The first 3 months of 2011 are well past and in the record books now so we can start to get a picture of what the Portsmouth area real estate market looks like this year.
The following graph is a comparison of the first quarters of each year for the past 10 years.
You can compare the above numbers to the current (as of 4/11/11) number of 155 active listings for single family homes and condos in Portsmouth.
We’re starting to see an uptick in both the numbers of sold listings as well as the number of pendings (under agreement but not closed) as well as a decrease in the numbers of new listings coming on the market.
Another valuable piece of sales data to determine the current state of the Portsmouth real estate market is the absorption rate, that is, how long does it take a listing to sell.
I calculate it by determining the total number of sales for the past 12 months, which is 254 in Portsmouth, divide that number by 12 months which equals 21.17 sales per month. Next take the current number of active listings which we saw above is 155. By dividing 21.17 into 155 (21.17 ÷ 155 = 7.32) we get the Portsmouth absorption rate of 7.32. The 7.32 number means that we currently have a 7.32 months supply of homes for sale.
Assuming no new listings come on the market, which is not realistic, it would take 7.32 months to sell all the current inventory of homes in Portsmouth. A six month supply of homes is considered by most to be a balanced market, over that number it’s a buyer’s market and under is a seller’s market.
I think in the Portsmouth and most of the Seacoast market we’re fast approaching a balanced market now that some of the oversupply is being sold and/or taken off the market. The second quarter will tell us if that theory is accurate so stay tuned.
Apparently the affordability of American homes is not going unnoticed by both investors and foreign buyers. According to this article from Realtor Magazine. ” A record 33 percent of existing home sales were made to cash buyers in February, the National Association of Realtors recently reported.
The proportion of cash deals could hit 40 percent by the end of the year, predicts Thomas Popik, Research Director for Campbell Communications in Washington, which conducts monthly surveys of 3,000 real estate brokers.”
“Lenders have only been willing to lend to the cream of the crop in terms of credit scores”, says Walter Molony, an NAR spokesman, “As a result you’re seeing a depressed level of traditional buyers.” “But it’s not just investors moving: Many of these cash deals are also coming from a growing number of international buyers.
About 55 percent of international buyers paid cash for their U.S. homes according to an April 2010 by the NAR.”
I’m happy to crunch the real estate numbers for your neighborhood if you live in the Seacoast area.
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