owned houses) in escrow vs. 1,060 for sale, or a “market time” of 1.67 months. Compare that to the countywide total for all homes of 2,285 in escrow (best in 18 months) vs. 15,474 for sale, or a “market time” of 6.77 months.
Foreclosures are even hotter than the best-selling niche by price, housing under a half-million bucks where 1,244 are in escrow vs. 7,138 for sale, or a “market time” of 5.74 months. Or the hottest towns: Aliso Viejo (77 in escrow vs. 313 for sale, or a “market time” of 4.06 months); Cypress (32 in escrow vs. 136 for sale, or a “market time” of 4.25 months; or Lake Forest (74 in escrow vs. 347 for sale, or a “market time” of 4.69 months.)
Not all distressed properties are selling well, though. Short sales, where lenders agree to take less than they’re owed in a sale, are seemingly of low desirability. By Thomas’ math, 404 homes listed by agents as short sales are in escrow vs. 4,281 for sale, or a “market time” of 10.6 months. Almost 10 times the foreclosure sales/inventory pace! The catch with many “short sales” is that lenders are often fickle and slow to agree to these kind of money-losing deals for them.
Compare that to the slowest selling towns — Newport Beach (33 in escrow vs. 585 for sale, or a “market time” of 17.73 months) or Laguna Beach (15 in escrow vs. 307 for sale, or a “market time” of 20.47 months) or the county’s slowest selling price niche, homes above $4 million (10 in escrow vs. 284 for sale, or a “market time” of 28.4 months.)
For more great Orange County market insight and industry news visit Laguna Niguel Real Estate or view the Orange County Market Trends at Orange County Real Estate.
Listen to Zen's Laguna Niguel Real Estate Podcast available 24/7.
SEARCH ORANGE COUNTY'S BEST HOMES at http://www.ocdreamhomesandland.com/
As of April 2nd, 2008 according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) the total number of active listings in San Clemente totaled 545 homes (condos, townhomes and single family homes). This is down 24 homes from February 2008 with a total of 521 homes on the market. We have seen a nice pick up in Orange County home sales in February and March of 2008.
The inventory numbers are holding steady which is a good sign for the market. The FED cut interest rates by .75 basis points in March. This will help keep interest rates fairly low as the bond market decides what to do next. The new conforming loan limits were announced in March. The new conforming loan limit is now $729,750. This will definitely help buyers and sellers in the Orange County housing market. The former conforming rate was $417,000 which was well below the median priced home of $530,000.
For more great Orange County market insight and industry news visit Laguna Niguel Real Estate or view the Orange County Market Trends at Orange County Real Estate.
Listen to Zen's Laguna Niguel Real Estate Podcast available 24/7.
SEARCH ORANGE COUNTY'S BEST HOMES at http://www.ocdreamhomesandland.com/
As of April 2nd, 2008 according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) the total number of active listings in Laguna Beach totaled 314 homes (condos, townhomes and single family homes). This is down 129 homes from February 2008 with a total of 443 homes on the market. We have seen a nice pick up in Orange County home sales in February and March of 2008.
The inventory numbers are holding steady which is a good sign for the market. The FED cut interest rates by .75 basis points in March. This will help keep interest rates fairly low as the bond market decides what to do next. The new conforming loan limits were announced in March. The new conforming loan limit is now $729,750. This will definitely help buyers and sellers in the Orange County housing market. The former conforming rate was $417,000 which was well below the median priced home of $530,000.
For more great Orange County market insight and industry news visit Laguna Niguel Real Estate or view the Orange County Market Trends at Orange County Real Estate.
Listen to Zen's Laguna Niguel Real Estate Podcast available 24/7.
SEARCH ORANGE COUNTY'S BEST HOMES at http://www.ocdreamhomesandland.com/
As of April 2nd, 2008 according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) the total number of active listings in Laguna Hills totaled 202 homes (condos, townhomes and single family homes). This is down 73 homes from February 2008 with a total of 275 homes on the market. We have seen a nice pick up in Orange County home sales in February and March of 2008.
The inventory numbers are holding steady which is a good sign for the market. The FED cut interest rates by .75 basis points in March. This will help keep interest rates fairly low as the bond market decides what to do next. The new conforming loan limits were announced in March. The new conforming loan limit is now $729,750. This will definitely help buyers and sellers in the Orange County housing market. The former conforming rate was $417,000 which was well below the median priced home of $530,000.
For more great Orange County market insight and industry news visit Laguna Niguel Real Estate or view the Orange County Market Trends at Orange County Real Estate.
Listen to Zen's Laguna Niguel Real Estate Podcast available 24/7.
SEARCH ORANGE COUNTY'S BEST HOMES at http://www.ocdreamhomesandland.com/
Laguna Niguel and South Orange County Specialist with 20 years experience & committed to putting YOU and YOUR NEEDS first! I'm here to HELP YOU with anything real estate related.
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